Buy or Sell: Cordarrelle Patterson

Starting to cobble together your fantasy football draft lists? Not sure where to place certain guys? We’re here to help. Throughout the next several weeks we’ll be providing the buy and sell arguments based on their average draft position at ESPN.

Cordarrelle Patterson
ADP: 65.7
WR: 23

Buy:

You’ll read a bit over the next few days on these pages about the work Turner has done as a coach in padding the stats of tight ends. That data is not wrong—he’s been good for guys like Antonio Gates and Jordan Cameron, without question.

But when he has been the offensive coordinator and not the head coach, a look at the stats generated by his players shows a couple things: RBs catch passes, the ball gets spread around a lot, and dynamic WRs break out. Last year it was Josh Gordon, who put up 87 catches, 1,646 yards and nine TDs. In 2006 the rather pedestrian duo of Arnaz Battle and Antonio Bryant put up 59 and 40 catches respectively with Alex Smith at QB on a bad San Francisco squad. The 2001 San Diego Chargers were led by Curtis Conway’s 71 catches, but Jeff Graham had another 52 and LaDainian Tomlinson had 59.

But most telling are the years 1991-93, when Turner was in Dallas. Jay Novacek and Emmitt Smith both caught a lot of passes, but Hall of Famer Michael Irvin blew up, catching 259 passes for more than 4,200 yards and 22 TDs during that span. I am not arguing that Patterson has Irvin’s drive or perhaps his results. But Patterson proved last year that if you get the ball in his hands he can make plays. Matt Cassel is no Troy Aikman, but Turner does not need star QBs to turn WRs into stars. Get Patterson. At his current ADP you won’t regret it.

— Andy

Sell:

It feels (or maybe it really is) somewhat sacrilegious as a Vikings fan to be selling on Cordarrelle Patterson—especially when at least part of my argument is admittedly kind of weak, as far as what kind of details I can get into.

But here I am, selling, not buying. Patterson is currently showing as the 23rd overall WR, and an average draft position of 66.3—and if you’re in Minnesota, or have a Viking fan in your draft, you can probably assume he’s bordering top 10 WR and more likely a third or fourth round pick. All this for a guy who totaled 470 yards and four TDs through the passing game last season. Of course, he did add five TDs outside of the passing game (three rushing and two in the return game).

But all signs point to the team expecting more from him in the passing game, which historically may mean less in the return game. As for his rushing prowess—that seemed somewhat tied to Bill Musgrave’s inability to find ways to get him the ball in “traditional” manor. Whether or not Norv Turner will really continue to use that wrinkle is yet to be seen.

As for Patterson’s performance at WR, there were rumors last year that he had trouble picking up the offense, which is one area that has me still concerned coming into 2014—will Patterson know enough of what he’s doing to be a WR1, or will he be limited to bubble screens and go routes, which would limit his effectiveness. I have heard stories from direct witnesses that do question bring into question his focus on the game, versus potentially living the lifestyle of an NFL star, and even Vikings WR Greg Jennings recently gave an interview in which I read between the lines that Patterson needs to step up, that success won’t be handed to him.

Add in the fact that he will either have a journeyman quarterback in Matt Cassel, an untested rookie in Teddy Bridgewater, or the guy that no one seems to really want to see on the field in any way in Christian Ponder, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster.

— Tony

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