NFL Picks, 2012 season, Week 10

by | Nov 5, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Picks

They’ve been criticized for playing a soft schedule, which so far has included only one opponent with a winning record at the time of their game. Their quarterback was demonized for shoving an offensive lineman during a nationally televised loss to Green Bay.

But since that week two loss, the Bears are 6-0 and they looked like the real deal Sunday in putting a 50-spot up against the Tennessee Titans. Like Jay Cutler or not, believe in that supposedly aging defense or not, it’s a team that, at this point, looks loaded.

“The 2012 Chicago Bears have what it takes to make a trip back to the Super Bowl,” says Jake Perper, owner of Bearsbacker.com. “The Bears’ defense is elite, the Bears’ special teams is rock solid and the Bears’ offense is coming together, especially the running game with Matt Forte. If they can continue to stay healthy and can continue to create turnovers at will on defense, they will be hard to stop.”

Perper notes that the offense has to limit its mistakes and the team cannot afford many scares such as the one posed by a plucky Carolina squad a week ago. The tough part of the schedule, including back-to-back contests with Houston and San Francisco and four remaining division games, will determine where this team goes. But Perper is a believer.

“I think when it is all said and done, this year we will be calling them contenders.”

Hard to argue based on what we’ve seen so far.

Perper joined us for the week 10 pick segment. He follows Steve Isbitts from JoeBucsFan.com. Isbitts struggled to an 8-6 finish while Tony dominated at 11-3 and Andy was close behind at 10-4. That leaves the collective blogger community tied with the brothers heading into week 10. Ahh, the drama.

Week Nine Season
Celebrity Bloggers 8-6 83-49
Andy 10-4 83-49
Tony 11-3 83-49

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ZB Notebook 11-1-2012

by | Nov 1, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Random Thoughts

I didn’t fare well at the tables in Las Vegas last weekend so, while I was licking my wounds, I had plenty of time to follow the Sunday football games. Throughout the day and in the days that followed, what stuck with me is that there are a number of teams that have to be thinking about major changes, including potentially sacking their head coaches.

I wouldn’t have guessed heading into the season that Romeo Crennel in Kansas City would have topped my list. But not only did the Chiefs suffer yet another complete dismantling, this time at the hands of rival Oakland, but Crennel admitted after the game he had no idea why running back Jamaal Charles had just five rushes and eight total touches throughout the game.

Really? No idea at all? You are the head guy there. You have a certain  amount of say in stuff like that. If I was the owner of that team, I’m not sure I would have let Crennel out of the stadium without a better explanation.

There was talk of how the Raiders loaded the box against the run. Understandable. So throw Charles the ball. He is great out of the backfield too, isn’t he? When you’re having a bad day but the score is close your best players have to touch the ball.

It was a bad performance all the way around for an organization whose coach and general manager, Scott Pioli, are on the hotseat. But it was just one of many bad days for coaches.

Chargers ready to replace Norv Turner?: Heading into tonight’s game, perhaps the hottest seat of all belongs to Norv Turner, the oft-criticized head man in San Diego. The Chargers are being investigated by the NFL for the possibility that the team used stick ‘em in a game a couple weeks ago. If they don’t beat the Chiefs tonight, he might need some of that banned substance to hang onto his job. (more…)

NFL Best Bets: Week Nine – 2012

by | Nov 1, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Gambling

I went to Las Vegas last weekend armed with the confidence of having gone 3-1 in my best bets in week seven. I then proceeded to get hammered, both at the blackjack tables and in the sports book, where I won a small bet on Notre Dame at +400 on the moneyline, but lost three others.

I also had another rough week against the spread on this site, going 1-3 (though I did hit my upset pick) and dropping to 11-21 overall. Tony has not been a ton better. He’s 13-19 for the season, having gone 2-2 last week.

We’d probably both be well into our second or third set of broken legs had we placed any real money on these bets. But since it’s all pretend and nobody should really be taking us seriously by this point, (gambling is bad …  but so much fun!!!) we’ll do it again.

Here goes:

Andy

Atlanta (-4) vs Dallas – The Cowboys, to me, are just a mediocre team. They’ve got wins against Carolina, Tampa Bay and division rival New York. They’ve got losses against Chicago, Baltimore, surprising Seattle and those same Giants. So they mostly beat bad teams and an occasional division opponent and they mostly lose to good ones. The Falcons won’t put up the same offense they have all season. Dallas remains good against the pass. They’ve lost against the spread in both of their last home games, but those were 10 and seven point spreads. This one is just four. Five of their seven wins have been by more than that and this one will not be an exception.

Arizona at Green Bay: Under 43.5 – Cardinals games have gone under the number seven out of eight times this season, including four times in a row. The defense isn’t going to stop Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay, but it’ll slow them down some. It’s succeeded in holding New England to 18 and Philadelphia to six in contests against teams that theoretically had good offenses. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have scored 36 points in the last four games. This is a recipe for another under.

Philadelphia at New Orleans: Over 52 – Up until last week, New Orleans had not scored fewer than 24 points all season. The defense has not given up less than 24 either. Philadelphia is fighting for its season, while Andy Reid and Michael Vick are, respectively, coaching and playing for their futures as well. I’m not sure if the Eagles are good enough to beat New Orleans on the road, but I do expect them to improve on their season high of 24 points. This should be a plenty high scoring game.

