NFL Picks, 2012 Season Week 2

by | Sep 11, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Picks

When we were talking about ways to make the weekly pick segment more interesting we decided to add a team blogger to the mix. I think we’re going to change the segment up on the fly and try to see if we can make sure that whoever we contact for “celebrity blogger” status is covering a team that had something interesting happen the previous week.

This week we have two: Kevin Ewoldt, managing editor of Hogs Haven, and Steven Mullenax, editor of The Landry Hat. The Landry Hat got to watch its underdog Dallas Cowboys convincingly put it to the New York Giants in the season opener last Wednesday.

Mullenax celebrated his team’s win with a series of A-Team awards, singling out the performances of a number of Cowboys’ players from the win.

One of the most exciting parts of week one was watching the performance of Robert Griffin III, or RGIII, or as Ewoldt calls him, RG!!!. While the Redskins have a way to go, the team appears to finally have a franchise quarterback for the first time in 20 years, much to the delight of Ewoldt, managing editor of Hogs Haven.

He acknowledges the advantages Washington had in preparing for the game, which included distractions from bounty-gate, the absence of head coach Sean Payton and the lack of any ability to game-plan against the Redskins’ rookie quarterback. But Ewoldt also expressed excitement at how Griffin was able to live up to — and perhaps exceed – an almost insurmountable amount of hype leading up to the opener.

“It’ll be very interesting to see how RGIII plays against the Rams,” he says. “He took a lot of hits despite that great performance and how the secret is out on our personnel. If he’s going to play 16 weeks, the Redskins need to protect him better. But it’s clear Washington D.C. finally has a franchise-worthy QB again. … It only took us 20 years and three extra draft picks.”

Last week’s guest, Neal Coolong from Behind the Steel Curtain, beat us both with his Minnesota, NY Jets and Tampa Bay picks. For purposes of keeping score, we’ll use the score from whichever of the two guests gets the most games correct.

Celebrity Bloggers 11-5
Tony 8-8
Andy 8-8

Without further ado, here are all four of our thoughts on who will win in week two:
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ZB Notebook 09-10-12

by | Sep 11, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Random Thoughts

Five rookie quarterbacks started their careers on Sunday. Only one looked really good. From the start of the game, Robert Griffin III looked in control of Washington’s game against New Orleans. Despite the Saints having a chance to tie the game with a final drive, there really wasn’t a point during which it seemed like Washington was in any real trouble. That’s a huge credit to Griffin, who does appear to be the best quarterback the Redskins have had since … Joe Theismann?

There will be rough patches as teams gather film on this composed rookie, but I may have been wrong predicting another season in the cellar of the NFC East for the Redskins. This guy looks good.

None of the other rookies fared well in their debuts. Andrew Luck got beat up by Chicago. I still think he’s going to be fine, but when the Colts fell behind the Bears and the run game provided little support, Luck was out of … luck.  It is important to note the similarities between the first games of Luck and one Peyton Manning, however. CBS put up the linked graphic during the game broadcast. Colts fans can take solace in the likelihood that better days are ahead.

Russell Wilson showed glimpses that he’s going to be alright, though he ended up not able to pull the Seattle game out in the end against Arizona. Cleveland’s Brandon Weeden and Miami’s Ryan Tannehill both had forgettable debuts. A statistical breakdown of their performances can be found at RealRedskins.com.
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Sell High on RG3

by | Sep 10, 2012 | 2012 season, Fantasy Football

No doubt about it—Robert Griffin III started his career with a bang on Sunday, with 320 yards, 2 TD passes with no interceptions, and 10 rushes for 48 yards (the gaudy fantasy stats), not to mention a 73% completion percentage, a 139.9 QB rating and most importantly, a win.

The start (and the hype) remind me of a quarterback that I doubted coming into the league last year, and whom RG3 has oft been compared to this year, for right or wrong—Cam Newton. There were some differences, of course—Newton threw for over 100 more yards in his first game, and threw a pick, and ran one in—but his rating was lower (110.4), his completion percentage was lower (65%), and he only put up 18 yards rushing. Of course, his team also lost to an average opponent, rather than beating a potential division winning team.

Even with all that, if I had him in any fantasy football leagues, I would start looking for the best way to sell high—possibly as early as between Week 2-3, but almost definitely after Week 6.

The hype surrounding RG3’s performance yesterday is astounding—but let’s not forget what happened to Newton after he broke out huge to start 2011:

  • Yes, Newton ended up throwing for 4,051 yards, but nearly 60% of those yards came in the first 8 games of the season, and almost 35% came in the first month of the season, compared to 19% in the more important final four games of the season
  • He threw for 21 touchdowns, which in today’s NFL is an extremely pedestrian number, especially with 17 picks; they were distributed fairly evenly throughout the year, at least
  • While Newton ran for an incredible 14 touchdowns, which catapulted him into many top 5 QB lists for 2011, he only ran for one touchdown in the final four weeks of the season, and half of his TD’s came in 3 individual games
  • Using a fairly standard scoring system, while Newton put up about 365 points in 2011, only 22% came in the final four weeks of the season, and less than half came in the second half of the year

So how does Newton’s performance lead to a sell high conclusion on Griffin? Even if you don’t think they are similar quarterbacks, most likely, if Griffin continues strong in his first few games, he will face exactly what Newton did–teams starting to scheme for specifically for Newton’s strengths, which forced him to change his game. Not to say he didn’t make some adjustments—his 3 passing TD/1 rushing TD performance in Week 16 presumably won a lot of teams their league’s title last year—if they survived Week 14 & 15, and if they made it to the playoffs at all.

