With Week 9 set to wrap up tonight, we’ve got a pretty good idea of who’s fighting foe the playoffs, versus who’s fighting for jobs, both on the sidelines and on the field.
But who’s leading the pack for the 1st overall pick?
There are currently 10 teams that would seem to have at least a shot at ending up first overall, although the Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals and Chicago Bears already all have 3 wins (versus 5 losses), meaning their shot is slim compared to the rest of this list–although they all are starting at possible top 10 picks, which still isn’t a great spot to be in.
The Indianapolis Colts also have just three wins, but are already at 6 losses with their bye still coming up in a couple of weeks, so they’re a bit higher in the running–they also have a tough schedule remaining, with only one game that I’ve got them pegged to win right now (Week 15 at Baltimore) and a winnable game in Houston against the Texans, now that DeShaun Watson is out, but could just as easily end up 3-13.
But the four teams with the worst current records also have formidable (for them) schedules, which gives them the upper hand:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Current Record: 2-6; Projected Record: 3-13)
The Bucs got thrashed by the Saints yesterday, and may lose Mike Evans for an extra game thanks to his fight, and Jameis Winston for even longer with a shoulder injury. Expectations were a lot higher for this team, but of the three remaining games that appear to be winnable (Week 10 against the Jets, Week 11 against the Dolphins, and Week 13 in Green Bay), with Winston hurt, I currently only have them pegged to win one–the Green Bay game, which could itself be a long shot on the road.
New York Giants (Current Record: 1-7; Projected Record: 3-13)
Another team that had high expectations coming into the season, but never came together and lost several key players to injuries. Even getting to three wins might be extremely difficult, as I have them beating the Cowboys in New York (Week 14), as Ezekiel Elliott might finally be sitting out for his suspension, and Week 16 against the Cardinals, who theoretically might have David Johnson back. They also face the 49ers in Week 10, which is a winnable game–but in San Francisco, I’m actually giving the edge to the 49ers again. More on that below.
Of the terrible teams, the Browns might actually have the “easiest” remaining schedule–they have three games that I’ve pegged them to win, including Week 12 in Cincinnati (where the Bengals have to be close to quitting on Marvin Lewis…again), Week 14 against Green Bay (assuming Aaron Rodgers isn’t back), and Week 16 at Chicago (where John Fox may find himself on yet another hot seat). They also have the beatable Ravens in Week 15, and a Pittsburgh Steelers team in Week 17 that may have the division and first round bye locked up. Still, it’s the Browns, so my 3-13 might be optimistic.
San Francisco 49ers (Current Record: 0-9; Projected Record: 2-14)
When I started to look at this last week (as a part of the Who Wins First article from last week), I had the 49ers pegged for beating the Cardinals yesterday. That obviously didn’t happen. As mentioned above, I am still giving them the benefit of the doubt in hosting the Giants this week, but after that…there’s not much there, even if they get Jimmy Garoppolo up and running. They face a tough Seattle team out of the bye, then have the last game that I currently have them pegged to win when they go to Chicago. They travel to Houston the next week – again, if Garoppolo is playing, they might have a shot – but if not…ending the season with losses to Tennessee, Jacksonville and the LA Rams almost seems inevitable.
Of course, what will each team do with the first overall pick if they have it is the next big question….would the Browns finally take a “Franchise” QB, or would they once again slide back for draft capital, especially with the rumors that some of the top QBs don’t want to go there. Would the 49ers resign Garoppolo and look to help another position? Would the Giants consider pulling a Peyton by drafting Eli Manning’s replacement? Would the Buccaneers consider taking another QB at the #1 overall spot, given the lack of progression from Jameis Winston?
Those are the questions that have already started swirling for these four teams that are facing a final 8 games with little else to look forward to…
Week eight was middle of the road. We both went 2-2, which for one of us is a disappointment and the other is a relief. Tony, who has mostly been winning this year, has to be disappointed to barely add enough to his winnings to provide an evening’s worth of Blackjack at the local casino — especially given that his bravado in taking the Patriots and giving an extra point cost him a 3-1 week.
Easy come, easy go, I guess.
Andy, on the other hand, has been digging himself out of the muck most of the season. And, thus, winning $736 and cutting into his seasonal debt can only be classified as a win.
Tony won again in week eight, but at least it was a contest. Actually, both Andy and Tony picked every game they selected correctly – Tony just happened to pick one more game than Andy.
With both the Cleveland Browns and the San Francisco 49ers sitting at 0-8, I’ve been doing a little research into winless streaks to start NFL seasons in the NFL, as it seems like both teams at this point are possibly bad enough that they could end up challenging the 2008 Detroit Lions to become the next team to go winless in a 16 game season.
So far in my research, it appears that the last time we had two teams start the season 0-8 was in 2013, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars both started with the dubious mark.
In that season, both teams managed to pull out their first win in Week 10, with Jacksonville winning first on Sunday (coming off a Week 9 bye) over the Tennessee Titans, and the Bucs pulling out a Monday night victory over the Miami Dolphins, in what I’m sure was yet another ratings boon for ESPN.
This season, Cleveland is heading into a Week 9 bye after falling to the Minnesota Vikings in London in week 8. The Browns have already lost their best player for the season, in tackle Joe Thomas, and have already started two different quarterbacks (and played three) who have combined for a 7 TD to 17 INT ratio.
The 49ers head into week 9 with two things going for them–first, as of last night, they acquired New England Patriots backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, in a deal they hope works out better than their last trade for a Patriots quarterback. While there’s no word yet on whether or not Garoppolo will play in Week 9 (seems a stretch), the 49ers will also be facing an Arizona Cardinals team that is without starting RB David Johnson and QB Carson Palmer. In my eyes, this makes the Week 9 matchup for the 49ers extremely winnable–and I’ve gone so far as to pick them in our weekly picks (albeit with the last selection in our alternating format).
The 49ers nearly beat the Cardinals with Carson Palmer in week 4, losing 18-15 in the first of two consecutive overtime games, and the 3rd in a stretch of five games they lost by a field goal or less. Unfortunately, their last two losses have been blowouts, losing a combined 73-20, making the decision to start CJ Beathard over Brian Hoyer a significant question, and making the need to make a move for Garoppolo even more obvious.
And if the 49ers don’t win in Week 9, there’s still a shot they could taste victory before the Browns, as the Browns come back from the bye with a trip to Detroit to play the Lions, while the 49ers host the New York Giants, who have nearly matched the ineptitude of the two teams in question.
After that, the 49ers face their bye week, while the Browns host the suddenly formidable Jacksonville Jaguars. If both teams are winless at that point, the Browns have the best chance in week 12, traveling to Cincinnati, while the 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks.
Over the course of the rest of the year, by my estimation there appears to be 4 winnable games for Cleveland on the schedule (@ Cincinnati, @ LA Chargers, vs. Green Bay, and @ Chicago)–although the Browns could just as easily lose all four. After their game against the Giants, I only see one more game that looks very winnable for the 49ers, their home game against Chicago–although who knows what Garoppolo could do for the team.
My final prediction? Both teams end up 2-12, vying for the first pick in the draft–which both teams would be looking to trade.
This is turning into some Harlem Globetrotters/Washington Generals exhibition side show.
It was another hideous week for Andy, who is currently checking with his accountant to see if it’s legally allowable to pay off debts with funds from his daughter’s college account.
…
…
We’re kidding. … We hope.
At any rate, Tony’s commanding lead got bigger. Andy’s left pondering, once again, whether the game has passed him by. … Or whether there was ever really a time in which it was sitting in front of him and he actually knew what was going on.
With that little bit of positivity, here are the standings:
Week 7
Tony 10-5
Total
65-37
Andy, again, gets to choose. He goes first. And here are Tony’s winners, err, we mean the picks for this week. (more…)
Tony’s dominating picks in the first half of the season and he’s dominating bets, as well.
He didn’t have a great week – just 2-2, resulting in a $139 loss for the week – but that puts him well in front of Andy, whose good week five appears to have been a mirage.
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