Upset of the week: Tampa Bay (+105) at Oakland – I saw the Bucs firsthand last week and they looked impressive in a win against Minnesota. They’ve had 10 days off so I don’t expect the long trip across the country to be all that troublesome. They’re still not strong against the pass, but they’re effectively stopping the run. And the offense is coming together nicely around Doug Martin and Josh Freeman. Oakland is coming off a two game winning streak, but beating Jacksonville and Kansas City this year isn’t really all that impressive. I think the Bucs are headed in the right direction and they get to .500 with a win here.

Tony

Houston (-10) vs Buffalo – I am shocked that this is only 10 points. Houston has a dynamic offense and a stout defense, even without Mario Williams. Buffalo…does not, even with Mario Williams. Enough said.

Indianapolis (+1.5) vs Miami – Indy is playing well, and playing at home. The Dolphins have played better than expected, but there is a chance that Ryan Tannehill won’t play on Sunday, with knee and thigh injuries. Matt Moore is a decent backup, but realistically if Tannehill sits, the Colts can focus even more attention on Reggie Bush, and even if Tannehill plays, I think the Colts can win this one outright.

Carolina at Washington: Over 46.5 – In the showdown between Cam Newton and RG3, the hot rookie QB from last year that has struggled as a sophomore vs. the current rookie that is “tearing up” the league (I’m not sold), I think they can each put up 23 points easily. Then again, I’m notorious for missing these, so feel free to take the under. I won’t be offended.

Upset of the Week: Philadelphia (+155) at New Orleans – There is serious talk of benching Michael Vick, and if he struggles against the Saints, I would be shocked if it doesn’t happen, even in game. For some reason, I don’t see it happening. I see Vick rebounding (for this week) to hold the job, and tantalize the Eagles just enough to hang on to the job for another week or two, before finally bombing for the season and costing Andy Reid his job.

To see our picks for the week, click here.

NFL Picks, 2012 season, Week 9

by | Oct 31, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Picks

Josh Freeman has looked great for the better part of a month. Doug Martin seems to be getting it. And Tampa Bay’s run defense is right there with the best in the NFL. When the Bucs destroyed Minnesota last week, it put Tampa in a position to end the first half of the season at 4-4 and spend the second half chasing a playoff spot.

Fans talking playoffs may be jumping the gun a bit, but this team is on the right track, says Steve Isbitts, co-founder of JoeBucsFan.com.

“Sober, reasoned Bucs fans are largely happy this season is playing out as expected with encouraging, inconsistent football,” he says. “Look for the Bucs to continue to be very physical and explosive with mixed results. This is a .500 team on the right track. Nothing more. Nothing less.”

Isbitts joined Zoneblitz as our celebrity guest blogger for the week. He follows Barrett Walton from the Texans Bull Blog, who scored a 9-5 record in week eight. That tied with Tony. Both were two games behind my 11-3 record – which was good enough to overtake Tony and jump into second place for the season. I’m comin’!!!

Week Eight Season
Celebrity Bloggers 9-5 75-43
Andy 11-3 73-45
Tony 9-5 72-46

So here are the picks for week nine.

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Texans built for sustained success

by | Oct 30, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Random Thoughts

Editor’s Note: When we contacted Barrett Walton about contributing to our pick segment last week we also asked what his thoughts were on how the Texans were sitting heading into the second half of the season. I think he warned me once previously, when he did a Q&A interview for us during the offseason, that brevity was not a strong suit. He gave us way more insight than we could have used on that post, but I thought it was an interesting read.

I thought about writing a post on Houston myself and incorporating some of the comments into that, but I think Barrett’s comments can stand alone. So here’s a guest post from Barrett Walton, managing editor of the Texans Bull Blog and weekly contributor at the Austin Chronicle’s sports blog.

Entering their bye week at 6-1 and resting comfortably as the clear favorite to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Houston Texans have to be thinking “we have finally arrived.” If you were following this team closely then you realized back in 2010 that you had something special brewing down in the bayou. The Texans offense was becoming unstoppable as Arian Foster broke out of obscurity and Gary Kubiak’s zone scheme came together as a pure system offense. The defensive side of the ball was loaded with talent. All but one of Kubiak’s first round picks had been defensive players.

Like many teams trying to breakthrough into relevancy, the Houston Texans couldn’t put all the pieces in place. The 2010 defense was historically bad. Loaded with talent but with no schematic direction, the Texans couldn’t get out of their own way. While the offense was putting up over 25 points per game, the defense was giving up even more in heartbreaking fashion. (more…)

NFL Best Bets: Week Eight – 2012

by | Oct 24, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Gambling

Hey, what do you know, I finally had a good week. I whiffed badly on Baltimore sticking with Houston, but got the rest of my games correct for a 3-1 mark. That takes me to a 10-18 record for the season AND it pulls me within a game of Tony, who has struggled less than me most of the year.

But last week was a disaster for my brother as he reeled off an 0-fer-four, dropping to 11-17 for the 2012 campaign.

Hopefully this is the sign of a turnaround for me. I’ve got a weekend in Vegas planned and I’d like to not go broke betting on the gridiron for real. Here’s hoping it continues: Here are the picks for week eight. (more…)