Buy or Sell: Jerricho Cotchery

Few off-seasons have been as strange as the one experienced by Carolina Panthers. Coming off a surprise trip to the playoffs, fans watched as virtually the entire WR corps was traded or allowed to leave as free agents. The team is left with TE Greg Olsen and a collection of rookies and free agents that will cobble together Cam Newton’s supporting cast for 2014. The highest expectations, arguably, have been put on 10-year veteran Jerricho Cotchery.

Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 170
WR: 67

Buy: Anthony

Carolina Panthers fans have every right to be scratching their heads as they try to figure what exactly the front office was doing when jettisoning basically every wide receiver from last year’s team in order to pick up the rag-tag group they brought in. But here’s the thing—is this crop really any worse than the quickly aging Steve Smith, the yawn-inducing Brandon LaFell, and the I-was-good-in-college Ted Ginn Jr?

No. It isn’t.

And Cam Newton managed 24 touchdown passes with that group. Yes, Greg Olsen led the way with six receiving scores, but the three aforementioned departees combined for 14. Newton could very easily have an even better season in him from a touchdown-pass standpoint, but even if it’s similar, Cotchery has every bit the chance to take the biggest chunk of those as Kelvin Benjamin does. Yes, Benjamin has the size to be a solid red zone target, and Olsen already provides that end zone threat, but Cotchery didn’t accidentally score 10 touchdowns last season—Ben Roethlisberger went Cotch’s way for a reason.

Now I’m not here advocating Cotchery as an every-week fantasy starter, but we’re talking about risk/reward here during your draft. Benjamin’s ADP is 169 overall and 54th at WR. Cotchery isn’t even in the top 200 and is 67th among wideouts. As far as I’m concerned these guys are a coin flip when it comes to fantasy production in 2014, so I’ll grab the guy I can take as Mr. Irrelevant and drop after a couple weeks if it doesn’t go well. Certainly beats taking the rookie in a spot where you’ve got to hang on to him and convince yourself it’s going to work out eventually week after week, until it gets to the point where you’ve missed out on guys who could’ve helped you as free agents because you were waiting on that Benjamin pick to work out. That’s a good way to sabotage a fantasy season.

Sell: Tony

OK, I get that Cotchery had 10 touchdowns last season for an average Steelers team. And I get that his average draft position puts him in a position where you’re hopefully taking him as a WR4 or WR5. But practically speaking, do you really want Cotchery on your team? A guy who in nine seasons before last had totaled 20 touchdowns? With a career high of six, back in 2006?

Even last year, he snagged his 10 touchdowns on 46 total catches—while playing in all 16 games. Three of those TDs came in one game (a 7-96-3 performance in New England), and seven came in a six game stretch (during which he had 7, 2, 3, 0, 2 and 5 receptions). Is that the consistency you want, even in a late round, WR4?

Playing a potentially bigger role in Carolina isn’t going to mean much for Cotchery if he gets a CB1 or CB2 on him for entire games. In Pittsburgh last season, he was the fourth or fifth receiving option on a team that once again couldn’t establish a running game to save its life. Playing second or third fiddle (behind Olsen and possibly Benjamin) on a team that still runs first would lead me to look at second or third year breakout candidates (or rookie long shots) at that point in the draft, and let some other sucker hold his breath on Cotchery each week.

Jerricho Cotchery is currently ESPN's WR 67 and ADP 170. At these rankings would you: