Buy or Sell: Kyle Rudolph

Kyle Rudolph missed half of the 2013 season with a broken foot. During the two seasons previous, he’s shown signs of stardom, but also has disappeared for significant chunks of time. Was he the victim of poor QB play and unimaginative coaching? Or is he just a fair-to-middling player?

The Vikings seem to think he’s going to step it up a notch. The team just signed him to a lucrative five-year extension with hopes that the addition of Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator can take his game up a notch. So are you ready to jump on board the Rudolph train? Or are you a skeptic?

Kyle Rudolph
ADP: 103
TE: 9

Buy: Anthony

If you don’t pick up Jimmy Graham in the first round this season, Kyle Rudolph is the poster child for waiting on tight ends. Currently going 103^rd overall, Rudolph is the ninth tight end off the board according to ESPN ADP. In other words, you’re basically drafting his floor, which leaves plenty of room for profit.

Let’s start with the usual preseason hoopla: Rudolph just signed a significant contract extension, and he reportedly arrived at camp as a slimmed down version of his old self. Then there’s the biggie—Rudolph’s first go-round in a Norv Turner offense. Back when Vernon Davis was learning how to play football as a rookie in 2006, Norv was his offensive coordinator. Davis and the all-world Eric Johnson (sarcasm alert) combined for what would’ve been the 10th best fantasy season from a tight end that year.

From there, Antonio Gates became a superstar under Turner’s tutelage, failing to finish in the top four among fantasy tight ends for the first time in 2011 when he was seventh (then 11th in 2012). Norv then moved on to Cleveland, where he went on to make Jordan Cameron a top five fantasy tight end. Now, it’s Rudolph’s turn. The Notre Dame product will be utilized far more as a receiver, and he’s already shown a penchant to be a good one—finishing as the 10th best fantasy tight end in 2012.

Rudolph missed eight games last season with a broken foot, but now healthy, leaner, with quarterback play that can’t really be worse, and in Norv’s offense, I like Rudolph to finish in the 6-10 range among fantasy tight ends. And honestly, quarterback play is probably the only factor keeping him from making a run at the top five. In other words, the worst-case scenario (barring injury) here is that you get what you pay for with Rudolph. I’ll sign up for that every time.

Sell: Andy

Ok, Minnesota has a new offensive coordinator in guru Norv Turner. And sure, Kyle Rudolph entered camp slimmed down for what supposedly will be his new role, playing TE like Jimmy Graham does lined up as a WR. Fact is, this team still has a muddled QB situation and, despite a poor showing overall from the team as a whole, the offense still has a lot of mouths to feed.

It starts and stops with Adrian Peterson, who is now not only projected to be the bell call in the run game but is expected to add to his touches through the air. Cordarrelle Patterson showed in limited opportunities last year that he is a guy who has to touch the ball. Greg Jennings will be a nice veteran presence for whatever QB ends up starting. And Jerick McKinnon is a rookie who coaches seem excited about early in camp.

That’s not to say that Kyle Rudolph won’t get his, though the stats he’s put up the first four years is indicative of someone who shows up sometimes and disappears at others (though subpar coaching could mean this has not always been his fault). He’s the biggest target the team has, so he’ll be at least one focus in the red zone. And his recent contract extension certainly shows the team has faith in him.

So I’m not hugely turned off by his draft position. But to me, until he actually proves otherwise, he’s merely one of a jumbled mess of TEs who all belong somewhere toward the end of the draft. I wouldn’t be disappointed to end up with Rudolph between say rounds 10 and 12 as my starter, though I’d be more comfortable with him as a security blanket in case someone I’m likely to take earlier — like Rob Gronkowski, for example, gets hurt again. And I’d be just as happy with someone like Heath Miller, Jordan Reed, Eric Ebron, Tyler Eifert and a handful of other guys whose ADPs are near Rudolph’s or even a round or more lower.

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