Buy/Sell: Eli Manning

Eli Manning
ADP: 104.4
QB: 14

Many wondered if Eli Manning’s days as a productive starter were done after a miserable 2013 campaign during which he threw 27 interceptions to just 18 TDs and saw his QB rating fall to 69.4. He rebounded in 2014, however, with one of his best seasons, tossing 30 TDs and breaking the 4,400 yard mark.

Which Eli Manning is the real Eli Manning? Can he sustain the success in 2015?

Buy: Tony

Look, I’m in no way, shape or form a huge fan of Eli Manning. I’ve pretty much constantly ripped him over the last few years. And the idea that he’s a Hall of Famer is a bit of a stretch in my eyes (much less a first ballot Hall of Famer). And most years, I’m quite content watching Eli be the last of the “Top Tier” (or, “Slightly Better Than Picking up a Weekly Free Agent” Tier). In fact, watching two owners desperately bid him up in a 12-team, $200 auction a couple years ago because there was no other good options available was the highlight of the auction for me.

But in 2015, for the first time in a long time, Eli is NOT on my “Will not be on my team” list.

The Giants have morphed into a pass first offense in the last year, with Manning averaging nearly 42 passes per game over the second half of the season last year. A lot of that is due to Odell Beckham Jr. finally emerging on the scene in his rookie season. He had a career high in completion percentage (63.1%), and had his highest output in yards (4,410) and TDs (30) in 4-5 seasons, and had his lowest INT% (2.3%) since 2008. Add in pass catching RB Shane Vereen to the mix, and Manning will have a bevy of options for passing this year.

On top of that, some fantasy football analysts have projected Manning to have the most favorable matchup schedule this season—not terribly surprising, given that he gets two games each against the Redskins, Cowboys and Eagles, none of whom have defenses that exactly strike fear into opponents hearts.

Add it all up, and you’ve got a quarterback that if you snag him as your QB1 at his ADP of 106.8 (roughly the 10th round), you may find yourself smiling come trade deadline, as you’d have 9 rounds of RB/WR/TE to theoretically move for upgrades at other positions—possibly even at QB at that point. I would certainly consider him ahead of guys like Ryan Tannehill, Matt Stafford, and if his suspension is upheld, you could even argue ahead of a Tom Brady.

Sell: Andy

It’s hard to argue against taking Eli Manning at his ESPN ADP. The 104^th pick puts him somewhere in the 11^th round, at which point he’s not much of a risk and probably could be considered a low-risk steal.

But I’ll pass anyway.

Manning’s 2014 season was probably his second best statistically, behind 2011, when he threw for 4,933. Let’s look a little deeper. In order to achieve the lofty stats he did last season, Manning had to throw the ball more times than he ever did – and he had the4 highest completion percentage of his career.

He also had rookie-of-the-year Odell Beckham Jr. explode onto the scene in the season’s second half, making some astounding plays. I’m not sure I can give a great reason for why I feel this way, but I am probably not drafting Beckham this season – ever just have a feeling about someone? – because he feels to me like a guy who could be subject to the second-year jinx.

Victor Cruz is back, but returning from a gruesome injury. Larry Donnell has to prove that he’s going to be more consistent with another year in the system and Reuben Randle has yet to prove that he is anything more than a complementary player.

I will admit, Eli probably will have some success due to having a year’s worth of experience in the new offensive system – one in which he thrived in. And I like the undervalued signing of Shane Vereen as a solid safety-valve option for him too.

But Eli has always been more of a good, solid NFL QB and not so much a flashy fantasy one – that usually doesn’t change in a player’s 11^th season. It did last year for Manning, but I’m guessing he comes back to earth and puts up numbers more akin to his more average seasons in 2015.

Previous Buy/Sell: Chris Ivory

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