Bet the Mortgage, Week 16

Bet the Mortgage, Week 16

The holiday week, which coincides with a family birthday, has taken its toll on the availability of time this week, so we’ll get the standings updated later. Suffice it to say that betting is a foolish activity and we’ll never be doing it for a living.

Here are our bets for week 16:

Andy:

$1,000 – Dallas (-7, -10) vs Tampa – The Bucs are terrible. And I stacked Prescott, Elliott and Cooper in a DFS tournament I’m in. I’m no Cowboys fan, but … go Dallas.

$1,000 – Green Bay (-3, even) at NY Jets — This game started as a pick ’em. Really? As much as Green Bay has been bad, the Packers are better than the Jets. … I think. Right?

$1,000 – Houston (+2.5, -110) at Philadelphia — I probably should be going the reverse psychology route here, especially after the Ravens win and the Titans near-loss. But the Texans need this to keep in the two seed. I think they knock the Eagles out of the playoff race.

$400 – Cincinnati (+235) at Cleveland — I am squarely on the Cleveland bandwagon. Definitely heading in the right direction. But teams like that slip up sometimes. This in-state rivalry would be a perfect time for that … besides, we need to stop Mayfield, Chubb and the Cleveland defense to win a fantasy league.

Tony: 

$2,000 – LA Chargers (-4, -105) over Baltimore – The line opened at 6, and has moved in Baltimore’s favor, despite the fact that the Chargers are at home (which isn’t a great stadium advantage, but at least they didn’t really have to travel) and they’re fighting for the top seed in the AFC.

$2,000 – Chicago (-4.5, -110) over San Francisco – Yes, the Bears are on the road–and they’ve already locked up the division–but they’re still playing for a bye, and they’re just better than San Francisco, with as many 49ers hurt as there are.

$1,000 – Jacksonville at Miami: Under 38.5 – Normally a number this low screams “Take the over!” Not with these two teams playing.

$1,000 – New York Jets (+130 moneyline) over Green Bay – It’s not a sexy pick, but if I have a chance to add some fictional cash to my fictional pants pockets, especially at the expense of the Packers, I’ll take it. The Packers season is over–they might even rest Aaron Rodgers if things start to look bad–and they’re new to playing with nothing on the line (this season), whereas the Jets are used to it.  Add in the Packers travel, and they might just mail one in.

Bet the Mortgage, Week 16

Bet the Mortgage: Week 15, 2018

Andy hit the big Raiders/Steelers upset in this segment last week, making his 2-2 record look a lot better in the bankroll column. Tony also went 2-2, but he got the wrong games right.

Standings:

Week 14 W/L Week 14 $ Total W/L Total $ Bankroll
Andy 2-2 +$1,677 24-31-1 -$2,193 $7,807
Tony 2-2 -$79 25-31 -$3,300 $6,700

 

Maybe one of these clowns can rip off a hot streak before the season ends. Here goes:

Andy (more…)

Alternative picks: Week 16, 2018

Alternative picks — Week 15, 2018

Andy’s hot streak slowed a bit, has he hit just five of his eight picks in week 14, but he still picked up a game on Tony, who was .500 on his own selections. It’s becoming less a question of whether Andy will win the season and more a question of by how much.

Standings:

Week 14 Andy 9-7
Season Andy 115-91-2

Here are the alternative picks for week 15.

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Bet the Mortgage, Week 16

Bet the Mortgage: Week 14, 2018

Could Andy be anymore inconsistent? Last week he went 4-0 after two weeks of 1-7. Now he’s 0-4 again. The teeter-tottering is dizzying. Tony also had a rough week, though the Chargers’ big comeback against Pittsburgh saved him from a winless week.

Here are the standings:

Week 13 W/L Week 13 $ Total W/L Total $ Bankroll
Andy 0-4 -$4,100 22-29-1 -$3,870 $6,130
Tony 1-3 -$2,450 23-29 -$3,221 $6,779

Andy:

$800 – Cleveland (+2.5, -110) vs Carolina – People aren’t buying into the Browns yet – perhaps understandably so. But they’re playing well of late and I’m on the bandwagon. I can’t figure out why people are buying Carolina right now. The Panthers have been putrid.

$1,000 – L. A. Rams (-3, -110) at Chicago – This number is coming down from a 4.5 opening. Chicago is solid, but has built its resume mostly by beating teams that are either bad or that were struggling when they played. The Rams are a legit contender and I think they show the Bears they are still a year or two away.

$800 – New Orleans at Tampa Bay: Over 55.5 – This number has come down since opening at 57.5. Back in week one, however, these teams combined to put up 88, as the Bucs upset the Saints in the Superdome. This one will be outside but New Orleans has better weapons for countering the move to grass these days. What this comes down to is the Bucs have mostly been good enough to score on anyone and mostly bad enough to let everyone score at will on them.

$500 – Oakland (+550) vs Pittsburgh – Apparently the Raiders really have the Steelers number in recent years. I don’t see this result happening, but Pittsburgh could come out flat after a comeback loss to the Chargers. And maybe the Roethlisberger curse is real.

Tony:

$500 – Saints (-9.5, -110) at Tampa Bay – Bucs suck. Even at home can’t keep up with the Saints.

$500 – Texans (-4.5, -110) vs Indianapolis – The Colts are improved, but enough to travel to Houston and win?  Even with the points?

$500 – Minnesota at Seattle: Under 46 (-107) – Couple of solid defenses and offenses that would prefer to run.

$500 – Minnesota (moneyline: +155) at Seattle – Know what happens when you don’t get your bets in on time?  You end up betting on your team (which you hate doing) to upset a team with a better record on the road.