Bet the Mortgage: Week 13, 2015 – Best Bets

by Tony & Andy | Dec 3, 2015 | 2015 season, NFL Gambling

Well, it wasn’t as good as the last couple weeks, but week 12 wasn’t a total loss. … it’s sad that we’ve fallen to describing losing weeks in this manner, but … between the two of us, we have less than one of our original hypothetical bankrolls remaining.

Both Andy and Tony went 2-2. Andy lost less than $50. Tony lost a bit more. With just five weeks left, do either of them have a chance to get back into the black?

Here’s where they stand:

And here we go with week 13… should be another wild ride.

Andy:

Well, my short stretch of winning weeks has ended, but I kept the amount to a minimum this time. I’m still, actually, within striking distance of having a good season. I’m betting heavily on road teams this week, which makes me a bit nervous. But … it’s pretend money. I’ll slowly start ramping up a bit this week. There are only five weeks left. Go big or go home with your hypothetical bankroll, no?

$1,500 – Houston (+3, even) at Buffalo – You just never know what you are going to get from the Bills in any given week. Meanwhile, the Texans have figured something out. The defense has allowed just 35 points in the last four games, with a road win at Cincinnati part of a four game win streak. I think the Texans have a shot to finish 4-1 and make the playoffs, but that has to start here. I think it will – they win the game outright.

$1,500 – Seattle (pick ‘em, -110) at Minnesota – The Vikings are 8-3, but the list of wins so far is not terribly impressive. I think we’re going to find out over the next few weeks that this team is improving but still maybe a year away from being a real contender. Meanwhile, Seattle has pretty much proven it’s not going to be the team it has been the last couple years. But they’re coming off a big win against Pittsburgh and they are desperate for a win if they want to stay in the playoff race. I think they win this game comfortably.

$1,000 – Jacksonville (+2.5, even) at Tennessee – The Jags had won three of four before a disappointing home loss last week to San Diego. I’m starting to believe Jacksonville is at least closing in on being a decent team. Tennessee feels a bit further away in their turnaround efforts. Go Jags.

$300 – San Francisco (+270 money line) at Chicago – Ok, the Bears have been more competitive than expected. And the 49ers are playing with Blaine Gabbert. I find it hard to believe Chicago is favored by seven points over anyone right now. They’re still bad. Do I think San Francisco wins? Hmm. Maybe not. But at +270 I’ll play my hunch that the Bears are getting more credit than they deserve.

Tony

Despite being 5-3 in the last two weeks, I’m sitting here at under $3k remaining for the season—it’s tempting to push more than all in, starting betting $10k a week in an effort to get not just back to even, but up to the original goal of doubling our season starting point of $10k. Because I’m sure that would work just as well as it does on the blackjack table…

$1,000 – Jacksonville (+2.5, Even) at Tennessee – Getting only two and a half points on the road indicates that many think the Jags are the better team. I agree, to the point that I’m not sure I even need the points—but I’ve got better options for the money line.

$800 – Baltimore (+4, -110) at Miami – At the end of the day, even as bad as their record has been, the Ravens have had a lot of close games. And after a couple week surge after the Joe Philbin firing, the Dolphins may be packing it in — and somehow I don’t know that Ndomiwhatever Suh’s “inspirational” speech about how he’ll be there in four or five years and many of his teammates won’t … yeah, I wonder how much they regret that contract.

$1,500 – Carolina at New Orleans: Over 49.5 (-110) – Yes, the Saints were held without a touchdown last week, and have only 20 points in their last two games. Those were both on the road, though—they haven’t scored fewer than 26 points at home, other than Week 2. Assuming they can get to at least 21 points, very good candidate for the over.

$500 – San Diego (+170 money line) vs. Denver – The hype around Brock Osweiler continues to swell … and I’m just not sure that I believe it 100 percent. Yes, the Chargers have not been good at all, but Philip Rivers still has some gas in the tank. For +170, I’ll take a chance.

Bet the Mortgage: Week 12, 2015 – Best Bets

by Tony & Andy | Nov 25, 2015 | 2015 season, NFL Gambling

Hey, what do you know. We occasionally can dumb luck ourselves into a decent week.

It was particularly good for Andy, who hit his big bet and his upset – go Broncos and Colts. He cut his deficit by nearly 60 percent and, somehow, put himself in striking distance of breaking even.

