ZB Notebook 10-01-2013

by | Oct 1, 2013 | 2013 season, NFL Random Thoughts

The New Orleans Saints are for real. They’re better than Atlanta. They’re clearly better than Miami. It was easy to see through the first month of the season that they were going to be better than in 2012. But the ease with which the Saints dismantled the Dolphins last night made it crystal clear: The Saints are for real.

Drew Brees took the offense up and down the field at will. And the defense teed off on Ryan Tannehill, sacking him four times and not giving him any chance to get comfortable at all.

I think this game is more indicative of the strength of the Saints than an indictment of Miami. The Dolphins have plenty of issues to solve – particularly its need to better protect Tannehill. But Miami also is an improved team on the upswing. This was a good, dominant win for New Orleans on a national stage.

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ZB Game of the Week: Dolphins at Saints

by | Sep 28, 2013 | 2013 season, Football Stadiums

Heading into the season I would not have expected to be looking forward to this game as much as I am. The Saints were clearly going to be better than in 2012, but undefeated and dominant, particularly on defense, is unexpected. The Dolphins were also going to be better. But so far the fish have stuck right with New England for tops in the AFC East.

Monday Night Football does not get many of the prime games anymore, but they lucked in to a dual between two 3-0 teams this week. It should be a good one to watch. Brian Miller, editor of PhinPhanatic.com, and Bill Stephens, a writer for SaintsGab.com, have both shared some thoughts on how this game will play out. (more…)

Bet the Mortgage: Week 4, 2013 NFL Best Bets

by | Sep 26, 2013 | 2013 season, NFL Gambling

weekly-betsMy waiting until the last minute last weekend proved to finally put me on the profitable side of the board–I still only went 2-2 for the week, but My +350 Indianapolis over San Fran bet put me up a total of $457 for the week, to climb back to $9,791 for the season. One solid week can put me on the plus side for the season.

Andy, meanwhile, also went 2-2 for week, but missed his bigger bets ($250 on Minnesota and $300 on the Detroit/Washington over). He did make money with his Kansas City upset pick (I was as surprised that was seen as an upset as he was that Chicago’s win was surprising), and finished +$318 for the week, giving him a commanding lead of $1,214 over me with his current $11,005 bankroll.

So, in summary, here’s where we stand.

  Week 3 Season Bankroll +/-
Andy 2-2 6-6 $11,005 + $1,005
Tony 2-2 4-8 $9,791 – $209

Week 4 brings another tough slate of games, with only 3 games coming in with a line of a touchdown or more, and most falling in the 1-4 point range.

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NFL Picks 2013: Week 4

by | Sep 24, 2013 | 2013 season, NFL Picks

Sunday was one of those “who the hell knows” days when you just never know what’s going to happen in the NFL. A Cleveland team that’s ownership doesn’t even want to win in 2013 beat a desperate Vikings team that had hoped to rebound from an 0-2 start during its home opener. Indianapolis went on the road and not only beat the popular Super Bowl favorite 49ers, but destroyed them. Carolina shut out a flailing Giants team. And the ranks of the unbeaten include New Orleans and Miami.

So it might be fitting that Tony, who often preaches picking the thing you think most unlikely to happen, won the week with an 11-5 mark. All things considered, none of us were destroyed by the upsets. Anthony Maggio finished 10-6 while Rich and I trailed at 9-7. This produces a three-way tie for first in our season rankings.

Here are the standings heading into week four:

Week three Season total
Tony 11-5 32-16
Maggio 10-6 32-16
Andy 9-7 32-16
Rich 9-7 27-21

Week four brings on the first bye weeks and a slate of games that doesn’t have a lot of divisional rivalry games, but again pits a mix of teams you don’t get a chance to see play all that often. It also includes the NFL’s annual trek to London. This year the game features a rematch of Super Bowl IX. Unfortunately, that game was held 38 years ago. In 2013, both teams enter the game 0-3.weekly-picks

Here are our picks for the week:

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ZB Game of the Week: Packers at Bengals

by | Sep 21, 2013 | 2013 season, Game of the week

There weren’t a lot of obvious game of the week picks for week three. There aren’t many division rivalry games that are likely to mean a lot in the standings at season’s end. And it’s too early to say who is matching up in a game that will have playoff tiebreaker ramifications. So I ended up going with this game because for a couple reasons. First, I think the Bengals and the Packers are both playoff teams and, very possibly, both division champions. But secondly, I was piqued by this match-up because of the potentially psychological ramifications for the Bengals.

For many years, Cincy was at the bottom of the barrel of the NFL. Marvin Lewis has taken them to a level of respectability now, with two consecutive playoff appearances, but I don’t think many have taken them seriously as a Super Bowl contender, particularly as they’ve fought to get out of the shadow of Baltimore and Pittsburgh. This year, the Bengals definitely have a chance to overtake those two rivals and winning a game like this would prove, not only to fans, but to themselves that they are truly a contender. Meanwhile, the Packers play their first road game since getting beaten by San Francisco in week one and Green Bay must win to keep up with a Chicago team that has gotten out of the gates well.

Ray Rivard, editor of LombardiAve.com, and Jason Marcum, editor of Stripe Hype, have joined Zoneblitz to share their thoughts on this contest. (more…)

Bet the Mortgage: Week 3, 2013 NFL Best Bets

by | Sep 19, 2013 | 2013 season, NFL Gambling

Last week Tony waited until just before kickoff to make his bets. Not sure if he figured it would help his accuracy or not, but it seems like it just gave him more time to over think.weekly-bets

He again hit just one of four bets, dropping him to 2-6 for the season. He’s down to $9,334 from our $10,000 starting point.

I’m not doing real well – another 2-2 mark put me at 4-4 for the season. But I’m at least hitting the bigger ones. I’ve added $687 to my $10,000 start.

Tony is heading off to a bachelor party. He promises to get his picks added in here at some point. But I wanted to get this posted, because I’ve got a betting interest in the Thursday night game. So, here goes week three.

UPDATE: It’s not so much improving my accuracy, it’s that after two weeks, I clearly would make more money if I didn’t make bets. (more…)