Buy or Sell: T.J. Yeldon

T.J. Yeldon
ADP: 60.4
RB: 23

T.J. Yeldon was drafted 36th overall by Jacksonville in this year’s draft after entering the draft early from Alabama, where he split carries with Eddie Lacy early in his career, and Derrick Henry in his junior year.

At 6-1, 226 pounds, he fills the potential bruiser role that many Alabama backs seem to have the reputation for, but with 4.52 speed in the 40, he doesn’t have to solely rely on running people over to be effective.

The Jaguars struggled under rookie quarterback Blake Bortles in 2014, but with a solid young core on offense, could Yeldon help turn things around for the Jaguars, and possibly help fantasy owners in 2015?

Buy: Tony

Melvin Gordon is getting a lot of attention, and Todd Gurley will likely go down as the best RB in the class, but this year, T.J. Yeldon may actually be the rookie running back to bring the most value to the table.

Early reports out of Jacksonville have consistently said that Yeldon will win the job, and he’s already on top of every depth chart I’ve checked. Not surprising, given that he had to beat out Toby Gerhart (he of 326 yards on 101 carries last year after receiving a big contract), Denard Robinson (who put up bigger numbers, but is ultimately more of a change of pace guy), and newcomer Bernard Pierce, who couldn’t beat out a suspended Ray Rice.

The Jaguars are still going to want to rely heavily on the run to keep pressure off of Blake Bortles and their young WR like Allen Robinson.

The bigger thing for Yeldon, though, is that with limited competition (from a talent perspective), he may be a “bell cow” back—meaning even if he doesn’t put up a stellar YPC, he still may be more valuable than guys going ahead of him who will likely split time, like Joique Bell (59.7, 23), Andre Ellington (59.5, 22), and even possibly Carlos Hyde (40.9, 17), Lamar Miller (37.1, 15) and Mark Ingram (31.6, 12), who I still think will lose carries to C.J. Spiller.

Sell: Andy

Forget the fact that several NFL backs from Alabama – Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson come to mind – have shown flashes of skill but mostly have been flashes in the pan.

Forget that when T.J. Yeldon was drafted, his NFL.com draft profile compared him with the boring Terrance West and quoted a scout saying he wouldn’t take Yeldon before the fifth round, adding that he’s a rotational back with “no juice to get away from anyone.”

I’m staying far away from the excitement on Yeldon because he’s playing on a team that has been bad for years with a QB who left a lot to be desired in his rookie season and because both are playing behind an offensive line that Pro Football Focus ranked 18^th overall, but 25^th as a run blocking unit.

The Jaguars are an improving-but-still-bad team, and the likelihood is that Yeldon does come in and take some portion of the starting role as a rookie. But Denard Robinson was solid when he played last year and they’ll want to keep evaluating whether he can be a big-play maker. They also have a collection of young WRs who they need to test out in increasing roles as well. I just can’t get excited about Yeldon with all of these other young, developing players and a subpar offensive line at play.

He will get to do some things, but all of these factors tell me his role is not going to warrant a pick in the first half of fantasy drafts.

Previous Buy/Sell: Alshon Jeffery
Next Buy/Sell: Frank Gore

 Loading ...