Tony also hit three of four, though his shrinking bankroll and, perhaps, his fear of having to visit his imaginary “guy” to borrow some cash left his bets on the lower side.

Here are the standings:

Now we’ve got to find out – have we actually figured something out or was this a case of two blind dumbasses who finally stumbled onto a nut. Here are our Thanksgiving bets:

Andy

If I start to feel pretty good about myself after last week, I can easily humble myself with the realization that the one I got wrong was a long-winded, buffoonery pick in favor of Washington covering the spread against Carolina. So – do I think I have all the answers now? Absolutely not. There aren’t any I like as much as I liked last week’s, but there are a couple decent lines this week.

$1,000 – Carolina (+1.5, -105) at Dallas – So … Tony Romo is back. Great. The Cowboys are better with him, clearly, but still not great. They squeaked by a foundering Miami squad last week. But the Panthers are 10-0. A stunning 10-0, but nonetheless, they are 10-0. And Dallas … is not. The Panthers’ defense is for real. They will frustrate Dallas on offense. They might not score much – actually, you might be just as well off playing the under – but I think Carolina wins straight up. Give me a 10-0 team as an underdog and I’ll play that squad until they’re no longer undefeated.

$1,000 – Minnesota (Pick ‘em, Even) at Atlanta – I don’t like betting on the Vikings. They’re my home team and I admit, it’s not always easy to stay unbiased. But this line makes no sense to me. Since starting 5-0, Atlanta has lost four of five, including games to Tampa Bay, New Orleans and San Francisco. The one win was a narrow one, 10-7 over Tennessee. Those are some dogs. Minnesota responded to its first ass whooping of the season on opening night against San Francisco by winning seven of eight. Coach Mike Zimmer has emphasized this week the need to not the loss to Green Bay multiply into two or three losses. I think the Vikings come in focused and beat an Atlanta team that is better coached than it has been in a few years but still short on the talent to go along with the improved sideline presence.

$1,500 – Arizona (-11.5, +115) at San Francisco – The 8-2 Cardinals are on a roll. They’ve won four straight and have scored 34, 39 and 34 points in the last three games – two of which have come against Seattle and Cincinnati, two solid opponents. They made a mockery of San Francisco the first time around and they are actually clicking now. San Francisco has only made it to 20 or more points three times all season. I could take the Cardinals at a couple different numbers, ranging from 10 to 11.5. My sense is this is a two touchdown game at a minimum, probably more. So I’ll risk the higher line for the bigger payoff.

$500 – Tampa Bay (+160 money line) at Indianapolis – The Colts have been playing better, but they still don’t look anything like the team that went to the AFC Championship game last year. The Bucs seem to be figuring some things out. Jameis Winston is coming off a five TD performance and Doug Martin re-emerged last week in a blowout win. They actually might be becoming kind of fun to watch. Plus they’ve been stopping the run well. I think if Matt Hasselbeck has to throw the ball a ton for Indy to win, the Colts are in trouble.

Tony

I finally go 3-1 for a week, and have less than $1,000 more to show for it—apparently I let Guido intimidate me into betting less than I normally would have…doesn’t sound like me, but I guess it’s the first time I’ve had to deal with Guido.  This week, back to normal…

$1,500 – Jacksonville (-4, -110) over San Diego – I don’t know what’s the most troubling here…that I’m betting on the Jags, that I’m betting this much on the Jags, or that I’m betting on them as a favorite. Here goes nothing…

$1,000 – Tampa Bay (+3, +110) at Indianapolis – Not totally sure why, but I’ve got a feeling that Tampa actually wins this one outright…which means I should probably take the money line, but I figure I’d like a little bit of breathing room.

$1,000 – Minnesota at Atlanta: Under 46 (-110) – I hate taking unders. I hate betting on games involving my team. But Atlanta’s strength (offense) isn’t playing all that well, and is facing Minnesota’s strength. While the Vikings oft-anemic offense is facing a Falcons defense that is improved, despite Ra’Shede Hageman. Recipe for a 17-13 game. Of course, it was another Vikings game that was clearly not going to go over that was the result of my do the opposite for sports betting…

$500 – Denver (+150 money line) over New England – There are a couple of games that I like as upsets that have slightly higher payouts (Tampa Bay, +155; Miami, +165), but I kind of want to be able to say I won on the Patriots losing their first game of the year. And if now…well, no one actually reads these, right?