Buy or Sell: Julio Jones

Atlanta’s Julio Jones was on fire at the beginning of 2013, tallying 41 catches in five games. Unfortunately that’s where it ended, as a foot injury cost him the rest of the season. It was a down year overall for the Falcons. But there’s still plenty of offensive firepower in Hot-lanta and Jones is just the top target. Will he pick up where he left off and justify the lofty draft position he’s garnered thus far? Or will he need time to shake off rust, leaving fantasy owners frustrated?

Julio Jones
ADP: 23.2
WR: 6

Buy: Andy

Forget the broken foot. Julio Jones is set to return to the field in 2014 and set to do so in monster form.

Jones, whose sidekick Roddy White was hobbled all season with ankle problems in 2013, lit the Georgia Dome on fire in the five games he was able to play before getting hurt. In those games he not only had 41 targets, three 100-plus yard receiving games and a pair of scores, he had 9, 14, 12, 13 and 11 targets – yes, that’s right, he had 59 targets in five games, or just under 12 per game. With Tony Gonzalez gone does anyone think that number is going to go down?

Julio Jones was quoted recently suggesting he and Roddy White can both hit the 1,500 yard mark this season. I think he’s right. Matt Ryan is a smart QB. He’s going to find his stars. And let’s not let talk of Gonzalez’ absence bringing more coverage his way. White is back and healthy and one of the few upsides of the injury-plagued season in Atlanta was the emergence of Harry Douglas as a legitimate target – he only scored twice, but he added 85 catches for 1,067 yards. So there are plenty of weapons for defenses to sweat and there is plenty of reason to believe that even as lofty as Jones’ projections are – mid-third to late-second round – that he could outperform those standards and warrant a pick at the beginning of round two. Nothing against Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant or AJ Green – they’re all great – but it’s highly possible that Jones is the second best WR in the league.

Sell: Anthony

Julio Jones is one of the NFL’s most exciting young receivers, and I feel fortunate to own him on my dynasty team that’s been to three of the last four title games. But in redraft leagues I highly doubt he’ll end up on any of my rosters this year, simply because he’s going a little too soon for my liking.

The issue for me is volume as much as his injury risk. I shouldn’t understate the fact that Jones is coming off his second right foot surgery, so will note that the higher the pick, the greater the injury risk is magnified based on the opportunity cost—the other players you could’ve taken instead. But obviously you can’t predict injuries, so I won’t dwell on the foot.

When he’s on the field, Jones is being targeted 8.32 times per game for his career. Last season, nine receivers averaged double-digit per game targets, and several more topped 8.5. The 128 targets Jones received in his one full season would’ve placed him 23rd in the league. In short, he doesn’t get enough looks from Matt Ryan to make him the best of the best at the position. The counterargument there is that Jones was actually targeted 12 times per game in his five contests last season, which would’ve put him at the top of the league had he kept that pace up over a full season.

But Tony Gonzalez is no longer there to keep defensive attention on the middle of the field, and Atlanta’s running game garners little respect these days. That’s not to say Jones doesn’t have the talent to overcome these obstacles—he most certainly does, which is why I have him ranked No. 8 at WR. But Jordy Nelson and Antonio Brown should be taken ahead of him at the position, and overall he’s going about a half round too soon for my taste. That’s why I’m selling.

At ADP 23 and WR6, Julio Jones is: