Buy or Sell: Ray Rice

Few RBs disappointed fantasy owners last season more than the previously productive Ray Rice. Few NFL players disappointed fans this offseason than the previously squeaky clean Ray Rice. It’s been a rough calendar year for the Ravens lead back and it’s led the team to bring in competition. But few backs had been as productive as Rice had the four seasons before 2013 came along. And few have the incentive Rice does to spend 2014 keeping his head down, staying quiet and focusing solely on football. So, was Rice’s 2013 indicative of a player whose best days are behind him? Or will he be the 2014 version of Josh Gordon, who served a two-game suspension and then went on to lead the league in receiving yards?

Ray Rice
ADP: 60.9
RB: 23

Buy: Andy

Ray Rice did have a disastrous 2013 season and he did follow it up with a disastrous offseason. And he’ll (kind of) pay the price for the latter by missing the first two games of the season. Despite that, or perhaps because of it, Rice is going low enough in drafts where he’s actually a steal. See, part of Rice’s struggles in 2013 were due to a hip injury that he now regrets having played through.

When healthy, the previous four years, Rice’s yards per carry averages have been 4.4, 4.7, 4.0 and 5.3 – anywhere from just under a yard to more than two yards per carry better than last year. It’s also not like he has his foot in the grave, even from the perspective of a RB. He’ll play this season at 27. He’s only eclipsed 300 carries in a season once and he still contributes in the passing game – even during his down 2013 season he chipped in 58 catches.

The Ravens added Steve Smith to go with Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta, meaning Joe Flacco again has a stronger collection of weapons. That will force defenses to again respect the passing game. It should leave Ray Rice somewhat of a forgotten man at times. And heading into week three when he’s back from suspension he’ll have fresh legs and be ready to roll. Seventh round pick? I’ll take that to the bank with this guy.

Sell: Tony

I don’t care where Rice’s average draft position is, he’s one of those guys you should have on your avoid at all costs list, and that was before he decided to go Little Mac on Glass Joe in the elevator.

Rice’s numbers in 2013? 660 yards rushing, 321 receiving. Not bad for someone who missed half the season, right? Except Rice missed one game. Still, not terrible for someone with limited touches, right? That was in 214 carries (3.1 YPC) and 58 catches (5.5 YPR).

Add in Bernard Pierce (who also didn’t have a great year last year, but has shown flashes) and rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro (who has looked good in camp), along with Rice’s two game suspension and all of the hoopla surrounding it, and I would be avoiding him until at least the last quarter of the draft, if even then.

Ray Rice's ADP is 60.8. I'll: