Buy or Sell: Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce
ADP: 63.2
TE: 4

The tight end position in 2015 consists once again of Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and … everyone else. One of the guys emerging at the top of that next tier is Travis Kelce, who put up 67 catches and five TDs as an understudy to the since-departed Anthony Fasano last year.

Now Kelce ranks as high as the third-highest TE off the board in some ADP listings and drafts. Heading into his third year on a team with a QB in Alex Smith who struggles to get the ball downfield, can Kelce live up to that billing? Or was his 2014 season the peak of his production?

Buy: Vomhof:

In the barren wasteland of fantasy tight ends, Rob Gronkowski is in a tier of his own this year. He’s a guy who gives you big weekly advantage at an otherwise week position, which is why I already made the case for grabbing him in the first round of your draft.

After Gronk, there’s Jimmy Graham, all alone in another one-man tier.

But where do you turn if you miss out on those guys or simply don’t want to pay premium prices? Sure, you could sit back on guys like Martellus Bennett, Julius Thomas or Delanie Walker in the mid rounds. But do you really want to play that way?

Why settle for singles and doubles when you could swing for the fences? I prefer the go-big-or-go-home approach, and that’s why I love Travis Kelce at his late-6th ADP.

Unlike those other guys, Kelce actually gives you a chance to hang with the guys who landed Gronk and Graham. He has that kind of upside.

Last year, Kelce finished as the No. 6 fantasy TE, despite playing fewer snaps than Chief teammate Anthony Fasano. And Fasano’s gone now, so the door is wide open for Kelce’s snaps and stats to dramatically increase.

Kelce is a physical freak, standing 6-foot-5 and 260 pounds, with 4.65 speed. He’s a poor man’s Gronk at a fraction of the cost.

Need more convincing? Ponder this: In 2014, Kelce ranked 13th in yards after catch—not among TEs, among all NFL players.

Think about that for a second. He rumbled for 512 yards after catch, only five less than Odell Beckham Jr.—and he did it on 24 fewer catches. That’s insane.

He might not be quite as consistent as some other TEs, but I want his week-winning upside in my lineup.

Sell: Andy

I’m nervous about Travis Kelce this year and I can tell you why in five words: Andy Reid and Alex Smith.

Smith is the rag-armed QB who has completed between 60 percent and 70 percent of his passes the last six years … primarily because most of his passes travel about four yards past the line of scrimmage.

Reid is the head coach who maddeningly seems to lose track of the fact that his stars often don’t touch the ball for seemingly days on end.

The combo, in my eyes, makes Kelce a risk, even as early as late as the sixth round. He’s the fourth-ranked tight end on ESPN. My friend and colleague Anthony Maggio has him ranked third. My other friend and colleague John Vomhof Jr. makes a credible case for why Kelce should be a monster this year.

I understand completely that Kelce has all the build and the look of someone you want to trust as a Gronk-to-be. But after a couple seasons of watching Reid mumble in post-game discussions about how he lost track of Jamaal Charles could only have had three touches in the second half of a close game and after the same amount of time of watching Smith complete as many TDs to WRs as I have, I just can’t see taking Kelce that high.

Case in point: Kelce had four TDs in his first eight games last season. He looked like an emerging star. He had one the rest of the season. His targets go from three to eight to two to four … up and down and up and down, yo-yoing through the season.

The talent is tantalizing, no doubt. But don’t forget that at the same time you’re taking Kelce, you could be grabbing Martellus Bennett, who had good chemistry last year with Jay Cutler. Several rounds later you could take Jordan Cameron, who feels to me like a stud and a steal in an offense with the improving Ryan Tannehill or you could take Dwayne Allen, who has yet another year of catching passes from Andrew Luck in front of him. Going four rounds after Kelce is Zach Ertz, who has similar upside. Or you could take a veteran like a Jason Witten or Antonio … well, wait until later to get Gates now that he’s out the first four.

The point is Kelce is likely to have a lot of ups and downs. The TE position is not strong this year. And I understand the reason why Kelce looks like a sexy pick. Just remember, few players and coaches have had a more maddening effect on the fantasy outlooks of their teammates and players as Smith and Reid. Buyer beware.

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