Alternative picks: Week 16, 2019

Alternative picks: Week 16, 2019

by | Dec 20, 2019 | 2019 season, NFL Picks

This thing is seesawing back-and-forth like crazy. Tony gets himself back in the mix with two weeks to go.

Week 15 Tony 10-6
Season Andy 114-109-1

 

Can Andy hang on or does Tony mount a miracle comeback? Just two weeks to go …

1) Tony: Ravens over Browns – If the Ravens win, they should have a chance to rest Lamar Jackson in week 17. If the Browns win, they may still have a glimmer of a playoff chance…and Freddie Kitchens chances of keeping his job climb higher. That alone might be enough to get the Browns to lay down.

2) Andy: Seahawks over Cardinals – Seattle is playing for something. Arizona is not.

3) Andy: 49ers over Rams – Los Angeles just hasn’t been the same team that went to the Super Bowl last year most of the season. San Francisco is fighting for a bye and lost a tough one against Atlanta last week. The 49ers will come out ready.

4) Tony: Steelers over Jets – The Steelers are currently the 6th seed for the playoffs, but they have the Titans breathing down their neck. With a Ravens matchup in Week 17, the Steelers know they have to get the job done this week.

5) Andy: Chiefs over Bears – Kansas City is back on track. The Bears are done. They’re looking to get out of town.

6) Tony: Texans over Buccaneers – The Buccaneers have quietly managed to get to .500, led by Jameis Winston’s fantasy playoff heroics. But they look to be down both Chris Godwin & Mike Evans this week in a tough matchup that could be key to the Texans locking up the AFC South, with the Titans facing a tough game against the Saints.

7) Andy: Broncos over Lions – Denver isn’t good, but the team is trending up a bit under Drew Lock. Detroit is worse than Denver and they’ve largely quit.

8) Tony: Dolphins over Bengals – Wonder if Brian Flores got any of those Patriots videos…

9) Andy: Falcons over Jaguars – Wow. THAT is ballsy, taking the Dolphins in the upper half of a confidence pool. I don’t care how bad Cincy is. I’m impressed. I’ll go the Falcons, who have played better the second half of the season, while the Jaguars have barely shown up.

10) Tony: Colts over Panthers – I can almost guarantee that Marlon Mack has a big day, since he torpedoed our fantasy championship hopes in Week 15. The Panthers appear to finally be giving Will Grier a chance, so I’ll go the other way.

11) Andy: Saints over Titans – Tennessee has had a nice second half, but the last three games are tough and last week’s loss to the Texans really hurt the postseason chances. New Orleans is still in line for a bye.

12) Tony: Raiders over Chargers – Yeah, probably should have taken the Saints…I think I forgot that game was still on the board since I was talking about the Titans earlier. Here, the finger pointing has started in Oakland…but it’s been going on in Los Angeles for weeks. Will be interesting to see if the Black Hole descends on the Chargers soccer stadium to continue raining trash and abuse on the Raiders as they prepare to move east…

13) Andy: Cowboys over Eagles – Dallas sucks, but Philly is worse.

14) Tony: Patriots over Bills – Buffalo is good, New England is still better. Maybe.

15) Andy: Packers over Vikings – YES!!! I was hoping that would happen – I think Buffalo is playing better football right now. Admittedly, that could change in a heartbeat. But I was going to take Buffalo next. Instead, I’ll take Tony’s strategy and choose the Vikings opponent in a game I see as a tossup, because then I’ll have a reason to be happy if the home team doesn’t come through.

16) Tony: Washington over Giants – Why am I going Washington? Because I have to pick someone.

Tony’s pretty well got the straight-up picks locked up for the season. He added a couple more wins to his lead last week.

Week 15 Season
Tony 11-5 143-80-1
Andy 9-7 132-91-1

 

Week 16, here we come …

Tony Andy
Ravens Ravens
Seahawks Seahawks
49ers 49ers
Steelers Steelers
Chiefs Chiefs
Buccaneers Buccaneers
Broncos Broncos
Dolphins Dolphins
Falcons Falcons
Colts Colts
Saints Saints
Raiders Chargers
Eagles Cowboys
Patriots Bills
Packers Packers
Washington Giants
Bet the Mortgage: Week 16, 2019

Bet the Mortgage: Week 15, 2019

by | Dec 13, 2019 | 2019 season, NFL Gambling

Last week sucked. But there’s nothing to do but get right back on the bike and try again – which is easier when the money you are still losing was found money to begin with … even if it is just hypothetical found money.

Week W/L Week $ Season W/L Season $ Bankroll
Andy 1-3 -$2,650 28-25-3 +$5,015 $15,015
Tony 1-3 -$2,071 27-27-2 +$9,715 $19,715

Here we go: (more…)

Bet the Mortgage: Week 16, 2019

Bet the Mortgage: Week 14, 2019

by | Dec 5, 2019 | 2019 season, NFL Gambling

 

Tony hit the jackpot in week 13, going 4-0 with an aggressive slate of bets that has his bankroll at more than double the starting point. Andy lost a little ground, but still sits comfortably ahead for the year.

Week W/L Week $ Season W/L Season $ Bankroll
Andy 2-2 -$1,105 27-22-3 +$7,665 $17,665
Tony 4-0 +$6,810 26-24-2 +$11,786 $21,786

 

Andy: Congratulations to Tony for a monstrous week. He’s buying our mythical dinner the next time we go out. I’m thinking a nice steakhouse.

$1,750 – Kansas City at New England: Over 48.5 – Tony said in our picks segment that New England under Brady & Belichick rarely lose two in a row. I can’t disagree with that, though I’m not sure the trend continues. I do expect points to be scored in this game. The Patriots defense is good, but Kansas City doesn’t get completely shut down by anybody. And New England’s offense is less than it used to be, but the Chiefs don’t stop anyone. This total is actually down from opening at 50.5. Not sure I completely understand why.

$1,000 – Chicago (+3, +110) vs Dallas – I usually avoid Thursday games like the plague. But this one just feels weird. Sure, the Bears are one of the biggest disappointments in the league this season. But they have won three of four. Dallas is also among the league’s letdown teams this year. And the Cowboys have lost three of four. The Bears are at home. Both teams have had a week to prepare since they played on Thanksgiving … I’m just confused by this one. So … go Bears.

$1,000 – New York Jets (-5, -110) vs Miami – The Jets had the misfortune of starting Miami’s mini-3-and-2 hot streak the first week of November. And last week they became Cincinnati’s first victim, as well. New York did beat Washington, though. I really can’t see them losing to the Dolphins twice. The number came down from -7.5, which I would not have touched, but … at home, where the Jets are 3-3 both straight-up and against the spread, this feels like a semi-comfortable pick … maybe.

$1,000 – New York Giants (+380 money line) at Philadelphia – Eli Manning, at least temporarily, gets his starting job back. No pressure. All of the weapons back. The Eagles are struggling big time right now. I think Manning goes in with nothing to lose and lights up the Link.

Tony:

Mythical dinner at a mythical steak house. Hope they have kabobs (non-Zoneblitz inside joke). I missed the early games again this week…so limiting my choices a bit.

$1,500 – Pittsburgh (-2.5, -105) at Arizona – Even on the road, even with their third string QB, the Steelers are better than the Cardinals.

$1,500 – New England (-3, -105) over Kansas City – Until someone beats them at home, always bet on the Patriots.

$1,500 – Seattle (+1, -110) at LA Rams – I get a point and still have -110 payout?  Yes, please.

$500 – Jacksonville (+165 moneyline) vs LA Chargers – Chargers don’t travel east well (or stay home well), and the Jags are rolling with Gardner Minshew.