Gronk or no Gronk, Patriots primed for playoff run

by Guest Post | Nov 20, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Random Thoughts

Editor’s note: Another of our guest bloggers sent us more than we could use for the pick segment this week. Richard Hill, assistant editor with Pats Pulpit, shared some thoughts on how New England looks heading into the latter stages of the season. We decided to turn it into a guest post. Thank you to Richard for sharing his thoughts.

The New England Patriots are coming off a convincing win against the Indianapolis Colts as the season comes down to the final stretch. The Patriots have struggled to close out teams all season and Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and the rest of the Patriots wanted to put together a full 60 minute performance. The Patriots scored a touchdown in all three phases of the game and, in doing so, tied the franchise mark for most points in a single game.

As the Ravens and the Steelers struggle with injuries and played each other to a low-scoring affair, and the Texans struggled to escape from the one-win Jaguars, the Patriots and the Broncos look to be hitting their strides at the right time. The Patriots +133 point differential is best in the league, helped by a +79 margin over the past three games (38, 6, 35), and the Broncos are riding a league leading five game winning streak behind the hot hand of Peyton Manning.

While the AFC started out as the weaker conference this season, there is little question that the top teams can all duke it out and all five teams have a chance to take home the Super Bowl title- but for now, the divisions have to jockey for positioning as the Patriots and the Broncos try to steal away the Ravens’ current first round bye.

The Broncos have the easiest schedule to close out the season, facing Kansas City twice and a game against both Oakland and Cleveland. They have the opportunity to gain ground in a face-off against the Ravens that could bring the Ravens back to pack.

The Ravens have one of the more difficult treks, with four games against teams with playoff hopes, and a couple more against the dangerous Redskins and the enigmatic Chargers, the Ravens with their dinged up defense could just as easily close the season 0-6 as they do 6-0.

The Patriots find themselves in good position to make the playoffs, needing only two more wins to clinch the division (providing one of those wins is against the Dolphins), but they have the Texans and 49ers on tap- both teams that play extremely complementary football. The Patriots need their defense to start elevating their level of play and, based upon their performance against the Colts, they could be in line for a schematic shift.

When rookie sensation Chandler Jones injured his ankle and left the game, the Patriots had no real consistent pass rush and Bill Belichick was forced to address the defense and set them straight. He dialed up the pressure and strayed from the vanilla pass rush as Andrew Luck was forced to throw in many awkward positions. Devin McCourty’s play at safety, while not at a Pro Bowl level, is miles ahead of whatever free safety they’ve plugged into the position for the past couple of seasons and his play elevates the secondary to new heights.

But while the defense needs to find its groove, the Patriots could have another serious issue on their hand: Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski is the Patriots All-Pro tight end and a key linchpin to the offense’s success and he has broken his arm and is expected to be out for the next 4-6 weeks.

Gronkowski isn’t replaceable. He’s the best tight end in the league not just for his receiving, but for his league best run blocking. The Patriots don’t have anyone on their roster who can replicate his league leading 17 red zone targets or his league leading 8 red zone touchdowns. The Patriots don’t have anyone to match his team leading 12 receptions of 20+ yards. His presence forces the safeties inside and allows the outside receivers (read: Brandon Lloyd) to have single coverage for back-shoulder throws. He prevents the secondary from crowding the box.

He keeps them honest.

Without Gronk, the Patriots have to hope Aaron Hernandez is healthy enough to take on the New York Jets. Hernandez ties Gronkowski for the 2nd most receptions against the Jets since the 2009 season (both are far behind Wes Welker), and he has the 5th most yards during that same time frame (behind Welker and Gronk).

Additionally, the Patriots need Visanthe Shiancoe, Daniel Fells, and Michael Hoomanawanui to step up in their production. Shiancoe has seen more time on the field, but he has yet to be targeted. Fells, the big free agency signing who was supposed to provide insurance in case of injuries, was a scratch on Sunday. Hoomanawanui has been a serviceable H-Back and should continue to grow.

None of those players are Gronkowski. Of course, the Patriots shouldn’t need Gronkowski to win two more games and make the playoffs (Jets, Dolphins x2, Jaguars are all projected wins), but they need a player to step up if they wish to steal a win from either Houston or San Francisco (why not both?) and secure a playoff bye.

It won’t be easy. They’ll need the Ravens to either drop two games (likely) and beat the Broncos (possible, but it’s at Mile High), or they’ll need the Broncos to stumble along the way  (not likely). The Patriots aren’t in control of their playoff destiny and they’ll have to take the season one week at a time, much like Gronkowski has to take his injury one week at a time.

Of course if there’s one thing the Patriots need to be focusing on, it’s closing out games on a week-to-week basis. Now, without Gronk, hopefully they can manage to close out the season on a high note.