AFC South prediction 2012

by | Sep 5, 2012 | 2012 season

AFC South

I think this will be one of the earlier decided divisions, as the South consists of Houston and everyone else. The biggest question I see is how far the Texans can go in the playoffs. With a little luck on the health front, this could be as good a team as anyone else in the league.

Houston Texans: As long as the big three offensive playmakers stay healthy the Texans are as big a challenger for the Super Bowl as any team in the AFC. Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson are fantastic but injury prone. The defense is top-notch as well, even with the loss of oft-injured Mario Williams. Again, the health issue is key, but this team could force a changing of the guard this season.

Tennessee Titans: This team was a quiet 9-7 in 2011 and four of those losses were by a touchdown or less. Chris Johnson is back and will have a much better year. Jake Locker is the question mark. If he plays well, the Titans could compete for a wild card berth in the playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts: Third place is a tossup. I like Andrew Luck, but there is a dearth of talent on this team with the exodus of Peyton Manning and much of the nucleus of the team that was so competitive throughout the 2000s. I think they’ll be fun to watch, but they’re not going to challenge for many wins until 2013.

Jacksonville Jaguars: If Blaine Gabbert performs up to his draft status, it’ll help the Jaguars immensely. This is a team that to me just seems stuck. It wouldn’t surprise me if they are able to jump up to third place but I don’t see them doing much more.

NFL Best Bets: Week 1 – 2012

by | Sep 4, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Gambling

Neither of us put any fear into the “betting experts” last year when we started doing our “Best Bets.” But we had a good time doing them. So we’re bringing them back for another year.

There’s not a whole lot of science that goes into our picks. We look things over, ponder what we know and have read, and try to find a couple pointspreads that look off. As I learn every time I try to bet against the spreads, those are hard to find. Vegas generally does an amazing job figuring out how these games are going to go.

Nonetheless, here are our thoughts on the best bets for the opening week of the 2012 NFL football season. Take these for what they’re worth – virtually nothing. (more…)

AFC North prediction 2012

by | Sep 4, 2012 | 2012 season

AFC North

This is one of the most interesting divisions in the league as there are two established super-teams and two upstarts that are coming on with fair amounts of young talent. I’m not sure the changing of the guard happens this season, but the North could be flipped upside down over the next couple years.

Baltimore Ravens: Joe Flacco is playing for a contract. The Ravens came one dropped pass from the Super Bowl last year. Could there be a hangover? Sure. Could a couple of aging components of a still-solid defense break down? Sure. Is this team probably the best in the division for at least one more year? I think so.

Pittsburgh Steelers: I think even the team’s own front office expected to take a step back this season due to salary cap issues and age. The Steelers gambled and won in tendering Mike Wallace at just a first round level heading into free agency. His return ensures a solid downfield passing game. Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman not only ensure a decent run threat, but they may be better than starter Rashard Mendenhall anyway. And the defense is still good enough to win.

Cincinnati Bengals: I don’t think Cincy catches Baltimore this year, but the Bengals could flip spots with the Steelers. I like Andy Dalton and AJ Green. The nucleus is getting better. Tough schedule at the start. If they come out of the gate hot, Cincinnati will fight for a playoff spot.

Cleveland Browns: The defense was good last year and the offense theoretically got better during the offseason. It’s going to take a year before Trent Richardson, Brandon Weeden, Josh Gordon and company are ready to challenge for the top of the division, but this team is no longer the Same Old Browns. They could be a tough beat for anyone.

AFC East prediction 2012

by | Sep 3, 2012 | 2012 season

AFC East

It’s been quite awhile since anyone gave New England much of a run for their money in this division. The Patriots have dominated the AFC East for just over a decade. Is that about to change? I’ve been waiting to see it for years. And I think I’m giving up.

New England Patriots: I’m done betting against Bill Belichick. Whenever I think someone has caught him (Last year’s New York Jets), I’m pitifully and embarrassingly wrong. The Patriots will win the division until they get bored doing so. Or until Tom Brady retires. Neither of which has happened yet.

Buffalo Bills: The other reason it’s easy to pick the Patriots is no other team is quite ready to challenge them. The Bills are better. A solid defense got better with the addition of pass rusher extraordinaire Mario Williams. And the offense has a solid quarterback complemented by Fred Jackson and Stevie Johnson. This team won’t make the playoffs yet, but it is much improved.

New York Jets: Rex Ryan is going to have an interesting challenge on his hands. Coming off two conference championship appearances, New York appeared primed to take over the East last year. But t he Jets imploded. Now Ryan is in a fight for his job with two mediocre-at-best quarterbacks, a mediocre-at-best running back in Shonn Greene and a supporting offensive cast that just isn’t all that impressive. If (when) we get around to writing about coaches on the hot seat, Ryan will be right at the top of the list.

Miami Dolphins: This is a season of new beginnings for Miami. They brought in Joe Philbin to coach and Ryan Tannehill to take over the quarterback position in hopes that he can be the best Dolphin quarterback since Dan Marino. In all honesty, though, the biggest thing Dolphins fans have to look forward to is seeing television shots of Tannehill’s wife. This team has no receivers, not a lot of skill players the rest of the way around, a mediocre defense and, really, a pretty miserable chance to do anything this season. Philbin might be a fine coach but Miami is a couple years away from contending for anything, at best.

NFC West prediction 2012

by | Sep 2, 2012 | 2012 season

NFC West

No contest here. The 49ers went 13-3 last season and finished a fumbled punt short of the Super Bowl. The offense is better and the defense is just as good as it was. The rest of the division is in catch-up mode for the time being.

San Francisco 49ers: All I needed to see to pick San Francisco to win this division was the return of all 11 starters from a defense that was as solid and fundamentally sound as any I have seen in years. The offense doesn’t need to do much, but will also be improved with the additions of Mario Manningham and a supposedly motivated Randy Moss. The 49ers will compete for the NFC’s top seed.

St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford’s healthier, Steven Jackson has a top-notch understudy in Isaiah Pead and Jeff Fisher is a top-notch coach. I’m not expecting playoffs from this team but they’ll be better. That’ll be enough to move them up a couple notches in the division.

Seattle Seahawks: The bottom three spots in this division are a bit of a tossup in my eyes. In Russell Wilson and Matt Flynn, Seattle has improved dramatically at the quarterback position, which should help take some of the focus away from Marshawn Lynch and the run game too. If the offensive line can keep Wilson upright, I could see the Seahawks sneaking into second place.

Arizona Cardinals: The offensive line is brutal, the run game is unsettled and the quarterback position is in disarray. I feel for Larry Fitzgerald, one of the top couple receivers in the game, because he’s stuck catching passes from John Skelton and Kevin Kolb, both of whom are hampered both in talent and protection. I see a long year in the desert.

NFC South prediction 2012

by | Sep 1, 2012 | 2012 season

NFC South

This division will also be quite competitive but it’s more of a two-team race. At least this year I expect the two teams that fought for the crown last year to be back on top again with two younger teams fighting to make their way into the upper-half of the division.

Atlanta Falcons: I’m a believer. With a more aggressive offense and a year under the belt of burgeoning stud Julio Jones, coupled with the penalties the Saints are paying for their BountyGate Scandal, I think this is the year Matt Ryan takes a step forward and the Falcons make a move deeper into the playoffs.

New Orleans Saints: They’re missing much of the coaching staff and a couple players off the defense, but the Saints still have Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, Marques Colston and others. They’ll have to score a lot of points to win games but I don’t think that’s going to be an issue.

Carolina Panthers: Even if Cam Newton’s numbers decline from those he put up in 2011 it wouldn’t necessarily mean he isn’t improving as a quarterback. But there still is a matter of the talent around him, which I do think is improving but not quite enough yet to start challenging for the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: There’s some talent on this team but the group as a whole rolled over like dogs the second half of last season. There’s a new coaching staff that won’t put up with that, but it’ll take some time. I like Doug Martin at running back. Josh Freeman took several steps backward last year. Does he step forward? Or is 2011 more an indication of what he really is? I’ll believe in this team when I see them do something on the field.