Andy: I know in most seasons there is a fair amount of turnover in playoff teams, but I just don’t see a lot of that happening this year. A lot of the really strong teams almost seemed to get stronger and I think there are even going to be some potential rematches to be had in 2014.
Tony: I so want to disagree with you, if for no other reason than it makes for more interesting writing. But, while typically between five to seven teams change over, I can’t see that happening this year, as I actually ended up with six of eight division winners from last year repeating. (more…)
Tony: For the first time in … as long as the Browns have been back in the NFL, the AFC North might be the strongest division in the AFC from top to bottom.
Looking at the Raiders, Jaguars, Texans and Jets, that might not be saying much, but more so than in the other divisions, an argument could be made that ANY team could end up winning the North.
The Bengals are coming off of an 11-5 season and division championship. Much like brother Jim and the 49ers, John Harbaugh & Co. don’t rebuild the Ravens, they simply reload, and could easily improve on their 8-8 record (the worst the team has had since 2007). The Steelers showed their age early in the season, but came on strong at the end of the season, going 8-4 after the bye, 6-2 after a drubbing at the hands of the Patriots, and winning their last three.
And then there are the lowly Browns, who started the offseason on an incredibly weak note, firing a head coach with no apparent plan in mind to replace him (or at least no backup plan when the Jim Harbaugh experiment failed), but parlayed their draft into becoming possibly the most talked about team in the league with a player that could spark an immediate turn around. Of course, he could just as easily doom the franchise to another 5 years of less than mediocrity…
Andy: I think you broke federal law not mentioning Johnny Blackjack, err Johnny Nightclub, err Johnny SixPack, err Johnny Football in your first paragraph. That said, I agree with the sentiment – this division will be competitive, though that is equally due to all four teams being flawed as it is to their being good. (more…)
Andy: This division produced three playoff teams last year, but only one really mattered. My sense is that Peyton Manning could fall off in his play by 10 to 15 percent in key metrics from 2013 and still be a contender for league MVP.
The Broncos remain the class of this division and it might be by a bigger spread than last year.
Tony: The Chiefs were the shock of the first half of the season, starting 9-0, but their true colors (and Alex Smith) showed through, finishing 2-5 the rest of the way. But Jamaal Charles could put any team in contention for a playoff spot, especially with a defense that tied for the fourth fewest points allowed in the NFL.
In their first season away from the clutches of Norv Turner, the Chargers also surprised many by making it back to the playoffs, although that may have had more to do with the lack of talent in the rest of the AFC more so than being a top talent. Still, to make the playoffs AND win on wild card weekend has to give fans in Southern California more reason for hope than they had under Norv. (more…)
Andy: I don’t think Houston is as bad a team as the 2-14 record would indicate last season. Jacksonville is improving. And Tennessee has not been terrible the last couple years. But it’s pretty obvious in my eyes that unless Andrew Luck takes a dramatic step back in 2014 that the AFC South is going to go through Indianapolis again.
Tony: The Jaguars actually have been more impressive in preseason than I expected—not that winning one of the first two preseason games means much, but they might have already surpassed their 2014 win total I would have projected them at. Still, despite taking the highest QB in the draft, the Jags appear to be the team most convinced to take the right approach with rookie quarterbacks, seemingly content to use Chad Henne for the season regardless.
Expectations have risen for rookie quarterbacks with the success that teams have had with rookie quarterbacks like Luck, RG3, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton—but they are still the exception, not the rule, in my opinion. For every one of them, there is a Geno Smith, Christian Ponder, Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden, who have not panned out to the level expected/hoped. Not to mention that none of the aforementioned QBs have led their team to the Super Bowl. (more…)
Tony: The AFC East has been as anti-climactic as Major League Baseball’s National League East was in the 90s and early 2000s, with the New England Patriots playing the role of the Atlanta Braves, winning the division approximately the last 127 years (ok, technically it’s only 11 of the last 13 seasons). Much like the Braves, they have little to show for it in the last decade as well—the Patriots have been to three of the last seven Super Bowls, but they haven’t won since the 2004 season.
There’s little reason to believe that this year will be any different—much like the last few, not because the Patriots are that much better than they were a year ago, but because their division rivals continue to just mire themselves in a sea of muck that prevents them from taking the next step.
The Dolphins seem most likely to put up some sort of challenge to the Patriots, but they’re being led by a quarterback that no one seems to really believe is finally the heir to the Dan Marino throne. They thought they solved their running game woes of 2013, but appear to have learned what the Denver Broncos learned before them, that when you put faith in Knowshon Moreno, he will disappoint—it’s only when your expectations have lowered to basically zero that he will succeed.
At least the Dolphins don’t have the 49ers on the schedule, so we can hopefully avoid hearing much about the whole Jonathan Martin-Richie Incognito fiasco—at least until Incognito goes all Chris Kluwe and sues someone for being fired from his job. (more…)
Andy: I beat the drum ad nauseum last year and I’m coming strong on this division again in 2014. Seattle and San Francisco are, in my opinion, the two best teams in football and the other two – Arizona and St. Louis – could very well be top five teams in the NFC.
I’m not sure who slots where just yet, but I will tune in every chance I get to watch the divisional match-ups these teams play. For the most part this is going to be hard-core, old-school, smash-mouth football. Sign me up.
Tony: The problem with this division, or any division that ends up being this strong, is that teams may end up beating each other up to the point that none of them end up with a high seed in the playoffs, which could end up letting a team like the Packers or Bears get home field advantage—which could play havoc with these West Coast teams.
Fortunately (I guess), it didn’t happen last year with the Seahawks grabbing the #1 overall seed. The 49ers ended up as the 5 seed, even though they tied for the second best record in the conference. And the Cardinals missed out on the playoffs, despite a better record than the NFC North champion Packers, and possibly a better team than the NFC East champion Eagles.
The scariest part for the rest of the conference (and league)? It could be argued that all four teams are better this year than last. The Seahawks lost some key cogs (Golden Tate, Brandon Browner, Walter Thurmond), but their backups in the defensive backfield were better than most team’s starters, and having Percy Harvin for a full year (and the addition of Paul Richardson and Kevin Norwood should more than make up for the loss of Tate (and retirement of perennial injury report occupant Sidney Rice). (more…)
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