With the real NFL kickoff just hours away (no one really cares about the Thursday night game, right? Especially when it’s a bird brawl with a team with a bunch of redneck, hick fans facing off against the Atlanta Falcons?), it’s time to bring back our ever popular present series from last year, the alternative pick series, where Andy and I choose the week’s slate of games, with $1 on the line per game.
Last year it wasn’t pretty…I’m not sure we ever actually updated the final standings, but with an even split in week 17, I managed to finish the season with a 141-111 split…ignoring that somehow our math by season’s end apparently caused us to miss 4 games.
We actually picked these games on Thursday, but haven’t had a chance to post yet:
16: Andy: Ravens over Bills
15: Tony: Saints over Bucs – The Bucs didn’t look that great last year, and are missing Jameis Winston for three games, and starting Peyton Barber at RB…despite the fact that I need him to produce in several fantasy leagues, I’m not optimistic.
14: Tony: Rams over Raiders – My favorite tweet after the Khalil Mack trade: Everyone else is playing chess while Jon Gruden is playing Go Fish. Sums up what I expect of the Raiders this year. Good luck in Vegas.
13: Andy: Lions over Jets
12: Tony: Jaguars over Giants – The Giants picked up the darling of fantasy fanatics in Saquon Barkley. Wonder how many tackles he’ll have today?
11: Andy: Packers over Bears
10: Tony: Panthers over Cowboys – I’m not expecting the Norv Turner/Cam Newton experiment to yield huge riches, but with a banged up offensive line and an overrated quarterback of their own, I think the Cowboys struggle this year.
9: Andy: New England over Houston
8: Tony: Titans over Dolphins – The Dolphins return Ryan Tannehill as starting quarterback…and start preparing for 2019.
7: Andy: Pittsburgh over Cleveland
6: Tony: Chargers over Chiefs – I think this game will end up being decided by the Chargers high octane offense and the Chiefs putrid defense, rather than Andy Reid’s chronic mismanagement of his offensive weapons. That won’t cost them a game until at least week 2.
5: Andy: Denver over Seattle
4: Tony: Bengals over Colts – Andrew Luck sees his first game action since 2016, and somehow, the offensive talent around him is even worse? At least they finally seem to be focused on building an OL for him…but will he survive to 2019 to see it pay off?
3: Andy: Vikings over 49ers
2: Tony: Falcons over Eagles – I was so sure of this one…if only Matt Ryan could connect with Julio Jones where it matters.
1: Andy: Cardinals over Redskins
In our straight up picks, Andy and I both finished 10-6 in week 17 of 2017, giving me a 169-87 record to end the season (at least the math works there), and Andy finished 153-103.
We both pretty much agreed on the slate of picks above, although just to make things a little interesting, I decided to go with the Seahawks over the Broncos.
Wasn’t sure I/we were going to do this segment in 2018, due to incompetence from the past. But as it turns out I’m a degenerate. So here goes. More details later:
Andy:
$750 – Baltimore (-7.5, -110) vs Buffalo – Nathan Peterman, baby. Not sure the Bills are even trying this year.
$500 – Jacksonville (-3, even) at NY Giants – Giants will be better, but the Jags are for real. The defense makes the difference.
$600 – Cincinnati (+2, -110) at Indianapolis – Bengals win this outright.
$500 – Upset: Chicago (+320 moneyline) at Green Bay – I wrestled with this or Kansas City over San Diego. I don’t expect either, but the payoff is better here. Chicago’s defense is for real. I could see them sneaking up on the Pack.
Tony:
Fine, I’ll take a shot, at least see if I finally can make something big out of this…
$1,000 – Jacksonville (-3, +100) over NY Giants – I don’t care how off the charts Saquon Barkley’s combine was, if the Giants can’t score, they can’t win. The Jags are good enough to shut down OBJ while still stacking the box for Saquon.
$1,000 – LA Chargers (-3.5, +100) over Kansas City – Only one sports book I found was paying the +100, but I’ll take it. I think the Chiefs are going to go through some growing pains this year.
$500 – Seattle at Denver: Over 42 (-102) – Neither defense is what it once was. Russell Wilson will still get the Seahawks in the end zone at least a couple of times, and Case Keenum…well, Brandon McManus has a big leg.
$1,000 – Upset: Chicago (+270 moneyline) over Green Bay – Gotta agree with Andy, the payoff on Cincinnati (+110 at best) isn’t there, so let’s go with the big guns–the moneyline is already moving back here. The Bears may have Khalil Mack on a pitch count, but that might actually help him keep the legs fresh enough to harass Aaron Rodgers…will he make it to his game 2 rematch against Anthony Barr and the Vikings?
Saquon Barkley finds open space and run for a touchdown against Ohio State. Saturday, October 28, 2017. Special to the Reading Eagle: Chris Sponagle
Most logical dynasty fantasy football players have had Saquon Barkley on their radar for some time, and have had him locked in at 1.01 for 2018 rookie drafts since early in his junior season at Penn State. And if we are nothing else, we’d like to think we are logical dynasty fantasy football players–Barkley would be our first pick overall as well (if we had the 1.01 in any of our leagues…we should have, but we chose unwisely when we traded away a first last season, and ended up keeping 1.02 instead of 1.01).
However, we’ve seen some absolutely crazy proposals and deals reported on social media for the 1.01 pick, for the right to take Barkley–deals including LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, and sometimes more–to get a guy who won’t have his first NFL carry for the New York Giants for another 4+ months.
And if you look at his college numbers, it just doesn’t add up.
Yes, Saquon Barkley had 3,843 rushing yards in his rushing career, more than Leonard Fournette or Todd Gurley, and just behind Ezekiel Elliott, the last three big name running backs taken first overall in fantasy drafts.
But when you look deeper, there are some concerns there.
First, he got his 3,843 yards in 38 career games, and 671 total carries–3 more games than Zeke, and 6 more than Fournette, and 8 more than Gurley. He also had 671 carries in his career, meaning his yards per carry was nearly a full half yard behind the next lowest on the list (Fournette).
Second, he only managed 15 total 100+ yard rushing games in his career–and had a yards per carry of 7.72 in those 15 games, while only achieving 4.02 yards per carry in his non-100+ yard games. Of the backs we’ve looked at, only Fournette had a lower yards per carry average in his sub-100 yard rushing games (3.84), although Fournette also had 19 of his 32 career games eclipsing the 100-yard mark (and had a couple of brutal games against Alabama in there).
Finally, not an original take, but look at how Barkley did against some questionable competition, even in his junior season–10 carries for 47 yards against Georgia State, 20 for 56 against Indiana, and 14 for 35 yards against Rutgers. That’s the 4-8 Rutgers team that gave up 182 rushing yards per game. Yes, Penn State won the game 35-6, and Barkley only had 14 carries–but against a team like Rutgers, you should be seeing 14-120-3.
Some will clamor that Barkley’s receiving prowess is why he’s worth the fuss–but he also only had 4 career game with 6 or more catches.
Others will point to his combine measureables–which were definitely impressive. But your going to let the underwear olympics cause you to part with a proven running back who still has a lot of tread on the tires (and possibly additional draft capital) to take a chance on Barkley? Especially with a questionable quarterback and offensive line in New York?
I’ll sit back and collect that draft capital all day long.
More info on this later, but it appears via various announcements on Twitter and other sources that the following players have been named the class of 2018:
0-8 between the two of us in week 14. Good thing this is all mythical money. Vegas could build another mega-casino off us.
Last week
Last week $
Overall
Overall $
Bankroll
Tony
0-4
-$11,500
27-27-2
-$5,561
$4,439
Andy
0-4
-$2,200
20-36
-$10,105
-$105
We’re contractually obligated to finish out this segment through season’s end, so … we’ll take out a hypothetical second mortgage and keep going.
Tony: 0-4? That’s more like it—at least we’re making progress in a direction, rather than kissing the proverbial sister every week. Sure, last week pretty much wiped me out—I may even be talking to Mythical Vinnie to cover this week’s bets. But it’s better than hovering around even…
With Week 9 set to wrap up tonight, we’ve got a pretty good idea of who’s fighting foe the playoffs, versus who’s fighting for jobs, both on the sidelines and on the field.
But who’s leading the pack for the 1st overall pick?
There are currently 10 teams that would seem to have at least a shot at ending up first overall, although the Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals and Chicago Bears already all have 3 wins (versus 5 losses), meaning their shot is slim compared to the rest of this list–although they all are starting at possible top 10 picks, which still isn’t a great spot to be in.
The Indianapolis Colts also have just three wins, but are already at 6 losses with their bye still coming up in a couple of weeks, so they’re a bit higher in the running–they also have a tough schedule remaining, with only one game that I’ve got them pegged to win right now (Week 15 at Baltimore) and a winnable game in Houston against the Texans, now that DeShaun Watson is out, but could just as easily end up 3-13.
But the four teams with the worst current records also have formidable (for them) schedules, which gives them the upper hand:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Current Record: 2-6; Projected Record: 3-13)
The Bucs got thrashed by the Saints yesterday, and may lose Mike Evans for an extra game thanks to his fight, and Jameis Winston for even longer with a shoulder injury. Expectations were a lot higher for this team, but of the three remaining games that appear to be winnable (Week 10 against the Jets, Week 11 against the Dolphins, and Week 13 in Green Bay), with Winston hurt, I currently only have them pegged to win one–the Green Bay game, which could itself be a long shot on the road.
New York Giants (Current Record: 1-7; Projected Record: 3-13)
Another team that had high expectations coming into the season, but never came together and lost several key players to injuries. Even getting to three wins might be extremely difficult, as I have them beating the Cowboys in New York (Week 14), as Ezekiel Elliott might finally be sitting out for his suspension, and Week 16 against the Cardinals, who theoretically might have David Johnson back. They also face the 49ers in Week 10, which is a winnable game–but in San Francisco, I’m actually giving the edge to the 49ers again. More on that below.
Of the terrible teams, the Browns might actually have the “easiest” remaining schedule–they have three games that I’ve pegged them to win, including Week 12 in Cincinnati (where the Bengals have to be close to quitting on Marvin Lewis…again), Week 14 against Green Bay (assuming Aaron Rodgers isn’t back), and Week 16 at Chicago (where John Fox may find himself on yet another hot seat). They also have the beatable Ravens in Week 15, and a Pittsburgh Steelers team in Week 17 that may have the division and first round bye locked up. Still, it’s the Browns, so my 3-13 might be optimistic.
San Francisco 49ers (Current Record: 0-9; Projected Record: 2-14)
When I started to look at this last week (as a part of the Who Wins First article from last week), I had the 49ers pegged for beating the Cardinals yesterday. That obviously didn’t happen. As mentioned above, I am still giving them the benefit of the doubt in hosting the Giants this week, but after that…there’s not much there, even if they get Jimmy Garoppolo up and running. They face a tough Seattle team out of the bye, then have the last game that I currently have them pegged to win when they go to Chicago. They travel to Houston the next week – again, if Garoppolo is playing, they might have a shot – but if not…ending the season with losses to Tennessee, Jacksonville and the LA Rams almost seems inevitable.
Of course, what will each team do with the first overall pick if they have it is the next big question….would the Browns finally take a “Franchise” QB, or would they once again slide back for draft capital, especially with the rumors that some of the top QBs don’t want to go there. Would the 49ers resign Garoppolo and look to help another position? Would the Giants consider pulling a Peyton by drafting Eli Manning’s replacement? Would the Buccaneers consider taking another QB at the #1 overall spot, given the lack of progression from Jameis Winston?
Those are the questions that have already started swirling for these four teams that are facing a final 8 games with little else to look forward to…
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I guess what I am saying Andy P is that transparency is great, just doubt that it improves the results
So what do you mean where you say transparency?
Paul I don’t know what are you trying to say
Let’s say we had a lot more transparency during class of 2025 election - would it have changed outcome?
Paul what do you mean it doesn’t improves outcome