Playoffs 2011-12: Assessing the NFC

by | Jan 1, 2012 | 2011 season, NFL Random Thoughts

It’s a new year and I’m vowing to post more and better content to this blog in 2012. Well, at least more content to this blog, anyway. I’ll start with my own assessment of the NFL playoffs.

There are too many scenarios in the AFC heading into week 17. But the NFC outlook is pretty simple. There are a couple seeding issues to be resolved and then there’s the strangely bad NFC East yet to be decided, but otherwise it’s a pretty clear picture. Here’s a reverse-order assessment of who I think the conference’s biggest contenders are for the Lombardi Trophy.

(And here is a link to my thoughts on the AFC)

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NFL Best Bets: 2011 season, week 17

by | Dec 29, 2011 | 2011 season, NFL Gambling

I don’t know that I would ever want to be in Las Vegas trying to make a bunch of money betting on games played in week 17. Motivation comes into play so much in these games and it’s so hard to say ahead of time who is going to be playing hard, who is going to be resting guys for the playoffs and who is going to play as though all they want to do is pack up their stuff and go home.

It’s even harder picking games several days out, because games that look like they could potentially be important at 3 p.m. central time could be rendered meaningless by the results of games kicking off at noon.

Nonetheless, we’ve cobbled together some picks we think make sense. With last week’s results (Andy 2-2, Tony 0-4), Tony clinched a losing record (28-36 heading into week 17) for the season while I clinched a winning record (34-29-1). Neither one of us will be scaring off the actual betting experts, but what the heck. Here goes: (more…)

NFL Picks, 2011 Season Week 17

by | Dec 28, 2011 | 2011 season, NFL Picks

As predicted, we split our four games we had different last week—Andy hit on Philadelphia and Oakland, while I hit on Detroit and San Francisco, so we both finished a disappointing 10-6 for the week.

That leaves us one game apart heading into the final week, with Andy at 160-80 and myself at 159-81.  And, of course, we have four games separating us again this week, with Andy believing that the Bears, Lions, Chiefs and Ravens will win, while I think the Vikings will find a way to screw up their season even worse, Green Bay will still pull out a win, the NFL will find a way for Tebowmania to continue, and the Ravens will choke again down the stretch.

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NFL Best Bets: 2011 season, week 16

by | Dec 20, 2011 | 2011 season, NFL Gambling

I continue to wish I’d spent the last six weeks in Las Vegas, having nailed another 4-0 week and running my totals for the last month and a half to 19-5. That could turn at any time of course, and probably will, but the run has upped my season record to 32-27-1.

Tony only hit two of his four bets last week but he nailed his upset of the week, calling Indy’s first win of the season with a +245 payoff. He’s going out on an even bigger limb with his upset pick this week.

The 2-2 mark puts him at 28-32 for the season.

All in all it would have been a good weekend for both of us to be watching games from a sports book in Sin City. It feels to me like the lines on week 16 games are a little bit tougher, but we’ll make another run at it. Here goes:

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NFL Picks, 2011 Season Week 16

by | Dec 19, 2011 | 2011 season, NFL Picks

As one would expect in a week where an 0-13 team finally wins, and a 13-0 team finally loses, picks last week were amongst the worst we’ve seen all season—still, when you’re 11-5 (Tony) and 10-6 (Andy) overall, that’s not a terrible week.

That puts us at 150-74 (Andy) and 149-75 (Tony) for the season, which  puts us on par with many national “experts”.

This week, four games are picked differently—about as many as we’ve ever picked separately, and probably enough to give one of us a solid lead heading into Week 17.  Or, if things go as normal, we’ll split and still be just one game apart…

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NFL Best Bets: 2011 season, week 15

by | Dec 13, 2011 | 2011 season, NFL Gambling

Our straight-up picks might be running fairly neck and neck for the 2011 season, but I’m starting to pull away from Tony when it comes to our best bets against the spread. I hit three of four, including my Giants over Cowboys upset, running my five-week total to 15-5 and my full-season mark to 28-27-1.

Tony had been on a pretty good run, but he slipped to 1-3 last week, dropping to 26-30 for the season.

Here’s some more food for thought and (non-guaranteed) cash for your pocket, err, reading material for when you’re boss is away from the office.

Andy

Dallas (-6) at Tampa Bay – The Buccaneers aren’t the most disappointing team in the NFL this season, and they have lost seven consecutive games, a stretch during which the team’s closest loss is by six points. Dallas has lost two in a row. But they are not playing that badly, having won four in a row before the last second defeats. As long as this game does not come down to a last-second field goal the Cowboys should win this comfortably, even without DeMarco Murray running the ball.

New England (-6.5) at Denver – Tim Tebow is the buzzword of the season so far, but in reality the Broncos’ six-game win streak has been powered by a defense that has improved dramatically from the beginning of the season. But they’ve also benefitted from playing a schedule that has included Kansas City, Minnesota, Chicago minus Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, and San Diego and New York when the Chargers and the Jets were slumping. The Patriots also are amidst a five-game win streak, during which they have scored 37, 34, 38, 31 and 34 points. Denver, on the other hand, has scored 18, 10, 17, 17, 16 and 13 in six of the eight games Tebow has started. If Tebow can pull this one out I’ll consider starting to maybe become a believer. Until then I’m betting on Belichick and Brady. (Incidentally, as a bonus bet, I’d go over 46, as well. I expect the Patriots to win comfortably, but Denver will score some points on New England’s shaky defense.)

New Orleans (-7) at Minnesota – Eight of the Vikings’ 11 losses have been by seven or fewer points, so it’s not like the team has quit fighting. But the team’s defensive backs are terrible and the team has given up 165 points – or 33 a game – over the last five, even making Tebow look like an All-Pro. Drew Brees is still better than the Broncos’ signal-caller and, though his road stats aren’t as gaudy as his home ones, he’ll feel at home playing against Minnesota. The Saints are fighting for a bye and they’ll get one step closer this week in a comfortable win at the Metrodome.

Upset of the week:

Seattle (+4.5, +180) at Chicago – Chicago under Caleb Hanie’s direction has lost three in a row, scoring 33 points in three games and appearing to get progressively worse each week. Seattle has been surprisingly strong, improving to 6-7 with two strong 30-plus point performances the last two weeks during a season in which I expected they’d be sucking for Andrew Luck. The Seahawks aren’t as good on the road as they are at home, but it was clear during the last two games that they are playing with confidence and physicality. I wouldn’t expect them to hit 30 again – in fact I’d take the under in this game pretty confidently – but if they can get into the low 20s that should be enough to beat the toothless Bears.

Tony

Minnesota (+7) vs New Orleans – If I were a betting man, I would guess Andy will take the Saints and give the points (obviously we write these independent of one another). But the Vikings have lost 8 games by 7 points or fewer (granted, several of those were lost leads), and the Saints play significantly poorer on the road that at home. I do not think the Vikings will win, but I think they can keep it within seven.

Seattle (+4) at Chicago – The Bears have lost Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, and last week managed to Tebow themselves out of a win thanks to Marion Barber. The Seahawks have been playing surprisingly well for a team led by Tarvaris Jackson, thanks primarily to Marshawn Lynch.  I would consider taking them as my upset of the week, in fact, because I do expect them to win outright–but in keeping with my recent trend of picking bigger games, I’ve got a special upset for this week.

Cleveland at Arizona: Over 37.5 – Finally getting back to my theory: “If there is no way it can happen, bet for it to happen.”

Upset of the Week:
Indianapolis (+6.5, +245) vs Tennessee – Call it a hunch, but I don’t think the Colts go 0-16. They’ve got a chance to beat the Titans, especially with questions at quarterback for the Titans.