Buy or Sell: DeMarco Murray

DeMarco Murray
ADP: 10.5 (ESPN), 15 (Fantasy Football Calculator)
RB: 7 (ESPN), 10 (FFC)

DeMarco Murray was fantastic in 2014. Dallas took the training wheels off and gave Murray the keys to the car. He produced to the tune of more than 2,200 total yards and 13 touchdowns. Then the Cowboys cut him loose and let him sign with Philadelphia.

So, did Murray finally figure it out? Is he joining the truly elite of NFL running backs? Will he make Dallas regret its decision to let him go? Or will Murray fall back to the pack, proving to be a product of the league’s top offensive line?

Buy: Vomhof

DeMarco Murray was an absolute beast in 2014 and he just signed with one of the NFL’s top offensive teams in the offseason—and, yet, he’s going later in drafts than he was a year ago. Now that’s value.

Murray racked up 1,845 yards—nearly 500 more than the next best back—and 13 TDs on the ground, and he added another 416 yards on 57 catches through the air.

He was the No. 1 fantasy RB in 2014 after finishing No. 9 the previous season. And he’s a pretty safe bet to finish among the top 10 again this year.

The Eagles finished last season third in scoring, fifth in yards per game and ninth in rushing last season despite numerous injuries along the offensive line (and it certainly didn’t help that LeSean McCoy was dancing behind the line like he was wearing tap shoes). And they were even better in 2013 when they led the NFL in rushing at a jaw dropping 160.4 yards per game.

So, why is Murray only going eighth overall in ESPN drafts (and even lower on some other sites)?

Worried about injuries? That’s a popular concern but, despite his reputation for being “fragile,” Murray has played in 30 out of 32 games for the Cowboys over the past two seasons. Plus, injuries are incredibly difficult to predict—at least for anyone not named Darren McFadden or Sam Bradford.

Worried about his workload taking a toll? I get it. Last season, the Cowboys rode him like Rooster Cogburn rode his horse at the end of True Grit, giving him the sixth-most touches in NFL history. But he’s only 27 years old, and he didn’t really have much wear on his tires entering last season (touch of 190, 196 and 270 in his previous three seasons). Plus, the Eagles will keep Murray fresh by mixing in some work for Ryan Mathews.

Worried about him no longer running behind the Cowboys’ vaunted O-line? Yeah, yeah, they’re great. I get it. But guess what? The Eagles had the No. 2 line last year despite all of the injuries, according to Pro Football Focus. Murray is going to be just fine.

At the end of the day, I’ll take my chances on an elite RB in an elite offense.

Sell: Andy

I’m not touching DeMarco Murray this year – not in the first round, not in the second round, most likely not in any round.

Sure, he’s injury prone. While he played all 16 games last season for the first time (albeit nearly missing a couple with a broken hand), he’d missed 11 in the previous three seasons. I might be okay if that were the only risk, but …

He left the Cowboys and their top-of-the-league-offensive-line for the Eagles, who had the second best offensive line in the league last year – but who also cut ties this offseason with Evan Mathis, one of that line’s key cogs. If those were the only two risks, I might consider taking a chance on Murray, but …

He’s sharing time in Philadelphia this year with Ryan Mathews, who himself is a former first-round draft pick. Mathews was injured a lot during his time in San Diego, but as a rotational back, he offers a lot of the same potential strengths Murray does. If those were the only three risks, I’d consider taking Murray, perhaps on the lower end of where he’s sitting in various formats via ADP, but …

Here’s the biggie. I won’t re-write the research. Jamey Eisenberg at CBSSports.com did it just fine last year. In summary, heading into 2014, 17 RBs had eclipsed 400 carries a total of 27 times. Of those 27, five produced an increase in fantasy points the next year. The remainder saw their fantasy values decrease – many dramatically.

Fifteen had their fantasy points drop by 30 percent – 10 by 40 percent.

There are exceptions. But Murray’s past durability issues coupled with his new situation in Philadelphia would be concerns enough. He didn’t just pass the 400-touch milestone last year. He annihilated it. He had 392 carries and 57 catches in the regular season, then played in two playoff games, accumulating another 48 for a grand total of 497 touches. The Cowboys did what they should last season – ride Murray as hard and as far as they could and then let him move on to fight the odds he’s got stacked against him for another team.

There are about 30 players I’d take from four different positions I will take before I’ll even consider Murray for my teams. So he’ll probably be long gone before I have to take the time to think about it.

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