Buy or Sell: Melvin Gordon

Melvin Gordon
ADP: 37.9
RB: 16

It’d been a couple years since a running back was taken in the first round of the NFL draft when the St. Louis Rams took Todd Gurley with the 10th pick overall this spring. The San Diego Chargers made it two five picks later by trading up to No. 15.

Gordon was, of course, coming off of a three-year run at Wisconsin, where he ended up with 4,915 yards and 49 TDs — all the more impressive because the first of those three seasons in Madison, Gordon was a backup.

But will Gordon’s skill set translate to the NFL?

Buy: Andy

Melvin Gordon is going in the fourth round of standard drafts to this point and he’s going to be worth every bit of that pick.

It’s not just the yards Gordon compiled for the Badgers or the TDs he scored. It’s how and when he did it. In one game last season, he put up 408 yards and four TDs – not against some Division III team in a non-conference game, but against fellow Big Ten West competitor Nebraska.

He put up 251 yards against Auburn in the Outback Bowl. These are eye-popping numbers against good to great defenses. No, Gordon is not going to be able to consistently outrun defenders like he did in college. He needs to get better at running between the tackles. But San Diego didn’t take him where it did to not give him the opportunity to do so.

Sure, Danny Woodhead may snag a third-down here and there. And he is hurt a bit by playing behind an offensive line that Pro Football Focus ranked 29th overall and 26th in the rushing game for 2014. But I think Gordon likely will be as close to a bell cow back as you can find. He is going to help that line look better and I suspect he will get more of the third-down work than some might currently expect.

NFL.com on its draft page compared Gordon with former Vikings running back Robert Smith. If you’ll recall, Smith was the type of guy who could be having a dud of a game in his first several carries and then break one or two long runs and suddenly he’s got 150 yards and a TD or two. Gordon will have plenty of those stat lines for you to enjoy during his rookie season and beyond. So, would I rather wait a round or two to snag a guy who has yet to play a down in the NFL? Perhaps. But will I ultimately bite the bullet and grab a guy who is going to see that many touches? Yep.

Sell: Vomhof

As a University of Minnesota Golden Gophers football fan, I always rooted against Melvin Gordon and the Badgers. But I promise my argument against him is nothing personal.

The Chargers invested a first-round pick in Gordon and, overall, I like him as a player. He’s strong and fast, with gazelle-like breakaway speed on long runs—a far superior all-around back than pass Wisconsin stars Montee Ball, James White and Ron Dayne.

And, yet, I’m just not totally sold on him—at least not at his current late-third-round to early-fourth round price. That’s just too rich for me.

First off, I think Gordon will be a good NFL back, but I’m not convinced he’ll be great. When there was pressure in the backfield, he too often danced and tried to kick the run outside. And, frankly, he benefitted greatly from a strong Wisconsin offensive line opening up gaping holes for him. He won’t see that in the NFL, even behind a revamped Chargers offensive line. (And it’s also worth noting that he coughed up the ball six times in his final five college games.)

Second, while many fantasy players saw San Diego as a dream landing spot for Gordon, I’m not quite so sure—at least not for his rookie season. Yes, he’ll get a crack at some significant carries, but Danny Woodhead remains entrenched as the third-down back, thus limiting Gordon’s upside. Gordon only caught 22 passes in his entire college career.

The biggest reason I’m selling Gordon, however, is that there are other guys I like more for that price —first and foremost being Frank Gore, who I think is primed for a big year in the Colts offense. Gore could easily rack up 1,200 yards and 10-12 TDs this year, whereas Gordon might be closer to 1,000 yards and six TDs.

There are also some intriguing, high-upside wide receivers going around the fourth round, including DeAndre Hopkins, Brandin Cooks and Jordan Mathews. I’d be tempted to grab one of them and wait another round or two for prime mid-round RB values like Andre Ellington, C.J. Spiller, Joseph Randle, LeGarrette Blount, Chris Ivory and Ameer Abdullah—all of whom are going two to five rounds after Gordon.

Gordon’s a talented RB prospect, but I’m passing on his hefty price tag.

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