Buy or Sell: Doug Martin

Top 10 RBs flop in fantasy football more than any other position. But few in recent years have suffered the one year falloffs that Doug Martin did in 2013. After storming the league as a rookie in 2012, he played six mediocre games and then missed the remainder of the season with a shoulder problem.

There’s probably not going to be a lingering issue with the shoulder and few doubt that he’ll rebound to some level, assuming he stays reasonably healthy. But where does that leave his fantasy value?

He’s got a new coach, a new QB, three RBs pushing for time and a rebuilt offensive line. Whether those are good or bad things remains to be seen. So where would you draft the Muscle Hamster?

Doug Martin
ADP: 14
RB: 8

Buy: Tony

“Muscle Hamster” may be the worst nickname in the history of the NFL football world, and the Buccaneers new uniforms are uglier than their creamsicle orange/Bucco Bruce classics (but what uniforms aren’t), but I’m actually still buying Doug Martin, even though his 2013 season may have sunk more teams than Arian Foster. Even with his 3.6 yards per carry and one TD season, and Bobby Rainey pushing him, he still ranks as the 14th overall pick and the eighth running back—higher than I was hoping he would rank coming into the year, but still lower than I would put him.

The 2013 Buccaneers were a mess from day one. Greg Schiano. Josh Freeman. An MRSA breakout that sidelined a top offensive lineman and led to the kicker’s wife criticizing the team (which has to rank almost as bad as having your punter criticize the team for allowing homophobic comments while also making his own pedophilia jokes…)… nothing worked well for the team. This year, they’ve actually jettisoned several starting offensive linemen, but they added a new coaching staff, Anthony Collins and Even Dietrich-Smith to the o-line, Mike Evans to help stretch the passing game, and may be the first team ever to have improved their QB situation by bringing in Josh McCown.

All this should lead to Martin having a significantly better year in 2014 than he did in 2013—I don’t know if he’ll reach 1,900 all-purpose yards and 12 TD again, but personally I would roll the dice with Martin at the bottom of round 1 over several RB ranked higher than him, especially if the top 3 WR and Jimmy Graham are off the board.

Sell: Andy

What a difference a year makes. Some were talking about Doug Martin as a top five fantasy pick heading into drafts last year. And why not? He was coming off a season in which he ran for 1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns while adding 49 catches and another score through the air.

Last year he fell off a cliff. Sure, there was the shoulder injury. But in the six games he did play he averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, down a full yard, scored just once and fumbled twice.

A lot did go wrong in Tampa last year and I do think Martin bounces back – but not to the level of play he produced in 2012. First off, there’s more competition for carries. Martin will likely lead the team in carries and total touches, but his backups last year proved they are capable of giving him a breather, so I find it unlikely he averages 20 carries per game. Add third round pick Charles Sims to the returnees — Mike James and Bobby Rainey — and that is three potential teammates cutting into his totals. Some write-ups even suggest coaches plan to alternate backs.

Add those drawbacks to the addition of Mike Evans — added to the already solid veteran Vincent Jackson — and the signing of Josh McCown, with whom new coach Lovie Smith has a history and comfort level, and I think it means the Bucs will toss the pig a bit more than in recent years.

This isn’t to say Martin will suck. But an ADP of 14 puts him in the early-to-mid second round – pushing the first round in 12 team leagues. I’d rather wait a round or two longer and draft more of a sure thing.

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For Anthony Maggio’s Cheat Sheets, click here.

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