Buy or Sell: Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning
ADP: 30.2
QB: 4

While some would like to have seen Peyton Manning win more Super Bowl rings than he has, the 18-year NFL veteran, soon-to-be-first-ballot Hall of Fame QB has done just about everything else anyone could have asked of him during his career.

That time is winding down. But he’s back for another run in 2015. His ADP puts him at about the beginning of the fourth round in a 10-team draft. That’s low for him, but is it right? Gary Kubiak is preaching a more balanced offense in Denver this year. Does that help keep Manning healthy for a late-season run? Or does that signal the end of his days as an elite fantasy QB?

Buy: Vomhof

Is Peyton Manning on the decline? Yes.

Do the Broncos have an improved running game? Yes.

Am I ready to write off one of the great fantasy quarterbacks of all-time? Absolutely not.

Despite all of the concerns, Manning remains one of the safest QB options for 2015—and now you can get him at a discounted price.

Manning has finished among the top six fantasy QBs in each of his the past 15 seasons he has played. And he has tossed at least 4,500 yards and 33 touchdowns in each of his past five seasons.

Manning did tail off down the stretch last year, throwing just three TDs in his last four games. But he still finished the year as the No. 3 fantasy QB, tossing 4,727 yards and 39 TDs.

Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers are the clear top-two at QB this year, in a tier all their own. And, frankly, they’re the only QBs I would consider in the first three or four rounds of the draft.

That said, Peyton Manning is next on my list, without any hesitation. There’s simply no one else I feel as good about.

Russell Wilson? He had a nice 2014 season, but I don’t think his running stats are sustainable and Seattle remains a run-first club.

Drew Brees? He’s in a similar situation to Manning—a once-elite QB on the decline—only his supporting cast isn’t as strong.

Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan? Meh. I’ll stick with Manning, thanks.

Bottom line: Manning is still a great quarterback in a great situation. And if you’re worried about a late-season decline, you could still grab him at a discount in the 4th or 5th round, ride him early, then flip him mid-season for someone else you like.

Sell: Andy

Peyton Manning is one of my all-time favorites. He’s a 14-time Pro Bowler. He’s a seven-time All Pro first teamer. He’s a Super Bowl champ. He’s won me money in more than one fantasy league.

That said, I’m moving on.

John makes part of my argument for me. Is Peyton Manning on the decline? Yes. But it’s not so much that he’s just on the decline. He’s 39 – a year younger than me – and I know how I feel in the morning when I wake up or when I work out heavily the day or two days earlier. Granted, Peyton Manning is in better shape than me – by a long shot – but eventually with NFL players, Father Time wins.

And the Peyton Manning I watched play in December against Cincinnati … sadly, he’s close to done.

Manning will put up a few great games in 2015. He may even have a half or three-quarters of a close-to great season. But in addition to the aging process, he’s dealing with a team that lost Julius Thomas and has not re-signed Wes Welker. He’s got a new head coach preaching a more balanced offense — as he should — and three running backs in CJ Anderson, Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman who can and should eat up much of the game on the ground.

Manning does still have Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, but Thomas has stayed away from team activities this off-season due to his contract situation and Sanders, well, Sanders is a good receiver, but he also benefited from having the two Thomases around last season.

There are just too many factors combining to say Manning is not going to put up the numbers that have made him a consensus top one or two fantasy QB for many years. I’ll pass.

If I can’t get Rodgers or Luck early, I’m waiting on QB for someone younger and/or someone whose team is driven to move the ball through the air.

Next Buy or Sell: LeSean McCoy