With Kurt Warner retiring Matt Leinart retakes the helm in Arizona, at least for now. If the Cardinals settle for roster status quo, that puts the fantasy football fates of superstars like Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin in the hands of a quarterback who has thrown for fewer than 4,000 yards and just 14 touchdowns since being drafted in 2006.
Zoneblitz.com expects the fantasy stats of nearly all Cardinals to take a hit, at least through the early portions of the 2010 season. Anthony Maggio, who is a freelance sports writer, a contributor to FantasyFootballChamps.com and the owner of the Punting Baxter blog, agrees that Warner’s retirement isn’t good news on the fantasy football scene.
Both Maggio and Zoneblitz agree that the Cardinals are likely to run the ball more, at least semi-balancing the lopsided pass-to-run ratio sported the last few seasons. But don’t immediately bump Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower up on your draft boards. Defenses aren’t fools. They’re likely going to dare Leinart to win games in the air, meaning they’ll dedicate extra efforts to shutting down the run game.
Maggio expects Wells, who showed signs of overcoming a fumbling problem during the latter half of 2009, to be the primary ball carrier. “Hightower may still snipe goal-line looks, but he’s almost certainly not going to be the PPR contributor he was this season and I don’t expect him to be a regular in fantasy lineups,” he says. “He’s a handcuff at best.”
The other problem with the running game is that defenses will be expecting it. They’ll likely dare Leinart to win games in the air, thus freeing up more defenders to stop the run.
The passing game stands to suffer as well. Fitzgerald remains one of the top two or three wideouts in the game. His leaping ability and hands will keep him there. But he likely drops behind Andre Johnson and possibly Reggie Wayne as the wideouts likely to be first picked (though Maggio says for now he’d still take Fitz ahead of Wayne due to the prospect of fantasy teams receiving little help from the Indy wideout during Week 16 – “But I reserve the right to change my mind on that one,” he said.).
Boldin will still see frequent targets and likely remain valuable as a fantasy player. But the Cardinals’ extra receivers, some of whom have been solid contributors and bye-week fill-ins, take a big hit. Steve Breaston, a 1,000 yard receiver in 2008, has been at worst a bye week contributor and often more the last two seasons.
Early Doucet also emerged during the playoffs and if Warner had returned he had the potential to be a fill-in play as well. That likely changes with Leinart at the helm, at least at the outset.
“I don’t think the Cardinals will pass quite as much, leaving less stats to be had in the passing game overall,” Maggio says. “Their stats will be so inconsistent that they likely won’t be usable fantasy entities.”
Warner’s retirement throws the entire roster into flux. At the moment, the only quarterback on the roster besides Leinart is Brian St. Pierre. So it would be surprising if another veteran and perhaps another developmental quarterback aren’t added at some point. But unless the Cards swing a deal for Donovan McNabb or a similarly-skilled player, it would appear as though the fantasy prospects of several Arizona players will take a hit heading into the 2010 season.
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