Buy or Sell: T.Y. Hilton

T.Y. Hilton recently told Indianapolis media that the Colts have three number one receivers this season – him, Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks. That’s unquestionably true about Wayne and Hilton and Nicks both have shown flashes of that kind of ability in the past. But Hilton, heading into his third season, also disappeared in many games last season, despite being the unquestioned top WR after Reggie Wayne injured his knee. So, does he step up in year three and become a true number one force? Or was 2013 the ceiling?

T.Y. Hilton
ADP: 69.4
WR: 23

Buy: Maggio

Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton has already intimated that Indy may throw more this year. Hell, he’s going to be forced into it if Ahmad Bradshaw can’t stay healthy and Trent Richardson continues to suck—neither of which would come as a surprise.

Dwayne Allen is back and guy I think will make noise, and Hakeem Nicks has at least flashed talent in the past, but Reggie Wayne is coming off knee surgery, and T.Y. Hilton is just hitting his stride as an elite NFL receiver. Hilton was a top 20 fantasy receiver despite a slightly disappointing five touchdowns last year, which I think he’ll improve on in 2014. Some of that uptick could be offset by Nicks/Allen/Wayne, which is probably why he’s the 23rd receiver off the board in ESPN ADP.

I think my ranking of Hilton at 22 is conservative, so while it’s obviously as close as it can be to ADP without hitting it on the head, I’m still buying because of Hilton’s potential to outperform his draft position. Nicks/Allen/Wayne, while stealing looks, will also require defensive attention—which I think will lead to more big plays for Hilton this season.

Sell: Andy

I fail to understand the excitement around T.Y. Hilton. There are few more boom-or-bust receivers I can remember — sure, he broke the 1,000 yard receiving mark last season but so did 23 other WRs and TEs. And he scored five touchdowns — all of them coming in two big games.

Hilton caught 82 passes on 138 targets in a season in which the aforementioned Dwayne Allen was out all year and Reggie Wayne missed nine games. He blew up in game eight, the first one after Wayne got hurt, scoring three TDs on seven catches, then added 130 yards the following week. After that, Hilton had a seven game stretch where he went for 44, 38, 46, 7, 78 and 52 yards before having a 155 yard finale. He didn’t score in the second half of the season.

This year, in addition to getting Allen and Wayne back, the Colts add Hakeem Nicks as a free agent who should be motivated to put up big numbers. Add in Coby Fleener, a second TE but long-time Andrew Luck security blanket going back to their days at Stanford, and rookie Donte Moncrief, and that feels like too many mouths to feed for Hilton to truly stand out. I smell disappointment.

ESPN has Hilton going ahead of Cordarrelle Patterson, Michael Floyd, Emmanuel Sanders, Reggie Wayne and Mike Wallace among others. All of those guys interest me more than Hilton.

At WR23 and ADP 69.4, T.Y. Hilton is ...