Bet the Mortgage: Week 7, 2016

by Tony & Andy | Oct 20, 2016 | 2016 Season, NFL Gambling

Tony continues a two-season long run of bad luck. Gotta say, it’s getting kind of ridiculous. Every week it looks like he’s made some well-reasoned choices. Then every week he comes back 1-3 or 0-4.

He’s got a couple hundred bucks left in the bankroll and he’s found another mythical someone to loan him some cash beyond what we’ve started with. Maybe he can now get on a roll.

Andy’s plugging along at 2-2 most weeks now, but the last couple weeks he’s hit his big bets. So he’s staying slightly ahead of the pace.

Here are the standings:

Andy
Last week: 2-2
Last week cash: $1,831
Overall: 11-12-1
Overall cash: Up $2,357
Total bankroll remaining: $12,357

Tony
Last week: 1-3
Last week cash: -$548
Overall: 6-18
Overall cash: Down $9,500
Total bankroll remaining: $500

Andy: Well, 2-2 isn’t sexy, but as long as the big ones keep hitting, what the hell. Been winning with the Patriots. Can’t see that stopping against Landry Jones. Not sure what makes sense after that.

$3,000 – New England (-7.5, even) at Pittsburgh – This game had a lot of intrigue until Ben Roethlisberger went and got hurt. The Steelers lack a backup QB who can make a game against Angry Brady interesting. Pittsburgh looked like a Super Bowl contender up until last week against Miami. Can the defense come up with a gutty enough performance to make this interesting? I doubt it. I’m confident enough to give the extra half point in exchange for an even return vs a -120 one.

$750 – Buffalo (-3, even) at Miami – The Dolphins cleaned the Steelers’ clocks last week, but I’m betting it’s a fluke. The Bills are on a roll. This is another game where I’m willing to give an extra half point to get an even return.

$750 – Atlanta (-6.5, -110) vs San Diego – I can’t help thinking the Falcons’ bubble will burst sooner or later. But I also can’t see it happening this week. The Chargers looked good against Denver last week and there is some talent on the team. But the coach is a choke-artist – he tried his best to give his team a chance to lose last week against the Broncos despite thoroughly dominating the game. And Atlanta, with its skill talent on offense, current all-world QB Matt Ryan and home-field advantage, is too good to let what happened to Denver happen to them.

$400 – Chicago (+300 money line) at Green Bay – Brian Hoyer has three consecutive 300-yard-passing games, six TD passes and no picks this season. The Packers are missing three cornerbacks, are starting a WR at RB and have not received Aaron Rodgers-like play in a year. Do I think the Bears win this game? No. Am I willing to throw down a couple hundred bucks on a big money line on the off chance they might? Can I get to Vegas by kickoff?

Tony: Another week, another 1-3 record—meaning if you just do everything opposite of me, at this point, you’ve probably built up a hell of a bankroll by now. Meanwhile, I’m back to borrowing some money from a fictional mob boss to try to chase myself back to even somehow…

$1,000 – New England (-8, +115) vs Pittsburgh – I voted on a twitter poll this morning asking whether I’d rather see Zach Mettenberger or Landry Jones start for the Steelers this week with Big Ben out. The Steelers defense isn’t good enough to overcome either one against most teams, much less Angry Brady and the Patriots. I’d be lining -8 on the first half…which means you can safely chalk up a Patriots choke job and 350 yards from whichever quarterback the Steelers trot out.

$1,000 – San Diego (+6.5, -105) vs. Atlanta – I think Atlanta wins the game, but the Chargers have been masters of keeping games close blowing leads late, so no reason to suspect that Atlanta wins this by a full touchdown. Other than the fact that I am betting against it.

$1,000 – New Orleans @ Kansas City: Under 50 (-110) – The Chiefs have a grind it out mentality, especially with Jamaal Charles back and Spencer Ware running strong. And Drew Brees & the Saints aren’t nearly the team on the road that they are at home—yes, they’ve scored at least 32 points in all but one game, but their two games on the road were against the New York Giants (13 points) and San Diego (35 points, but it’s San Diego). This one reeks of 23-17…by which I mean plan for a 38-35 game with little to no defense at all.

$500 – Chicago (money line, +330) over Green Bay – Yes, in Lambeau. Have you seen the meme going around where it shows the surprising quarterback that has better stats over the last calendar year than Aaron Rodgers? No, not the Brian Hoyer one…although that might be more relevant this week. I’m talking about the Johnny Manziel one. Leave it up to ESPN to figure out a way to put Manziel back in the news (I’m just assuming it was them, because who else would?) … surprised they’re not talking about the fact that in the last 6 weeks, Rodgers has hit fewer home runs than Tim Tebow. Actually, they probably have.