Bet the Mortgage: Week 7, 2013 NFL Best Bets

by | Oct 17, 2013 | 2013 season, NFL Gambling

weekly-betsWell, I’m back in country after dodging those suits, and based on last week, I should be debt free…for at least a week.

I nailed all but my upset pick last week, raking an impressive $1,215 for the week, which puts me in the black and in the lead for the season. That, thanks to Andy’s rough 0-4 week, that cost him $900. He’s still hanging on to a profit for the season, but I’ve had burger’s in Vegas that would put him in the red.

Week 6 Season Week +/- Bankroll Season +/-
Andy 0-4 10-14 -$900 $10,007 + $17
Tony 3-1 11-13 +$1,215 $11,004 + $1,004

This week, Andy will try to get back on track with his lengthy explanations starting tonight, while I stick with my short game thoughts on Sunday games.

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NFL Picks 2013: Week 7

by | Oct 15, 2013 | 2013 season, NFL Picks

Tony crushed in week six. He took over the lead in bets and he dominated the picks with a 12-3 week that was headlined by weekly-pickspicking San Diego to upset Indianapolis. The strong performance propels him into second place overall, just one game behind the leader.

It was a tough week for fantasy expert Maggio. He might have done alright helping people with their bye week waiver wire pickups, but he missed seven of 15 games. He drops to third. Rich is bringing up the end, but he’s slowly and surely working his way back into the mix after a difficult start.

Here are the standings as we head into week seven.

Week six Season totals
Andy 10-5 59-33
Tony 12-3 58-34
Maggio 8-7 55-37
Rich 10-5 53-39

So we’re all kind of holding our own as teams go back and forth winning games that surprise us and then losing games they shouldn’t. Denver seems to be heads and shoulders above everyone else so far. The Broncos seemed disappointed by beating Jacksonville by only two touchdowns. Everyone else seems to be capable of losing to anyone at anytime.

So, that being said, here are our week seven picks. (more…)

ZB Notebook 10-15-13

by | Oct 15, 2013 | 2013 season, NFL Random Thoughts

Is Leslie Frazier feeling desperate? Frazier and the Vikings coaching staff have to be feeling the heat after an embarrassing 35-10 loss to Carolina dropped this 2012 playoff team’s record to 1-4.

ESPN 1500 notes in its writeup on the Vikings/Panthers game that Frazier uncharacteristically placed some of the blame for Sunday’s loss on the players rather than taking it all upon himself as he often does.

While it’s true that the players were pathetic in Sunday’s loss, Frazier’s defense of his coordinators – particularly offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave – rings hollow to me. The lack of creativity just oozed from the screens as I consistently watched the Vikings repeatedly run Peterson on first down, maybe run him again on second down or maybe run a short pass. Then on third down, it’d be another pass, generally short of the first-down marker.

All this going on while other teams were going deep, mixing up sequences, passing on first down … this team is foundering right now and the offensive play calling, whether based on a blasé coordinator or lack of confidence in the players, is a major reason.

The defense isn’t helping at all either. The Vikings made a major blunder in the offseason in letting Antoine Winfield go. Xavier Rhodes has shown flashes of being a solid cover cornerback, but Josh Robinson is a liability in the slot. I don’t generally pretend to be an expert on personnel moves, but Robinson needs to grab some bench. He was scorched on one of the long touchdowns during the 35-10 loss to Carolina and if he hasn’t found his way to the bench in favor of lesser-known-but-better-performing Marcus Sherels, then there is no accountability left in how this team is being handled. (more…)

ZB Game of the Week: Saints at Patriots

by | Oct 11, 2013 | 2013 season, Game of the week

Coming off a lost season in which its defense was as bad as any in the history of the NFL, the New Orleans Saints have put 2012 behind them and exploded back into relevance this year. The offense looks as good as ever and the defense, under new coordinator Rob Ryan, is not just better, but dominant. The combination has led to a 5-0 start.

New Orleans faces probably its biggest test of the season so far this Sunday, however, when the team heads to Massachusetts to take on New England. The Patriots have not looked great at any point this season, but before faltering in the rain last week against Cincinnati, they had still run off four straight wins without a defeat.

Tom Brady gets a couple veteran weapons back this weekend in Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola and, after a month of real games, rookie skill players should be ready to contribute more as well. It’s still early, but this should be an exciting matchup of two teams likely headed toward the postseason. Bill Stephens, a writer with SaintsGab, and Rich Hill, managing editor of Pats Pulpit, have joined Zoneblitz to share their thoughts on the keys to the game. (more…)

Bet the Mortgage: Week 6, 2013 NFL Best Bets

by | Oct 11, 2013 | 2013 season, NFL Gambling

I’m far from saying we’re getting good at this sports gambling thing because we’re not. But we did put up a competent weekly-betsperformance in week five.

After a rough fourth week, I rebounded to hit three of four bets. My big moneyline bet on Jacksonville predictably did not pay off, but I hit my other three for a gain of $530 on $900 worth of bets.

It helped me and Tony both that Dallas and Denver went waaaaaaaaay over the 56.5 number. I had $250 on that bet. Tony had a massive $400 wager on the over. That propelled him to a $171 profit for the weekend on $900 in bets, even though he split at 2-2.

So I’m continuing to slowly add to the mythical $10,000 I started with. I’m closing in on $11,000, which would be a 10 percent return – not any kind of early retirement track, but better than investing in a CD. Tony got off to a rough start, but as you can see in the table below, he is rebounding nicely and approaching the break even mark.

Here’s to more weeks like the last one.

Week 5 Season Week +/- Bankroll Season +/-
Andy 3-1 10-10 +$530 $10,917 + $917
Tony 2-2 8-12 +$171 $9,789 – $211

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NFL Picks 2013: Week 6

by | Oct 8, 2013 | 2013 season, NFL Picks

We here at Zoneblitz had a tough Week 5 with none of our contributors hitting more than eight of the 14 contests. Several upsets and many unpredictable games between, frankly, bad teams left us all bunched together.weekly-picks

Consequently nobody gained or lost a lot of ground. I remain the leader. But just six games separate the top from the bottom in our standings for the season. So a big week by any one of us could create quite a swing.

Here are the standings:

  Week five Season totals
Andy 8-6 49-28
Maggio 8-6 47-30
Tony 7-7 46-31
Rich 7-7 43-34

We’re close to the one-third mark of the season so you’d think picking these games would get easier. But if you look over the last three weeks there have been a number of coin flip games. That continues into week six, with a couple of divisional games and a slate of contests between teams that don’t often play. So we’ll see if any of us can hit the jackpot.

Here are our picks: (more…)