Buy or Sell: Matt Ryan

Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers remain the Big Three when it comes to fantasy football QBs. After that there’s a mess of guys in the second and third tiers who can win you championships. Matt Ryan falls somewhere in that mix.

Even sans Tony Gonzalez, Ryan has all the skill position talent a signal caller could need to rack up money-making stats. Yet Ryan, so far in his career, seems to be just short of living up to what people are expecting. With Julio Jones back, Roddy White returning healthy and Harry Douglas now an established number three, is this the year Ryan takes his game up a notch? Or does a faulty offensive line pair with a questionable ground attack to once again leave Ryan owners frustrated?

Matt Ryan
ADP: 87
QB: 12

Buy: Anthony

If you weren’t on the Matt Ryan bandwagon early last year, you were stuck in standing room only. With two top targets in Julio Jones and Roddy White, plus a Hall of Fame tight end, Ryan was a popular choice to sneak into the top five at quarterback. Instead, his offensive line went to hell, Jones missed the season with an injury, White played hurt much of the season, and the Falcons season went bust. Yet Ryan STILL managed to finish ninth at the position in fantasy points. What does he get for his efforts? An ADP of 12th at the quarterback position.

Now certainly there’s an adjustment period coming without Tony Gonzalez as Ryan’s security blanket. And Sam Baker going down for the season in the second preseason game is a sizeable loss. But Baker only played in four games last year anyway. And Jones is back, White’s still a No. 1 receiver on most NFL teams, Harry Douglas proved himself as an injury fill-in last year, and Levine Toilolo’s at least a large body with hands at the tight end position.

Despite the loss of Baker, the offensive line should be improved with first-rounder Jake Matthews and free agent signee Jon Asamoah shoring up the right. I had Ryan encroaching on my top five at the position until the Baker injury. I dropped him to ninth afterwards. Ryan was 12th among quarterbacks in ESPN ADP prior to the Baker injury and I’ll bet he’ll drop even more now. But if injuries don’t plague the rest of the Falcons offense, you’d be foolish to bet against Ryan finishing in the top 10 after doing so with a figurative hand tied behind his back in 2013. Consider Ryan reason enough to wait on drafting your quarterback this year.

Sell: Tony

Two years ago, Matt Ryan won me two championships. A lot of people assumed he would be my target again in 2013. They were all wrong. I didn’t exactly see the complete collapse of the Falcons coming. Nor did Ryan have an absolutely terrible season. But I figured that his 2012 performance would push his value to heights that he wouldn’t match in 2013—and I was largely right, as his yardage dropped by 200, his interceptions increased by three, and his TDs dropped by six.

Not terrible, but not worth taking three or four rounds earlier than in 2012, with other options on the board. Nor is he worth grabbing with the 87th overall pick this year, most likely—and for the same reason. Interestingly, while I would be selling on his overall ADP, I might actually be buying on his overall QB rank—but more so because I would be moving others behind him (RG3, Kaepernick, Wilson, maybe Foles) rather than moving Ryan up. And there seems to me to be more legit guys who are on that second tier than in most years, especially with the defenses being forced to play softer with the rules emphasis—so you could wait on a Dalton, Cutler or Rivers (all 20-30 spots after Ryan), and possibly put up the same kind of numbers as Ryan—especially with Ryan’s offensive line not really improving that much in 2014. Worst case, draft skill positions for the first 12 rounds, and take Flacco or Palmer, and then take a flier on a Vick/Manziel/Cassel/Bridgewater late, and keep those fingers crossed. Just don’t regret passing on a guy like Kyle Rudolph, Kendall Wright or DeAndre Hopkins, just so you can lock in Ryan.

As QB12 at ADP 87 Matt Ryan is: