Buy or Sell: Tom Brady

Tom Brady
ADP: 79.2
QB: 10

After looking merely mortal through the first four games of 2014, Brady reeled off 29 TD passes in the last 11.5 games of his season, breaking the 4,000-yard mark for the fifth time in six seasons since he tore up his knee in 2008.

His offseason has been a tumultuous one, however, as the Patriots have dealt with Deflategate. Brady’s resulting suspension – and one would guess also his age – have conspired to deflate Brady’s draft stock, all the way down to the eighth round. Would you take a chance on the Pats’ signal caller at that spot?

Buy: Andy

Tom Brady in the eighth round? Seriously!?!?!? You could suspend him for the first half of the season and still sign me up for that.

Instead, Brady is scheduled to sit the first four games of the season after the NFL upheld his Deflategate suspension Tuesday … that is, assuming he does not actually take the issue to court and get the suspension reduced or thrown out.

The reason I will buy on Brady this year, in addition to his ridiculously low ADP, is that a pissed off Tom Brady usually is a really, really good Tom Brady. After a Monday night debacle in week four against Kansas City last season, after which people started speculating that the geriatric QB was on his last legs, Brady ran off a five-game stretch during which he threw 18 TDs to 1 INT. That works out to a pretty decent 18-to-1 TD/INT ratio, or 3.6 TDs per game.

His numbers came back down to Earth a bit after that, but he still produced five more consecutive two touchdown games, had QB ratings above 90 in nine of 10 games and eclipsed 275 yards passing in seven of those contests.

Brady is not the QB he used to be. And his supporting cast does have some holes. But you don’t have to pay the same price you used to pay for Brady either. If you wait on QB while loading up on star WRs and RBs, you’re not going to be able to do much better than Tom Brady in the seventh or eighth round. Worst case scenario, he actually misses the four games. That means he’s fresher and angrier when he finally does make it on to the field. And I do think he’s really, really pissed off.

I’ll take that in a heartbeat.

Sell: Vomhof

Hoping to draft Tom Brady and stash him on your bench for four weeks during his Deflategate suspension? Don’t bother.

First off, let’s set the record straight: This isn’t the same Brady who tossed 50 touchdown passes in 2007. In fact, he hasn’t even thrown 40 in any of the seven seasons since.

Heck, he finished last season as the No. 12 fantasy quarterback, one spot behind the great Jay Cutler—and that was in a full 16-game season. This year, he’s going to play a maximum of 12 games, placing a pretty significant cap on his fantasy production.

And, yet, for some reason, he’s still being drafted in the seventh round, roughly 30 picks ahead of Ryan Tannehill and Eli Manning—both of whom outscored him last year and neither of whom is suspended for any part of 2015.

If this was the elite Brady of years past, I’d consider stashing him, too. I’m all about compiling as many potential week-winners as possible.

But the reality is that Brady doesn’t necessarily fit that mold anymore. He’s just a good-but-not-elite fantasy QB. (And you might want to ask yourself how confident you are in Rob Gronkowski staying healthy for a full season, because when Gronk is out of the lineup, Brady because very average.)

Odds are that he’ll finish with roughly the same points per game as guys like Eli and Tannehill—but you get those guys for all 16 games, not just 12.

If Brady really starts to plunge in your draft, then sure, pull the trigger and hope he plays angry for you down the stretch. Otherwise, take a pass; you’ll be far better off taking a high-upside guy like Martavis Bryant or Allen Robinson—both of whom are going after Brady—in the seventh, and then waiting to grab Eli two or three rounds later.

Previous Buy/Sell: Joique Bell
Next Buy/Sell: Le’Veon Bell

 Loading ...