Donte Moncriefbuying-selling
ADP: 66.5
WR: 28

Donte Moncrief headed into the 2015 season with a lot of hype and early on he came through, putting up usable fantasy numbers through six of the first seven games.

Then Andrew Luck was injured. Things didn’t spiral down the tubes or anything like that, but Moncrief got a lot more inconsistent. He finished the uneven campaign with 64 catches, 733 yards and six TDs on 105 targets, a fine second season, but short of what his owners had hoped for after the hot start.

Now Luck is healthy and the Colts are hoping to rebound from a disappointing 8-8 season. Moncrief is projected to be one of the key pieces of that puzzle, as a complement to T.Y. Hilton and a catalyst on what will have to be a pass-heavy offense.

So what will the real Donte Moncrief look like?

John Vomhof Jr.: Buy

Moncrief is one of this year’s hottest breakout picks, and you can count me among the believers.

While he hasn’t emerged as a fantasy star yet, he did appear to be on the cusp of a breakout during his sophomore season in 2015. He reached the end zone in five of the first seven games, as he developed a nice rapport with Luck.

Then Luck got hurt and Moncrief’s performance—and the Colts’ season—suffered with a 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck and the long-forgotten Josh Freeman at the helm. The wideout ended the year with a solid-yet-unspectacular stat line.

Now, Luck’s back, and Moncrief is primed for a big year.

Just two years ago, the Colts offense was one of the league’s most prolific, putting up 28.6 points per game (ranked sixth in the NFL) before dropping to a paltry 20.8 points per game last year (ranked 24th). And it’s certainly not outlandish to expect the club to push closer to its 2014 production with a healthy Luck and improved offensive line.

But this isn’t just about the Colts, it’s about Moncrief. He looks the role of a budding star, standing 6-foot-2, 221 pounds—a near clone of Dez Bryant and Allen Robinson. He has 4.4 speed with a 39.5-inch vertical, and he has improved his route running during his first two seasons as a pro.

Plus, Moncrief has youth on his side. While entering his third NFL season, he’s still younger than 2015 draftees Kevin White, DeVante Parker and teammate Phillip Dorsett, and even 2016 draftees Josh Doctson and Sterling Shepherd.

All told, it’s not hard to envision a scenario in which Moncrief emerges as the No. 1 receiver in this offense, with the smaller T.Y. Hilton as the 1a. That’s some darn nice upside for a guy who’s coming off the board at No. 65 as the WR29.

Andy: Sell

It’s interesting that John brought up Allen Robinson as a comparable to Moncrief. I was thinking about our write-ups on the Jags breakout wideout as I studied for this one. John won that debate. There’s a strong possibility he wins this one too.

Truth is, I like Moncrief. I think he’s got a chance to be very good. He is being taken two rounds earlier than Robinson was around this time last year, so that has me a tad concerned. He does play on a team with some other weapons: Hilton and the burner Dorsett will get targets. And Dwayne Allen doesn’t suck as a TE either.

Another thing that bothers me a bit about Moncrief is he doesn’t seem to have a ton of breakaway ability, especially for someone with the speed mentioned above. His average YPC last year was 11.5 – and that wasn’t QB dependant – in the first seven games when he was putting up his strongest results, he eclipsed 12 YPC just twice. He seems to put up a lot of 5-40 games and that means if you are going to play him, you need him to score.

Again, I don’t dislike Moncrief. You could do a lot worse than spending a seventh round pick on him in a 10 team league. He’s a good player and the Colts’ run game is still largely in the hands of the ancient Frank Gore. And, frankly, I don’t think Indianapolis is going to be that good this year. So the pig will get thrown around a lot.

Just be prepared for the likelihood that, as the big receiver on this team, he may spend a lot of time doing more mundane possession-type work than fulfilling his big-play potential. They have Hilton and Dorsett to run those routes.

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