NFL Picks: 2011 Season, Week 15

Andy gained one more game this week, by hitting the Atlanta/Carolina game in another solid week for both us, going 12-4 (me) and 13-3 (him).  Of course, this didn’t appear to be a difficult week to pick in the long run.

Three games separate us again this week—most likely the sink or swim week for me, with at least two considerable upsets needed for me to gain ground, in Indianapolis and Carolina, with Miami’s firing of Tony Sparano being the main reason for my choice of Buffalo over Miami.

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NFL Best Bets: 2011 season, Week 14

There continues to be a rally going on at Zoneblitz.com headquarters. Despite a horrible betting start to our season that lasted oh, about eight weeks, our bankrolls could still be salvageable.

I nailed my week 14, going 4-0 and running my four-week stretch to 12-4, 7-1 in the last two weeks. The run has allowed me to overtake my brother, with a 25-26-1 mark for the season.

Tony violated two of his main betting philosophies (he took the under and he didn’t “do the opposite”) in taking the under in the Denver/Minnesota contest, but he hit his other three picks – including the +330 moneyline in predicting the Chiefs would upset the Bears. He must have had a hunch Matt Forte would get hurt. His second straight 3-1 runs his total for the season to 25-27.

Here’s hoping it continues.
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NFL Picks: 2011 Season, Week 14

Week 13 was yet another solid week for our picks. We don’t really have anything interesting or funny to say about it—as a Viking fan who works with Packers fans, it’s been a long season, and even with a solid season of picks, I’m actually ready for the season to be over with.

Andy managed to hit two of the three games we were different on last week, going 12-4 for the week, with my San Diego pick coming through last night to keep me at 11-5—that gives him a one game lead for the season, which I can erase with a Carolina victory over Atlanta this week, the only difference in our Week 14 picks.

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Unwillingness to embrace run may again be Reid’s downfall

Philadelphia looked bored and pathetic in a 17 point loss on the road in Seattle last night, dropping the alleged Dream Team’s record to 4-8.

This underachieving mess of a team put an explanation point on its terrible season by not only getting crushed by a bad-but-competitive Seattle team. Many of its players, particularly DeSean Jackson, embarrassed themselves by appearing to loaf throughout portions of the nationally-televised game.

The season has gotten so bad that Andy Reid, one of the league’s most successful coaches over the last dozen years, is clearly on the hotseat, at least with Eagles fans.

I think it’s questionable whether Philly can find a better coach than Reid. At the same time, in this day and age, he’s outlasted most of his brethren. And often times, even the best of coaches lose their teams and have to be replaced, if only to give the 53 rostered players a new voice.

If he does end up getting canned, Reid can likely blame one of his longest-running issues – his inability to set aside his addiction to passing.

This was a bit more understandable when his best back was Brian Westbrook, an extremely exciting, but also fragile runner who had to be protected. During most of Westbrook’s tenure with the team, Correll Buckhalter, a solid-but-unspectacular contributor, was his top backup and Buckhalter wasn’t exactly able to avoid the injury bug either.

But this year Philadelphia has one of the league’s best runners in LeSean McCoy – maybe the best. The Eagles are 3-1 when he gets 23 or more carries. He produces to the tune of 552 yards rushing and four touchdowns on the ground in those games, as well.

McCoy has 12 rushing touchdowns on the season and he’s added three more through the air. I don’t think he compares quite yet with Barry Sanders, but more than once I’ve seen the NFLNetwork and other football shows show footage of Sanders when describing Shady’s footwork and his moves.

Way too often, Reid lets McCoy disappear for long stretches, again letting the offense get overly pass happy. And when he does, the team suffers. When McCoy gets fewer than 20 carries (all the rest of the games) they are 1-7.

And you can’t attribute that to those games being out of hand. In a loss to Atlanta, McCoy averaged 5.3 yards per carry on 18 carries in a four point loss. Against Buffalo, he had 80 yards on 11 carries in a touchdown loss. He has only 16 carries against Chicago, despite averaging 4.4 yards per in a six point loss and he had 81 yards on 14 carries against Arizona – 5.8 yards per carry – in a four point loss.

Against San Francisco, McCoy had just 18 yards on his nine carries. So you can argue the run wasn’t working that day against a solid defense. But A) do you take the ball entirely out of a proven weapon’s hands altogether and B) it’s often said the yardage gained matters less than the threat.

Hell, even in last night’s dud, Seattle was only up 10 and was driving late for a score that could have pulled the game within a field goal before Vince Young threw another pick.

The impact McCoy’s lack of presence has on a game has been even more noticeable the last three weeks as Vince Young has been filling in as Michael Vick lets his ribs heal. Against the Giants on November 20, McCoy got 23 carries and went for 113 yards. He didn’t score, but he helped the Eagles hold onto the ball for 36:18, keeping Eli Manning and Co. off the field. Young was hardly stellar that day, throwing three picks, but Philadelphia held on for a seven-point win.

Against New England and Seattle, McCoy had a total of 27 carries. Meanwhile, Young has thrown 48 and 29 passes in those two games and has contributed eight picks during his three-game starting stretch against four touchdown passes.

It doesn’t even have to be about scoring more points. There was a game a few years ago where Reid coached the Eagles against a terrible Oakland team with an abysmal run defense and he called only a couple handfuls of running plays. The Eagles lost in one of the most stunning upsets of the season.

This year Reid is coaching that defense. His team cannot stop the run. That should be all the more reason to pound the ball with McCoy and Ronnie Brown. Maybe you don’t get a lot more points. But running the ball takes time off the clock. Maybe by running the ball you eat up enough time where you prevent the 49ers from having the opportunity late in the game to complete the comeback from a 23-3 deficit.  As the old saying goes, the best defense is a good offense.

I will give Reid some credit. I don’t get to see every Eagles game but they’re high-profile with the networks this season and in the games I have watched he appears more willing to run the ball at the goal line. But overall, getting McCoy touches has appeared to be an obvious catalyst toward the small runs of success this team has had during its disappointing 2011 campaign. Too often the running back disappears.

That’s not McCoy’s fault. It’s Reid’s. In a year in which many of his stars have underperformed (Jackson, Asomugha, et al) or been hurt (Maclin, Vick, et al), he has got to see to it that the one weapon who has consistently produced for him all season long continues to get his hands on the ball.

His failure to do so may cost him his job.

NFL Best Bets: 2011 season, Week 13

I knew that our picks had ranged this season from wildly inconsistent to outright brutal, but it had been awhile since we looked at the totals.

So this morning I did the math. It’s been even worse than I thought. Tony started off alright, going 6-2 in the season’s opening two weeks.

It’s been all downhill from there. He’s 16-24 since for a total of 22-26. He rallied a bit in week 12, hitting three of four.

My totals are even worse at 21-26-1, though I’ve been on a bit of a good run the last three weeks, rallying at 8-4. I also hit three of four last week.

So maybe we can salvage something from these picks by the time the season ends. Here goes with week 13. Good luck. (more…)

NFL Picks: 2011 Season, Week 13

Andy finished 11-5 last week, which would normally be a solid week—unfortunately, he was up against my great football mind, which went 13-3 for the week. OK, to be fair he pretty much handed me the Green Bay/Detroit game…and the Carolina/Indianapolis game.  Still, I’ll take tied after 12 weeks.

Week 13 brings three matchups where we differ, so we’ll definitely see a leader heading into Week 14. Andy appears to be using some of my own logic against me, avoiding two west coast teams that are heading east in picking Miami over Oakland (which might be a solid pick, given how the Dolphins have been playing) and Jacksonville over San Diego. I think the running games from Oakland and Tampa Bay (over Carolina) will carry the day, and that the turmoil in Jacksonville with Jack Del Rio being fired will reign.

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