Buy or Sell: LeSean McCoy

LeSean McCoy
ADP: 12.5
RB: 10

LeSean McCoy spent the last couple years playing with the likes of DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Darren Sproles and Nick Foles, maybe not a Hall of Fame cast, but a solid collection of talent with a proven ability to put up yards and points.

In one of the more shocking offseason moves, Philadelphia moved McCoy to Buffalo, where he joins Sammy Watkins, Fred Jackson and a handful of lesser signal callers all trying to prove themselves. The Bills also present a significant fall in terms of the quality of the offensive line.

So does McCoy, who did not have the best season himself in 2014, still warrant a first or second round pick? Or does his significant statistical drop-off in 2014 mean buyers should beware of what this three-time Pro Bowler has left in the tank?

Buy: Vomhof

Oh, the difference a year makes.

LeSean McCoy entered last season as a serious contender for the No. 1 pick. He had piled up 2,146 total yards and 11 TDs in his first year in Chip Kelly’s offense, and he was viewed as perhaps the most naturally gifted running backs in the league.

Then he struggled last year, stumbling out of the gates behind a makeshift offensive line that was without Pro Bowl guard Evan Mathis (knee), star center Jason Kelce (sports hernia) and starting right tackle Lane Johnson (suspension). And, perhaps most notably, his role in the passing game quickly evaporated following the addition of Darren Sproles.

And then Chip Kelly shipped McCoy off to Buffalo in an offseason trade that rocked the fantasy world.

So, what does that mean for Shady entering 2015? It means he’s a strong fantasy value.

McCoy is no longer in contention for the top pick. He’s going off the board as the No. 6 running back, and I’ve even seen some rankings that have him as a late second rounder.

This is likely a case of recency bias—we just can’t get 2014 out of our heads. But it’s not like Shady is an aging running back who’s falling off the cliff; he’s still only 26 years old and, most importantly, he’s in line for heavy volume in a run-first offense.

Rex Ryan loves to play defense and run the ball, and new offensive coordinator Greg Roman built his offense around Frank Gore and the power-run game in San Francisco. These guys are going to want to pound the rock with their new star runner.

The Bills reportedly want to give McCoy 300-plus carries this season, and he’s done that each of the past two seasons.

He’s not without risk. The Bills’ offensive line struggled last year, and Shady danced too much in Philly last season.

But, with that risk baked into his price, I’ll happily grab Shady’s talent and locked-in workload in the early second.

Sell: Andy

McCoy’s value early on has him going in the late first or early second round in 10 team drafts. I’ll still pass.

McCoy, in his sixth year in the league last season, had virtually the same number of carries (312 vs 314) as he had in 2013, but he turned them into nearly 300 fewer yards (1,319 vs 1,607) and four fewer rushing TDs (five vs nine). He also caught just 28 passes, for a career low, and didn’t score through the air for the first time since his rookie season in 2009.

If that’s not enough, he also didn’t pass the eyeball test – Shady just did not look like the same guy last year who carried the ball in 2013 – and this on the team with the league’s second best offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus.

Now he goes to Buffalo, which had the third worst offensive line in 2014 and has the QB combo of EJ Manuel, Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor trying to impersonate a legitimate starter.

That tells me McCoy will get plenty of chances to rebuild his stat lines in 2015, but also will have defenses keying on him week after week after week.

No thank you.

He does get Washington and Dallas in weeks 15 and 16, giving him a chance to put up some decent numbers in championship determining weekends, but in order to win those championship games, you have to get there first.

I’ll take my chances on guys like Jeremy Hill, Melvin Gordon and Carlos Hyde, all being chosen anywhere from a couple picks to a couple rounds behind McCoy and grab someone in the second round I can feel a bit more confident in trusting.

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