So … oops. This was supposed to go up Friday. Never quite got there – disappointing, because week nine was actually a good one and I was looking forward to bragging rights. Here are the standings:
Week 9 W/L
Week 9
Total W/L
Total $
Bankroll
Andy
3-1
+$1,806
17-19
+$608
$10,608
Tony
3-1
+$3,209
18-18
+$2,199
$12,199
And here are … here were the bets. I guess you’re going to have to take our word for it…
Andy:
$800 – Cleveland (+6, -110) vs Atlanta – The Browns, despite a 2-6 record, are actually 5-4 against the spread. They seemed to start to figure things out in the second half of last week’s game. And it’s not like Atlanta’s defense is clicking on all cylinders this season. Cleveland will keep this close and might win straight up.
$800 – Jacksonville (+3, -115) at Indianapolis – I know the Jaguars have been a disappointment this season. And I know Andrew Luck has been hot in recent weeks. Sooner or later the Jags are going to figure it out. The defense is too good and I still believe the team overall is better than Indianapolis.
$800 – LA Rams (-9.5, -110 ) vs Seattle – Sure, the Seahawks have won four of six, including their last three on the road. Those wins came against Oakland, Detroit and Arizona. This week they have the angry Rams. LA only won in Seattle by two points, but they’re coming off a tough loss and realize they now need to win in order to keep pace with New Orleans for home-field advantage. I think the defense takes a step up in this game and the Rams win handily.
$300 – Arizona (+1,200 money line) at Kansas City – No, it’s not that I think this is going to happen. But this is a college football line, not a pro football one. You almost never see four-figure money lines in the NFL. So, I’ll ride it. If I lose, I’m not out much. But if I win, it’s a significant boost to my budget.
Tony
$1,000 – New England (-7, +110) over Tennessee – A positive payout on a single touchdown spread for the Pats? The Titans are better than I expected, but I don’t think they are going to be able to score more than maybe 14 on the Pats and, even as a Belichick protégé, Vrabel’s Titans aren’t going to keep the Pats under 24.
$1,000 – LA Chargers (-11, +108) over Oakland – Chargers have a road game in California (which they play at least 8 of per year) against a team that has got to be dangerously close to all out revolt against their head coach.
$1,000 – Arizona vs Kansas City: Over 49.5 (-110) – If I were to pick an underbuster this week, I would have picked the Chiefs before I picked the Steelers—but there’s a chance that there’s two underbusters in the same week.
$500 – Cleveland (money line: +230) over Atlanta – There’s a decent number of interesting money line bets this week, in the +200 to +300 range for payouts—I’m going to grab Cleveland because they’re at home, the Falcons are an up and down team, and…maybe week 2 under the interim regime will improve things some heading into the bye.
Pretty good results again in week 10. Tony won, but only two incorrect picks between us.
Here are the standings:
Week 9
Tony 7-6
Season
Andy 67-65-2
Here are this week’s alternative picks:
1) Andy: Chiefs over Cardinals – I don’t think the Cardinals can keep up. Neither does Vegas.
2) Tony: Chargers over Raiders – I have a feeling the Raiders will be pretty high up on this list every week moving forward. Possibly for a few years.
3) Tony: Eagles over Cowboys – The Eagles haven’t looked like the same team from last year. Fortunately for them, the Cowboys have.
4) Andy: Rams over Seahawks – Rams will be mad after Saints debacle.
5) Tony: Falcons over Browns – I get why the Browns made the decision to move on from Hue, but in (another) lost season with back to back games against the Chiefs and Falcons heading into the bye, I wonder if the timing was the best?
6) Andy: Packers over Dolphins – I don’t think Miami can keep up.
7) Tony: Patriots over Titans – Mike Vrabel will want to show his former coach something–and he will. Like how much harder it is to win when you don’t have Tom Brady to throw TD passes to linebackers subbing at TE.
8) Andy: 49ers over Giants – One bad team that is trying against another bad team that is not.
9) Tony: Jets over Bills – What could have been a terrible game with a mildly compelling story of rookie first round quarterbacks facing off is now likely just a terrible game. Yay.
10) Andy: Saints over Bengals – New Orleans proved last week it’s right in the mix to be considered the league’s best.
11) Tony: Jaguars over Colts – Sooner or later that Jags defense is finally going to show up, right?
12) Andy: Bears over Lions – Chicago is a step ahead of Detroit.
13) Tony: Buccaneers over Washington – Washington lost both starting guards to injury last week, and signed three street free agent OL this week. Even against the Bucs defense, they might struggle.
14) Andy: Steelers over Panthers – When you have two good teams in a Thursday night game, I always take the home team.
And in our straight-up picks, Andy loses ground on the Tonys.
Andy followed his good week with … a bad one. And why exactly did he think Arizona and San Francisco would score points? With that bet, he deserves his fate. Tony hit on a couple of +100 bets, so his 2-2 looks pretty good.
Here are the standings after week eight.
Week 8 W/L
Week 8 $
Total W/L
Total $
Bankroll
Andy
1-3
-$1,191
14-18
-$1,198
$8,802
Tony
2-2
+$550
15-17
-$1,010
$8,990
And here are the bets:
Andy
$1,000 – Kansas City (-8, -110) at Cleveland – The Browns are actually 5-3 against the spread this season and I think the coaching change ultimately will do the team well. It’s a bit unfortunate for them that the first game under new leadership comes against a Chiefs team that has scored 38, 42, 27and 40 points in going 3-1 on the road so far. One week isn’t going to provide enough time for the Browns to put together enough to keep this one close.
$800 – Houston (+1.5, -110) at Denver – On rare occasion, I’m actually right when I feel like I find a game where the point spread just doesn’t fit. Last week it was when Baltimore, inexplicably, was a favorite at Carolina. This week I’m looking at the Texans as an underdog against Denver and wondering “what up?” The Texans have won five in a row after a 0-3 start. The offense exploded last week, admittedly against a dying Dolphins squad, but still – it was the second-straight double-digit win. The Broncos have lost five of six and just cut the guy they thought might replace Case Keenum as the starting QB in the near future. And they traded long-time WR Demaryius Thomas – to the Texans, who will use the motivated WR to replace the injured Will Fuller. I think the line should be flipped on this one.
$750 – Washington (-1.5, -110) vs Atlanta – I have no doubt I will regret this pick. Washington is among the hardest teams in the league to figure out the last few years. However, this team is 5-2, including winning four of five as an underdog. The defense has been keeping this team relevant, having given up 21 or fewer points in six of seven games. In a season like the current one, that’s impressive. The Falcons got off to a rough start and that’s a bad sign for them, as they played five of their last six at home. They need to steal a couple on the road to stay relevant this season. I’m not sure they have the defense to make that happen.
$400 – Tennessee (+230 money line) at Dallas – I don’t like many of the money lines this week. So, it’s kind of a coin flip. I went here because … do we really believe that trading for Amari Cooper has made Dallas a powerhouse? The line went from -4 to -6.5 in the course of a few days. The result, to me, actually depends more on which Titans team shows up. The Tennessee people expected to see this season is, I think, better than Dallas, which has proven mediocre.
Tony
$1,500 – Kansas City (-10, +110) at Cleveland – Sometimes a team with a new coach will step up and find a way to win an amazing game that they shouldn’t be able to. And sometimes the team fires a coach heading into a game against possibly the best offense in the NFL. Could still get the Chiefs at -8, but…why?
$1,000 – Carolina (-7, +115) vs Tampa Bay – The 7 points is a pretty big number, but for the +115, I’ll take a shot.
$1,000 – Atlanta at Washington: Over 48 (-110) – Don’t really know why, but this seems like a good bet. So does the Chargers/Seahawks at the same number.
$500 – Detroit (+200 money line) at Minnesota – Only way I can’t lose betting on the home team…if the Vikings win, I’m happy. If they lost, my imaginary sports betting account gets paid.
Andy had a good week. Maybe he’s found a secret? He’s basically breaking even. Can he pull ahead? Tony’s plugging along, a little below the break-even slot. They’re still kind of a joke when it comes to “betting the mortgage,” but maybe there is an inkling of competence there?
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I guess what I am saying Andy P is that transparency is great, just doubt that it improves the results
So what do you mean where you say transparency?
Paul I don’t know what are you trying to say
Let’s say we had a lot more transparency during class of 2025 election - would it have changed outcome?
Paul what do you mean it doesn’t improves outcome