Well, another week, another split for Andy and I–we both went 1-1 in the AFC (who would have thought the Patriots could outlast that pesky Titans squad, eh?), and we each got a different one wrong in the NFC–Andy missing with his pick of the Falcons, while I missed on the game that I was hoping I would miss. We’ll jump straight into this Sunday’s big match ups.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots – Sunday, January 21st, 2018 – 1:05PM kickoff
Tony: Conference Championship Sunday will start with the match up everyone expected in the AFC, the New England Patriots hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. I mean, you all picked Jacksonville to kick three kinds of dog crap out of Pittsburgh, right? And don’t let the final score (45-42) trick you–the game wasn’t that close. Of course, there is one concerning thing for Jaguars fans about that score–the fact that their 2nd ranked defense gave up 42 points at all. The Steelers are a good team, but the Patriots are better.
Andy: I wouldn’t be too hard on the Jaguars’ defense. Jacksonville got off to a quick start and, for the majority of the game, never led by fewer than two scores. Just like in the Vikings game, the winner was going up against a potentially Hall of Fame caliber QB who wasn’t going to shrivel up in a ball and quit. And the Jaguars offense, when needed, showed up and made plays — I did not think there was any chance the Jags won a shootout, but I was wrong.
Now, they do need to regroup a bit. The Steelers will throw out a clunker every now and again and they were minus Ryan Shazier, which left them vulnerable to the run the last several weeks. The Patriots aren’t likely to do so. New England, I believe, is on another “us against the world” journey following reports if internal dissension. This will be a much tougher nut for the Cats to crack.
Tony: Like many, I didn’t give the Jaguars much of a chance against the Steelers. And like many, I’m not giving them much of a chance against the Patriots. To say it couldn’t happen, though, is folly. The Steelers were third in passing offense, and third in overall offense. The Patriots had the top ranked overall offense in the NFL, but they were led by their passing game (2nd overall, 276.1 yards per game)–so it’s not like the Patriots offense is significantly superior to the one the Jags just faced. The Jags had the best passing defense in the league, at just 169.9 yards per game, although they were 21st against the run (a stat that moved up with the acquisition of Marcell Dareus). While it seems unlikely that the Jags will completely shut down Tom Brady, they can undoubtedly cause him some problems, and/or force the Pats to focus on their run game, not something that they are known for having the patience of.
On the flip side, the Patriots have the 20th ranked run defense, and 30th ranked pass defense–facts that should have Leonard Fournette licking his chops, as long as his ankle is healthy. And for all of his detractors, Blake Bortles played exactly like they will need him to against the Patriots–not huge yardage, but moving the ball well when needed, and putting them in a position to score on the ground.
Andy: While all the statistics say the Jags have a shot and this could be a good game, there are a couple factors that say otherwise: Tom Brady is mountains better than Blake Bortles. Bill Belichick is more experienced, established and, at least at this point, better than Doug Marrone. And the Patriots have been winning games like these for a decade-and-a-half. The Jags … they’ve been mostly irrelevant during that timeframe. Jacksonville is back — make no mistake — they will be in games like this for several years to come. But New England wins this one, 30-13.
Tony: There are all kinds of factors that say the Patriots should clean up this game rather easily–just like there were factors that pointed to the Jaguars getting killed by the Steelers. I don’t think that the Patriots will make the biggest mistake that I suspect the Steelers made, which is looking past the Jaguars–but I do think that the Jags will give them a game. I’ve got the Patriots winning 20-10.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday, January 21st, 2018 – 4:40PM kickoff
Tony: On the NFC side, the Minnesota Vikings will travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles after their stunning, last second victory over the New Orleans Saints. As a Vikings fan, my biggest fears right now are 1) a let down after the huge comeback win, 2) a misguided belief that the Vikings are “destined” to play in their home Super Bowl leading to over confidence, and 3) whether or not Andrew Sendejo will be out of concussion protocol (which I never would have guessed would have been a concern).
Andy: I think Mike Zimmer is a pretty good coach and he has plenty of ammunition on his players to make sure they get focused on Philadelphia. Namely, he can play off of how they gave up a 17-0 halftime lead. So I’m not too worried about losing because they suddenly think they are a team of destiny.
What does worry me a bit is that in the Eagles game against Atlanta it looked like Philly had found a way to use Nick Foles as a strength, or at least as a neutral figure, while avoiding his deficiencies. That, coupled with another strong defense, do make the Eagles a threat that for a bit it looked like they weren’t going to be. I suspect neither team will get off to a 17 point lead this week and, if one of the teams does, I feel equally confident that there will not be a huge comeback, as nobody in this game is as equipped as Drew Brees to make that kind of rally happen.
Tony: Nick Foles isn’t as bad as the reputation that he has had the last 2 months, but this is the guy who was benched in his last year in St. Louis in favor of…Case Keenum. On the plus side, I believe the Eagles really need the run game to take the pressure off him–and while they only managed 25-78 against the Falcons, they might struggle to get even that much against the Vikings. And while the Falcons defense is pretty solid, I’m not sure that Foles can manage 23/30 for 246 against the Vikings either.
What may be the most interesting match up of the game will actually be the Vikings offense against the Eagles defense–across the lines especially. Fletcher Cox in particular will be a tough load for the Vikings OL to handle, but if the Vikings can manage the same 88 yards on the ground that the Falcons got, I think the Vikings will be in decent shape.
Andy: I don’t think by saying Nick Foles is unlikely to replicate what Drew Brees did that I’m saying he is a bad QB. Brees is one of the best and he has great weapons around him. Foles is a solid backup QB. But he doesn’t have skillset as Brees and the surrounding talent is less explosive. So Philly has to stay close or get ahead early, that’s all.
I do agree with the last part. If the Vikings can’t handle the d-line, it’s going to be a long day. It might be anyway. I don’t expect a lot of scoring in this game. There could be a lot of punting, running on third down and field-positioning in this one.
Tony: Ultimately, while my confidence in the Vikings against the Saints seemed to dwindle as the week went on–right now, as I dig into the game against the Eagles, my confidence seems to be increasing–and as a Vikings fan, that scares me. Of course, I’ve avoided picking the Vikings all season long, something I continued last week in picking the Saints. So this week, I’m going to once again hope I’m wrong, and pick the Eagles gutting out a narrow victory, 17-16.
Andy: I know you’re superstitious about the Vikings. And I also try to avoid getting too amped up, knowing the history. But this team warrants your confidence. They just have a bit of a different feel this season, a more resilient feel. That’s a bit nebulous, I know, but I’ve felt this way from about mid-season. If the Eagles were coming into this game with Carson Wentz, I would definitely look at it differently. That’s not a knock on Foles as much as it is a credit to Wentz — the Eagles, at times, looked almost unbeatable when he was playing. And the team rallied around him. With Foles, this game is a toss-up. I’ll get specific here as the Vikings continue their “conquering demons” tour. Minnesota will be up by seven in the waning minutes. Foles will lead a drive deep into Vikings territory. On, let’s say, fourth-and-four from the six, Foles will drop back and pass to Jay Ajayi running parallel to the end zone. At the last second, Xavier Rhodes, who will be covering Alshon Jeffery, will break on the route, hitting Ajayi at the same time the ball arrives, knocking it to the turf and preserving the game for Minnesota. Vikings 17, Eagles 10.
It’s the last week of multi-game NFL weekends for six-plus months, so fantasy football fans need to enjoy it, savor it, and drink it all in so it can tide you over through the offseason. I’d say the “enjoying” part would be tricky from a fantasy perspective given the defensive pedigrees of the remaining teams, but if the Jags and Steelers can both go over the Vegas total in the same game and the Vikings can exorcise 50 years of demons in 14 glorious seconds… hey, then just about anything can happen. Here’s a rundown of this week’s fantasy options as you tweak your playoff fantasy rosters and set your DFS lineups for the Conference Championships.
Photo by Keith Allison
QUARTERBACKS
Choose your narrative: Tom Brady and three bums, the 2015 Rams quarterback depth chart meeting in the NFC title game… they’re all there. Blake Bortles has the best matchup on paper, but in a battle of wits between Bortles and Bill Belichick I know where I’m pushing my chips. Brady has seen (and conquered) elite defenses before, so he’s the obvious call. And in the “Fisher Bowl”, where 7 meets 9, final numbers might depend more on each team’s respective ground games and pass protection.
1. Tom Brady, NE
2. Case Keenum, MIN
3. Blake Bortles, JAC
4. Nick Foles, PHI
RUNNING BACKS
The Patriots’ array of pass-catching running backs will be heavily employed this week against Jacksonville’s stout pass defense, but touches will depend heavily on Rex Burkhead’s availability. The Jags’ preference will be to run Leonard Fournette heavily, but the combination of Belichick schemes, game script and his health status make him a bit of a risky play. The Vikings only split their touches two ways against a strong Philly D, while the Eagles trisect (or worse) their backfield. It’ll be a week for playing hunches based on how you think the games will flow.
1. Dion Lewis, NE
2. Leonard Fournette, JAC
3. Jerick McKinnon, MIN
4. James White, NE
5. Jay Ajayi, PHI
6. Latavius Murray, MIN
7. T.J. Yeldon, JAC
8. LeGarrette Blount, PHI
9. Chris Ivory, JAC
10. Corey Clement, PHI
11. Kenjon Barner, PHI
12. Rex Burkhead, NE
WIDE RECEIVERS
It’s tough to see Brandin Cooks having much success against the Jags’ elite cornerbacks, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Danny Amendola working inside and underneath racked up another double-digit catch outing. Even if Minnesota’s offensive line doesn’t give Case Keenum a ton of time, both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are capable of turning short throws into big plays. Flip the script and Alshon Jeffery will have his hands full with Xavier Rhodes, but Nelson Agholor’s speed could prove problematic for Trae Waynes. I don’t anticipate Jacksonville asking Blake Bortles to win this one through the air, and even if catch-up necessitates throwing there’s hardly a reliable standout among the Jaguars’ receiving corps.
1. Adam Thielen, MIN
2. Stefon Diggs, MIN
3. Danny Amendola, NE
4. Marqise Lee, JAC
5. Brandin Cooks, NE
6. Alshon Jeffery, PHI
7. Chris Hogan, NE
8. Nelson Agholor, PHI
9. Keelan Cole, JAC
10. Jarius Wright, MIN
11. Allen Hurns, JAC
12. Torrey Smith, PHI
13. Dede Westbrook, JAC
14. Mack Hollins, PHI
15. Michael Floyd, MIN
16. Matthew Slater, NE
TIGHT ENDS
Last week Gronk scored 14.1 fantasy points (20.1 if you’re in full PPR mode); if you combine all of the remaining tight ends still alive in the playoffs, they totaled 10.6 points (21.2 PPR). Do with that information what you will.
1. Rob Gronkowski, NE
2. Zach Ertz, PHI
3. Kyle Rudolph, MIN
4. Trey Burton, PHI
5. Ben Koyack, JAC
6. Brent Celek, PHI
7. Jacob Hollister, NE
8. James O’Shaughnessy, JAC
9. Marcedes Lewis, JAC
10. David Morgan, MIN
11. Duane Allen, NE
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
This doesn’t feel like a place to look for fantasy points. In the NFC you have to expect conservative game plans for the “backup” quarterbacks against their respective elite defenses. In the AFC, the Patriots field the least productive fantasy defense but they face Blake Bortles; conversely, Jacksonville throws its defense up against Tom Brady.
1. Patriots DST, NE
2. Vikings DST, MIN
3. Eagles DST, PHI
4. Jaguars DST, JAC
PLACEKICKERS
It’s relatively easy to place Gotkowski and Lambo; you don’t beat Tom Brady kicking field goals. With the NFC kickers it may boil down to which offense is more efficient in the red zone… and which kicker is more comfortable kicking outdoors.
1. Stephen Gostkowski, NE
2. Jake Elliott, PHI
3. Kai Forbath, MIN
4. Josh Lambo, JAC
I shoveled the driveway tonight when I got home from watching the Vikings game. I could not stop giggling the entire time.
Friends and family who know me will attest to this: The older I get, the more I hate dealing with the cold and snow of winter. But tonight it was a little less cold and a lot less laborious – though it did take a bit longer than it otherwise might have because I spent a fair amount of time answering text messages from friends and family.
I heard from a couple of my favorite Packers fans, a favorite Bears fan and many, many fellow Vikings fans who were, frankly, in disbelief at the ending. It would have been hard enough to believe if it had been a game in which I had no true rooting interest. It would have been much easier to believe had it been the Saints snatching defeat from the jaws of victory over Minnesota – I’ve been through that one a few times in my lifetime.
