Buy or Sell: Jimmy Graham

Jimmy Graham
ADP: 29
TE: 2

Jimmy Graham has averaged 85 catches and scored 35 TDs over the last three seasons. Despite rock solid consistent production, however, the Saints traded their star TE to Seattle during the offseason for a center and a first-round draft pick.

Does he become the red zone target the Seahawks need to take the offense to the next level? Or will his production slide on a team known more for pounding the ball with Marshawn Lynch on the ground?

Buy: Vomhof

Jimmy Graham has been a dominant fantasy tight end for four years running. And, although he’s wearing a new uniform this year, he’s still locked in as a fantasy stud for 2015.

First and foremost, Graham is an absolute freak of nature on the field. At 6-foot-7 and 265 pounds, and a 4.56 forty time, he’s an imposing mismatch who forces defenses to double and even triple-team him.

Over the past four years, he has averaged 89 catches for 1,099 and 11.5 touchdowns—stats that would make him a star fantasy wide receiver, not to mention a tight end. He posted a jaw-dropping line of 86-1,215-16 in 2013, and then backed that up with a solid 85-889-10 line last year despite nagging injuries.

Despite that otherworldly production, the Saints shipped him to Seattle this offseason in exchange for center Max Unger and the 31st overall pick. Sure, things will be different for Graham in the Pacific Northwest, but this isn’t the crushing fantasy blow that some have made it out to be.

The Seahawks are a good team with a good quarterback, and Graham shouldn’t have any problem fending off the likes of Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse to be Russell Wilson’s prime target—especially in the red zone. Having Wilson and Marshawn Lynch lined up in the back field should help create ample opportunities for Graham to post double-digit TDs again this year.

Graham may not catch as many balls this year—I’d bet he lands closer to 70-75 than 85-90—but he also could see his yards per catch increase thanks to Wilson’s running ability. And it would be hard to argue with a line of 75-1,000-10.

The move to Seattle widens the gap between top tight end Rob Gronkowski and No. 2 Graham, but Graham remains in a tier of his own. Even at his current third-round ADP, Graham offers plenty of value as a locked-in every week difference in your fantasy lineup.

And, if he drops to the fourth, don’t think twice about grabbing him. He’s a steal at that price.

Sell: Andy

The question here isn’t “would I like to have Jimmy Graham on my team?” It’s “Is Jimmy Graham worth I if I have to take him at pick 29 or sooner?”

The answer is no.

After years of being with the pass-happy Saints – a team that threw the ball on nearly two-thirds of its plays in 2014, Graham is going to a team that ran the ball 53.6 percent of the time, the most in the NFL.

He, himself, admits he’s going into the season expecting to block as much as 75 percent of the time, according to reports that came out in early August.

He’s going to a division that includes four of the league’s top defenses in recent years and, while the 49ers will likely be down a bit due to offseason defections, the Rams and Cardinals have not gotten substantially worse.

He’s going to a team with far fewer options to throw to, which likely will mean more targets but also will mean less freedom to roam – I expect Graham could be magnet for coverage this season. And his QB – while not bad, is no better than equal to the Drew Brees that Graham has played with his entire career and is likely a solid step back from what Brees was during his prime.

And the Seahawks get a guy who is coming off of a season where his average yards-per-catch fell nearly four yards – and who played much of the season beat up.

You don’t really think the Saints would have gotten rid of him if they thought he was still going to be the guy going for 1,215 yards and 16 TDs, do you?

I don’t think Graham will suck. But I think his days of competing to be the top overall tight end selected are done. More likely, he still gets around 120 targets on the season, he collects somewhere around 75 passes and pushes double-digit TDs this season, but starts to slowly fade this year and into the future. There are guys at other positions I would prefer to draft in round two where he is being drafted – namely A.J. Green – and there are TEs I am willing to take a chance on later who I think have equal upside at a lesser price, such as Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Greg Olsen, or, if you want to go for a couple real deep sleepers, Kyle Rudolph and Richard Rodgers.

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