Slow and steady wins the race … or something like that.
Both of us made slow, incremental progress in week one toward mythical riches and fame. Andy was 2-2, but hit the ones that mattered for a slight profit. Tony was 2-1-1, though a late TD from Drew-Brees-to-Coby-Fleener kept him from winning the under on Saints/Vikings Monday night.
Since he’s usually about half his bankroll in after week one, a nearly $1,000 windfall is a pretty good result for him. So here’s where we stand:
I think the strongest teams in the league this season overall reside in the AFC. But a look at the NFC reveals that there are definitely a handful of teams that on a good day will push the best of the best.
The truth again probably lies somewhere between what I really think and what I came up with at the playoffpredictors site.
We debated whether or not to bring this segment back this season. We probably should have killed it, lest anyone actually take our betting advice. But it turns out we’re just a bit too degenerate to stop.
So here we go again. We’ll start with a $10,000 bankroll and see how we manage it throughout the season.
I was going to skip the preview this season – somewhere around nine people read the ones we did last year. Previews come from everywhere – it didn’t seem like people were clamoring for more.
Then I came across a site where, in about 10 minutes, I could run through every game on the schedule and the site would keep track of won-loss records, playoff seedings, tiebreakers, etc. So I figured WTF.
I filled it out and I laughed at some of my results. Pittsburgh 15-1? I think they win the division, but I don’t think they’re good enough to run the table to that extent. The bottom three teams in the AFC East (everyone but the Patriots) combining for seven wins? Nah. There’s some bad football going on, particularly in New York, but they won’t be that bad.
Nonetheless, when you set aside the records, or at least look at them with a grain of salt, the rankings came pretty close to what I was thinking I thought. So … WTF. Here are some of my thoughts – hopefully the nine of you who enjoyed these posts last year think it was worthwhile to return.
Explanation: Again, I don’t expect the Steelers to go 15-1. I don’t expect them to win the top seed. I do expect them to win the division and I could see them in a deep competition for the second bye. Baltimore could do a bit better. I’m uncertain about the QB and the run game but I really like John Harbaugh. They’re a wild card contender, as far as I am concerned.
I’ve thought Cincinnati was on the downhill slide for a couple seasons. The offensive line defections, Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler, will hurt an offense run by a barely good enough QB and Cincy will see the end of the Marvin Lewis era at season’s end. On the north side of Ohio, I think the Browns are finally headed in the right direction. That said, they’re playing a rookie QB and coming off a nearly winless season. Five wins would represent solid improvement.
AFC South
Tennessee 13-3
Houston 8-8
Jacksonville 6-10
Indianapolis 1-15
Explanation:
This is another situation where the records are off a bit, but the order is spot on. I don’t think the Titans are quite ready to hit 13-3. But I do think Marcus Mariota and the smashmouth run game will continue improving, and I think the division is ripe for the taking. Tennessee is the best of the lot, in my eyes. Houston has a great defense, but until the QB situation is settled – and I think Deshaun Watson will eventually be the guy there – they’re going to struggle on offense. Houston may be a game or two better than .500, but this spot feels right. Jacksonville is in a similar, albeit younger spot. I like a lot of the talent the Jags have. I am close to giving up on Blake Bortles. A 6-10 mark could potentially show some improvement, but how the QB develops will be the main point in determining the success or lack thereof in 2017.
The Colts won’t be 1-15 bad – unless Andrew Luck is out for the season. Scott Tolzien is a stiff. But all signs point to Luck coming back. I also think the new GM Chris Ballard is making some good, behind-the-radar moves to make things better there. But he’s got a bit of a mess to clean up. The defense will still be bad and the offense will take a while to get up to full speed with Luck and center Ryan Kelly not yet healthy.
AFC East
New England 14-2
Buffalo 4-12
Miami 2-14
New York Jets 1-15
Explanation:
The records went a bit off the rails here. I do expect some bad football from the bottom of this division, especially from the Jets, where 1-15 may not be off target. I see Miami and Buffalo both as closer to six- to eight-win teams. QB play among all three of these teams is an ongoing issue and there are not enough supporting parts on any of the teams to make up for that lack of a star at the helm.
That said, the Patriots remain the class of this division. In this case, I see 14-2 as very close to spot on. I think the Pats clinch the division by Thanksgiving and take the one seed in the conference.
AFC West
Denver 14-2
Kansas City 11-5
Oakland 10-6
Los Angeles 9-7
Explanation:
As bad as the East is, I think the West is this good. I do not see Denver going 14-2. The QB play won’t be good enough. And it’s possible the defense falls a notch. That said, this is still a top-notch, competitive team that will be right in the mix for the division and an upper seed in the playoffs. My pre-season picks puts the Broncos as the third seed. I can see it.
But Kansas City and, in particular, Oakland, will push Denver all season long. I am a huge fan of Derek Carr. I think Marshawn Lynch disappoints those who think he’ll come back and consistently show “Beast Mode” skills from the past, but he’ll be a threat at the goal line. The Raiders are close. Same with the Chiefs, though they’ll rely more on the defense for now. I am looking forward to the Patrick Mahomes era. I think he could be a really good QB. Soon.
The Chargers continue to have holes on the offensive line and Philip Rivers is aging fast. So, especially in this division, the window is barely open. But there is a crack. And if they can win some of the close ones they lost last season, the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers will not be an easy win for anyone.
Under Ozzie Newsome and John Harbaugh, Baltimore is almost always competitive. But an 8-8 season in 2016 left the team out of the playoffs for the third season in four years.
The team was better last year than in 2015, but a number of late game letdowns cost the team some close games.
Now, heading into 2017, the team has seen a lot of turnover. And Joe Flacco is another year older. Has the team adequately enough addressed its needs to become a postseason player yet again? Or is this team still enough of a work in progress that it’s going to take a season or two before it can again seriously chase the Lombardi Trophy?
Zoneblitz: The Ravens improved at least in almost all facets on offense and defense in 2016, but still landed at 8-8 and out of the playoffs for the third time in four years. How would you assess the season?
Lombardi: Disappointing.
The Ravens offense failed to commit to running the ball and that put unnecessary pressure on the offensive line and Joe Flacco. The defense struggled to get off the field in the fourth quarter and relinquished leads during winnable games. One or two fourth quarter stops and maybe the season ends differently. The Ravens were a microcosm of the NFL in 2016 – a league with several teams that could have been as weak as (6-10) or as strong as (10-6). That’s the parity the league seeks.
Zoneblitz: Joe Flacco has been pretty solid for most of the last nine years. What’s his shelf life? Have or should the Ravens started looking toward the next QB?
Lombardi: I don’t see a decline in Flacco just yet. Physically I think he still has what it takes to compete successfully. That said, the moment his physical gifts start to decline, I think his decent will happen rapidly. He doesn’t do the little things that the best quarterbacks do. He’s not cerebral. He lacks the cognitive skills to effectively make the proper pre-snap reads; he doesn’t use cadence as a weapon and post-snap, he too often fails to allow plays to develop. He gets away with a lot because of his physical gifts. What happens when they’re gone?
As for a successor, I think Flacco has at least 2, possibly 3 good seasons left in him. Therefore, I think it’s important for the Ravens to draft a QB in 2018 or 2019 and begin the developmental process. It doesn’t have to be a first-round guy, but it can’t be a Day 3 draft pick either.
Zoneblitz: Steve Smith is gone. Mike Wallace isn’t young. Breshad Perriman has a history of injuries. Kenneth Dixon is suspended to start the season. Danny Woodhead has arrived. And Dennis Pitta has suffered another hip injury. What is the skill talent surrounding Flacco going to look like this season? Who has to step up? (more…)
During the Peyton Manning era and the first couple years of Andrew Luck’s tenure, double-digit wins were a given in Indianapolis. But the last two seasons, a subpar defense, the inability to protect Andrew Luck and some questionable draft decisions have knocked the Colts down a peg.
The 2016 season resulted in a second consecutive 8-8 mark and another year of watching the postseason from home.
But the Colts have a new GM who focused on filling defensive holes during the draft. Will it be enough to get Indy back in contention for a playoff run? Andrew Aziz, an analyst with Stampede Blue, shares his insight.
Zoneblitz: – After having double-digit wins in 12 of 13 seasons, the Colts have had consecutive 8-8 years. How would you assess 2016?
Aziz: 2016 was a very odd year for the Colts. They lost a lot of very close games, which reflects poorly on the head coach. At the same time, they had very little talent outside of Andrew Luck, which reflects poorly on the general manager. I still don’t understand how the Colts lost to the Texans in overtime. Had they won that game, they would have been in the playoffs, and we would be talking differently about that 2016 team. They also lost close games to the Lions, the Jaguars and the Texans twice. One could argue that the Colts were one stop away from being an 11- or 12-win team. On the other-hand, with close wins against the Bears, Chargers, Jaguars (second game), and Packers, you could argue that the Colts were one series away from being a 4- or 5-win team.
Zoneblitz: Do you agree with the decision to fire GM Ryan Grigson but keep coach Chuck Pagano? How hot is Pagano’s seat in 2017 and what is your assessment of new GM Chris Ballard so far? (more…)
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