It adds up to perfect scenario for RG3 owners to sell high early in the season, especially as he starts to face defenses tougher than the Saints.

  • He has nice match-ups in Week 2 (although the Rams do have improved corner play) and Week 6 (Minnesota)
  • Possibly nice match-ups against the Buccaneers (Week 4, the team that Newton shredded in Week 16 last year) and Atlanta in Week 5.
  • By Week 7, though, division games start for the Redskins—and the Giants in particular have a long history of making MVP quarterbacks look average.
  • Add in a fantasy playoff schedule that features the Ravens in Week 14 (possibly with Terrell Suggs back) and Eagles in Week 16 (with possible playoff implications on the line),

The more I look at it, the more the prospect of upgrading potentially a couple of spots by trading high on RG3 makes sense. What do some RG3 fantasy owners think about it?

AFC West prediction 2012

by | Sep 6, 2012 | 2012 season

AFC West

Newcomers to the division and several players who return from injuries make the AFC West one of the more difficult divisions to prognosticate heading into the season. The division has long been tight and with three teams coming off 8-8 seasons and the fourth a close 7-9, this is no different. I think two teams get noticeably better this year and two stay the same or get worse.

Kansas City Chiefs: Two years ago the Chiefs came from nowhere to win the West. A slip last year wasn’t surprising, particularly with the loss of Sean Berry, Tony Moeaki and Jamaal Charles early on. This year Kansas City looks to rebound, with those three returning and the addition of battering ram Peyton Hillis, whom I expect to have a big season. This will be a tight one but I think the Chiefs prevail.

Denver Broncos: The higher profile Peyton joining the AFC West this year is Manning, who will lead the Broncos to the playoffs. But I think it’s going to take him a short bit to shake off some rust. I like the Broncos to keep it close and they’ll be right there in the mix at the end.

Oakland Raiders: The Raiders were one of three teams to tie for the AFC West crown last season at 8-8. I like what I’ve seen from the Raiders’ new brass in the wake of the passing of Al Davis last year. But after trading for Carson Palmer, Oakland was a bit hamstrung when it came to improving the team in the short-term. I think the Raiders will be back before too long, and they’ll surprise a few teams this year, but it’s going to take a couple before they can challenge this year’s versions of the Broncos and Chiefs.

San Diego Chargers: Disappointing last year, the Chargers lost Vincent Jackson to free agency and Vincent Brown for the early part of the season to a broken ankle. The offensive line is in some disarray. Ryan Mathews is great when he can play but he’s anything but durable. This team is playing for Norv Turner’s job. I think they fail.

Cowboys-Giants reaction

by | Sep 5, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Random Thoughts

I always get excited and overreact to what I see during the first game of the season. Tonight was no different.

My first reactions to the Dallas-New York opener:

1) Mostly boring. Neither team really seemed to have it going on tonight. There were very few big, downfield plays, long run plays, etc. Both defenses were good. Both offenses need work.

2) Dallas might be better than expected: The defensive backfield, powered by rookie corner draftee Morris Claiborne and free agent cornerback signee Brandon Carr, is much improved. Last year Eli Manning threw for something like 1500 yards in two games against Dallas. Tonight he was well under 300, in part because his two key receivers — Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz — could not get open. The offensive line is still abysmal. Tony Romo was getting crushed all over the place. But overall I was much more impressed with Dallas than I expected.

3) Giants might be less than expected: Last year was a tale of two seasons. Through 14 games New York was 7-7. That unspectacular stretch was followed by a spectacular run to the Super Bowl. That’s the last thing people remember. So expectations may have been inflated by that. Tonight’s team looked nothing like the Super Bowl winner. Granted, it’s one game. But it was a key divisional game on national television opening the season. And the results were underwhelming. I’m not judging an entire season by it, but I am muting my opinion on the Giants. They are still in the mix as a favorite, but they’ve allowed a division rival to get a leg up on them in a game they should have won at home.

4) Replacement refs played minor role: Sure, there may have been a missed call here and an overblown call there, but tonight I saw little difference between the replacements and the “real” refs. The flow of the game was never interrupted. The missed calls were not of any major variety. And I don’t believe any team can claim they were cost a victory from what went on tonight. As stated in my notebook earlier today, both teams have to live with them and in most cases bad calls even out. Tonight the replacements acquitted themselves well.

Rip away in the comments section if you’d like. But welcome to the 2012 football season.

NFL Picks, 2012 Season Week 1

by | Sep 5, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Picks

Looking back at 2011, both Andy and I had pretty solid seasons picking games straight up–Andy edged me slightly at the end of the year, with an 11-5 record in Week 17 to my 9-7, putting him at 171-85 for the year (67%) to my 167-88 (65.5%). But while we were alright at picking games, we’ve got to keep pushing ourselves–so we’re adding celebrity team blogger to the picks each week. This week Neal Coolong (@NealCoolong), editor with Behind the Steel Curtain, was kind enough to join us.

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