But nope, tonight I finally got to experience the thrill of a late-game, shocking playoff win. And it was all the sweeter coming against a Saints team that knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs nine years ago. (more…)
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots – Saturday, January 13th, 2018 – 7:15PM kickoff
Tony: On the AFC side of the equation, it’s two games that most people think are forgone conclusions. On Saturday evening, possibly the biggest laugher of the weekend will happen, when the Patriots take on the Titans, who came back to upset the Chiefs. The only way the Titans have a chance in this one is if the discord in New England isn’t only real, it’s worse than anyone imagined. That, or a freak injury to Tom Brady that even TB12 can’t overcome.
Andy: Yeah, put me on the same side of the people who say this won’t be much of a game. It’s basically a tuneup for the Patriots. They’re getting better. But they’re a ways off. Brady is the main reason. A little stat, courtesy of NFL Communications: This game pits the biggest age difference between starting QBs in playoff history, beating out the 1991 match-up between Kansas City’s Steve DeBerg and the Raiders’ Todd Marinovich. There are 16 years and a few months between Brady and Marcus Mariota. In the previous four highest age-difference games, the elder has beaten the youth each time. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
Tony: First off, Todd Marinovich played in a playoff game? Secondly…I’m guessing that may have made its way to his pipe. And lastly…have I mentioned lately that the Patriots really need to bring the old Pat Patriot helmets & red jerseys back from mothballs?
Anyway…I suspect the only way the game stays at all interesting is if the Pats come out cold from the week off, and the Titans manage to put together a ground game to hold on to the ball. For at least 43 minutes of game time. I say Patriots 34, Titans 13.
Andy: I think you’re giving Tennessee too much credit. I don’t think it will be that close. The Titans started last week looking like they were more than happy to call it a season and say “we made the playoffs, isn’t this a great building point.” The only reason they stayed in that game was abysmal coaching by Kansas City, which, stunningly, forgot to involve Kareem Hunt in the game. That won’t happen with Bill Belichick. If running the ball is what it takes, he’ll do it. And he may take this as an opportunity to show the national media how unified his troops are (even though I do think there is a solid chance he retires at season’s end). This has a chance to be one of the most lopsided playoff games in history. Patriots 47, Titans 9.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers – Sunday, January 14th, 2018 – 12:05PM kickoff
Andy: The other AFC game is also seen by many as a mismatch. I’m not so sure. Since Ryan Shazier got hurt, Pittsburgh has been vulnerable to the run. And the Jaguars do have Leonard Fournette, who repeatedly gashed the Steelers earlier this season. I’m not suggesting Jacksonville wins in a blowout — far from it. I suspect the game plan will call for ball control and minimizing Blake Bortles rather than for scoring 50. But I do think the Jags make a contest out of this game.
Tony: The Jags also have that swarming defense, which could make life miserable for the Killer B’s–Ben, Bell and Brown. With Antonio Brown coming back from a serious calf injury (and battling some sort of illness at practice on Friday), the last thing they need is to face a secondary combination that ranks among the best in the league. Throw in an offensive line that didn’t grade out well as a unit (at least on ProFootballFocus.com), and maybe the Jaguars do have a fighting chance.
Tony: Of course, the Steelers do have the advantage of home field–not to mention plenty of recent playoff experience to fall back on, versus the Jaguars and their one ugly game against the Bills last week. And something tells me that the Steelers would like some payback from that embarrasing 30-9 beat down the Jaguars laid down in Pittsburgh in Week 5.
Andy: At a minimum, the Steelers won’t take the Jaguars lightly after that big week five loss. I do think Pittsburgh wins. They have playoff experience and that does mean something. But this game will be tighter than expected. I’ll go Steelers 20, Jaguars 16.
Tony: The weather in Pittsburgh is supposed to be plenty cold as well–not ideal conditions for Jacksonville. I expect it will be closer in score than it may actually feel, with Blake Bortles possibly adding some of his patented garbage time points. Pittsburgh 23, Jaguars 17.
Between our AFC Wildcard and NFC Wildcard predictions last week, Andy and I both managed to split the games 2-2–although his stabs in the dark for scores were slightly better than mine.
We’re back again this week to preview the Divisional match ups, starting with the NFC:
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles – Saturday, January 13th, 2018 – 3:35PM kickoff
Andy: About six weeks ago I would not have expected this game to happen. The Eagles were rolling everyone and the Falcons were sleepwalking through the first two-thirds of the season. But then Carson Wentz got hurt and Atlanta went 5-2 to finish the season, with both losses coming to the teams playing in the NFC’s Sunday game. I have some nagging doubts that I’m being rope-a-doped into my prediction for this one — that all of a sudden the Nick Foles of 2013 with the 27-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio is going to show up and take Phillly on a run. But that’s too much of a story book story line to really come true. Isn’t it?
Tony: The bigger of the surprises to me six weeks ago may have been that the Falcons were in the playoffs at all–this is a team that has seemingly struggled all year to play good football, much less consistent football–yet they pretty much whipped the Rams last weekend. And did so with the offense still not really firing on all cylinders–Devonta Freeman only had 66 yards and a touchdown, and Julio Jones 94 yards and a touchdown. If you’d told me those stats pregame, I would have pegged it as a field goal type game, not a Falcons double up.
Andy: I think we’re both saying the same thing, at least about the Falcons. This team appeared to be on auto-pilot most of the season. On the Philadelphia side, you almost have to feel sorry for their fans … almost … well, okay, not quite. Not really at all. But they were getting excited about a team that appeared dominant when Carson Wentz was healthy, only to see Foles come and, basically, sleepwalk through the last few games. I do think Atlanta roles in this one. That’s for all the reasons we’ve already mentioned and, also, because “Nature Boy” Ric Flair says the Eagles are going to lose.
Tony: Well, if Nature Boy says it, it must be true. I’m not as convinced as many that that the Falcons will walk all over the Eagles, just because Carson Wentz isn’t there. The Falcons are an indoor team, from the south–they haven’t had a late season, outdoors, colder weather game since 2014 (a Monday night loss in Green Bay in early December, 33 degrees at game time), and hasn’t won in those conditions since an overtime win in Seattle in 2010 (a game that was actually 45 degrees). Weather for Saturday? The temps are supposed to drop again, after a warm up this week, which could make for interesting playing conditions.
Andy: I don’t think it’s going to be an easy win for the Falcons. The Eagles defense is pretty solid. And Atlanta still isn’t playing anywhere near as fluidly on offense as they did last season under the watchful eye of Kyle Shanahan. My problem with Philadelphia is that since Wentz went down, the offense has been just plain bad. The Falcons’ up-and-coming defense will see to making sure that continues. Atlanta 20 Philadelphia 10.
Tony: Whoever wins, I don’t think it will be a double digit margin of victory. Two solid defenses, less than ideal weather conditions, and two offenses that have not been in stride. I’ll go out seemingly on a limb and call it Philadelphia 20, Atlanta 17. With the weather, I’ll give the Eagles ability to grind it out on the ground the key to the victory.
Andy: In the immortal words of our president, “Wrong. Wrong.”
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings – Sunday, January 14th, 2018 – 3:40PM kickoff
Tony: In the other NFC game, the Minnesota Vikings seek revenge for the 2009 NFC Championship Game, aka Bountygate. Speaking of which, I heard a funny thing last week during the Saints victory over the Panthers–apparently Drew Brees was hit a little late on a play, and the crowd sounded none to pleased. How ironic.
This time around, the Vikings host the Saints, and instead of featuring a geriatric Quarterback they lulled out his 4th retirement, they feature a record setting defense that is ranked top in the league for yardage allowed and points allowed–which may make for a long afternoon for Drew Brees.
Andy: I liked a post I read this week about how Vikings fans are sort of walking around like abused puppies this week, hoping for the win but protecting themselves from another brutal loss. The nice thing for them heading into a game against New Orleans this time, besides home field, is they are the ones with the top-notch defense. The Saints have improved immensely throughout the season, but Minnesota’s among the league’s elite. And Mike Zimmer has put the kibosh on some of the league’s best QBs the last two seasons. Drew Brees won’t see much he hasn’t seen before, but he’s still going to face a brutal pass rush, a shutdown corner and some of the best schemes around. The question becomes can Case Keenum keep it up? Can he put up the offense necessary to complement the Vikings’ best defense since the mid-1970s. I cautiously think he can.
Tony: So you’re asking if Case Keenum and his big balls can keep it up? I’m not sure if it’s that I’m hanging out in new places online this year, or what, but I’ve actually felt an electricity around the Vikings that I don’t remember from 2009 or 1998–maybe I’m just paying more attention to it, but I’ve heard more people in the last two weeks seemingly talk about it being the Vikings destiny to make the Super Bowl that you wonder if they realize the team has a couple of tough games to win first. As you mentioned, the defense isn’t really the question, for the Vikings–it’s the offense. Not just Keenum, either–will the line hold up, is Kyle Rudolph finally healthy again, and can Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen get back to making the big plays, which seemed to disappear the last few weeks of the season. On the positive side, while the Saints defense improved this year, they are a bit beat up.
Andy: Yeah, one of the things that concerns me about the Vikings is they haven’t really been tested in a difficult game since they lost to Carolina. The last three games were pretty much against teams who had shut down. The Saints were in playoff mode right up until the last game. That could either help New Orleans stay sharp or they could suffer from a bit of a burnout effect. I think anyone who is talking about the Vikings as a team of destiny is begging to be let down … or they weren’t alive for 75, 87, 98, 09, etc. That said, I do think Minnesota does just enough to squeek by in the most interesting game of the best weekend of the season. In spite of Kai Forbath, Vikings 20, Saints 17.
Tony: Yeah, I’m by no means thinking destiny. In fact, in true Viking fan form, I’ll pick the Saints–you just brought up possibly the biggest achilles heal on the Vikings team, Kai Forbath. Saints 21, Vikings 20. I heard Blair Walsh might be looking for a job this spring…
Many football-watchers consider the Divisional playoff round to be the best weekend of the entire NFL season. Tough to argue, especially when you’re pitting the four best teams in the league against the four hottest teams, the ones who clicked at the right time and survived the Wild Card round. Know what makes the weekend even better? Winning your fantasy football league, and/or taking home a little extra coin with a successful DFS lineup.
With that in mind, here are a few intriguing value plays you can sprinkle into your DFS lineup to help make room for the high-priced big guns.
Case Keenum, QB, MIN vs. Saints
The narrative on this one is the Vikings will grind out a win on the ground at home, riding their elite defense into the conference championship. But don’t be fooled by Keenum’s “just enough” numbers as Minnesota wrapped up the season. Keenum tossed multiple touchdowns in each of his three regular-season matchups with the NFC South—and he wasn’t even under center when Sam Bradford took the Saints for 346 and three in the season opener. The Vikings may grind, but with weapons like Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph at his disposal Keenum will have every opportunity to put up helpful numbers. Still, only Draft Kings prices Keenum in the top half of Divisional round quarterbacks, meaning he’ll deliver those numbers at a discount of between $900 and $2900.
Leonard Fournette, RB, JAC @ Steelers
In the Steelers’ six games prior to Ryan Shazier’s injury no team rushed for more than 70 yards, backs averaged 3.3 yards per carry, and Pittsburgh surrendered only one RB rushing score. In the three games immediately after Shazier went down the Steelers served up 100-yard games to Alex Collins and Alfred Blue and allowed five running back rushing scores and 5.7 yards per carry. Fournette gouged the Steelers—with a healthy Shazier—for 28-181-2 earlier in the season; what do you think the Jaguars’ game plan will be in the rematch? There’s an easy 20-plus touches waiting for Fournette, against a defense that has struggled to stop the run in Shazier’s absence—more than enough to make Fournette’s price tag, fourth- or fifth-highest running back of the weekend depending on your DFS venue of choice, not just palatable but downright lineup-friendly.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, MIN vs. Saints
McKinnon and Latavius Murray have tag-teamed to replace dynamic rookie Dalvin Cook, who roasted the Saints for 137 yards from scrimmage in the season opener. And while Murray isn’t a bad value himself, with price tags ranging from $100 less to $500 more than McKinnon, the back affectionately known as “Jet” has a distinct leg up in any format awarding points for receptions. Since Cook went down in Week 4 McKinnon has seen five or more targets in six games, averaging 5.6 receptions and 51.1 yards while scoring twice in those half-dozen contests. Pass-catching backs hit the Saints in a soft spot; they’ve allowed six or more targets to running backs in four straight and six of the last seven games—including Christian McCaffrey’s 6-101-1 in the Wild Card round. The Saints have also surrendered a running back receiving touchdown in three of the last four games. Peg Murray as the goal-line guy and the Thielen/Diggs combo as the focal point of the passing game… but know that McKinnon has ample opportunity to return serious value.
Derrick Henry, RB, TEN @ Patriots
It’s worth mentioning that while Henry is the third-highest priced back on both DraftKings and Fantasy Draft, his $6700 price tag on FanDuel makes him just the ninth-most expensive runner for the weekend. With DeMarco Murray already ruled out, all of Tennessee’s backfield touches will funnel through Henry. Game script may dictate the Titans play catch-up, but at that price Henry is worth the risk—especially when you consider he has more receiving yards (101) in the past two weeks than in the previous 16 combined.
Danny Amendola, WR, NE vs. Titans
With only a one-catch cameo appearance in the past two-plus months it’s almost impossible to trust Chris Hogan with a lineup spot despite a price tag lower than between eight and 12 other wideouts. But you know Tom Brady is going to get his, and Rob Gronkowski can’t handle the entire receiving workload. With Adoree Jackson on Brandin Cooks, where will Tom turn? For a price somewhere between 17th (FanDuel) and 21st (DraftKings) among wideouts, roll the bones on Amendola. His production has been consistent with or without Hogan in the lineup; you know he’ll get you a handful of catches, and at those rock-bottom prices if he finds the end zone it’s all gravy.
Corey Davis, WR, TEN @ Patriots
If, as noted above, game script in the Titans-Patriots tilt forces Marcus Mariota to the air then grabbing Tennessee’s top target makes sense. In the Wild Card round that target was Davis, who splashed with 10 targets way back in Week 1 but was knocked off track by an injury and only lately has worked his way back to the top of the Titans’ receiver rotation. Davis posted a career-best 6-91 in the Week 16 loss to the Rams and paced Tennessee with seven targets (producing 4-35) in Kansas City last week. He’s still looking for his first pro touchdown, but with a price tag that lands him between the 18th and 21st receiver he’s a high-volume opportunity play as you build up your lineup elsewhere.
On FanDuel, however, teammate Eric Decker might actually be the better play. The veteran pass-catcher is $600 cheaper than Davis on that venue and considering he’s out-targeted the rookie 21-18 over the past three weeks and found the end zone last week against Kansas City he might be the more palatable play in that format.
Mohamed Sanu, WR, ATL @ Eagles
This feels like a good week to pay up at the receiver position—the value-priced suggestions above excepted, of course. But Sanu’s lineup-friendly $5800 price tag on FanDuel, 14th among wideouts, puts him squarely in play on that venue. Atlanta’s WR2 has five or more targets in seven straight games, including 19 over the Falcons’ last two must-win weeks; he also topped 70 yards in each of those two tilts. Sanu does most of his work out of the slot, which also bodes well as fellow slot receivers Doug Baldwin (5-84), Cooper Kupp (5-118-1) and Sterling Shepard (11-139-1) put up quality numbers in a similar spot. Sanu’s price tag gets a little less palatable at other venues, but if FanDuel is your site of choice he’s extremely tempting.
Zach Ertz, TE, PHI vs. Falcons
The price-setters are determined to make you pay up for Gronk; he’ll cost you $1300 to $2900 more than any other tight end. The bargain-basement alternative of paying half his price tag for an ancillary part of an offense like Austin Hooper, Jesse James or Marcedes Lewis, is far from appealing. Working the in between are Ertz, Delanie Walker and Kyle Rudolph, all within $1300 of each other on DraftKings and FanDuel; at an $1800 discount from Ertz and Walker, Rudy may be the better value on Fantasy Draft. But let’s stick with Ertz, who saw 23 targets from Nick Foles in his two full games after the Carson Wentz injury. Those targets marked Ertz’s busiest two-game stretch of the season and yielded 15-137-1. The Falcons haven’t allowed a 60-yard tight end since Charles Clay in Week 4, but they also haven’t seen much in the way of talent or volume; when those two factors combine, you get something like Jimmy Graham’s 7-59-1 on 11 targets. Given Ertz’s role as Foles’ favored target he’s a solid investment at a reasonable rate.
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