Buy or Sell: C.J. Spiller

C.J. Spiller
ADP: 67
RB: 27

Sometimes it just takes a clean slate. Time will tell if that is the case for C.J. Spiller.

Spiller put in five mostly uneventful and disappointing seasons as the one-time first-round pick for Buffalo. He’s off to New Orleans with a new start and an opportunity to play with Drew Brees and Sean Payton.

Will the Superdome allow Spiller to reach his Super Potential? Or will the Big Easy just be the scene where Spiller proves he is, in fact, a Big Bust?

Buy: Andy

New Orleans fans, if you liked Darren Sproles, I think you’re going to like C.J. Spiller even more.

Yes, Spiller was mostly a disappointment through his five years in Buffalo. But he did have one pretty good season, 2012, in which he ran for 1,244 yards and caught 43 passes, turning his just over 1,700 total yards into eight TDs, as well.

He’s joined the Saints, where he’ll play on turf in a temperature-controlled stadium with a coach and QB combo that has proven it has the ability to utilize running backs who can catch out of the backfield. The difference between Spiller and Sproles is that while he’s no giant by any stretch, Spiller is big enough to make a more consistent contribution on the ground as well as through the air.

Mark Ingram will take a significant number of between the tackles carries. But Spiller is the lightning to Ingram’s thunder. The season Spiller ran for 1,244 yards he had 207 carries. He followed that up in 2013 with 202 more. Last year was injury plagued, but those numbers sound in the ballpark for what he could contribute in New Orleans.

Spiller, in Buffalo, however, never had more than 43 catches – not a bad number for a running back, but I think he’s capable of more. In three seasons as a Saint, Sproles had 86, 75 and 71 catches, tallying more than nearly 2,000 yards through the air and scoring 16 touchdown passes. With the five ground scores he added during that time, he averaged a total of seven scores a season. Figure Spiller for AT LEAST that and probably at least one or two more in an offense that I think will be both more balanced and more reliant on shorter, higher-percentage passes with Drew Brees aging and Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills gone.

ESPN has Spiller going around the seventh round. I understand people’s concerns about him, but I think he is going to outperform that number and perhaps significantly.

Sell: Vomhof

Two years ago, some experts were hyping CJ Spiller as a budding fantasy superstar. Coming off a breakout season in which he topped 1,700 total yards and eight TDs, his ADP soared to fifth overall, and some experts even argued for taking him with the No. 2 pick.

He finished the season as the RB29 while being outshined by an aging Fred Jackson.

Last year, many experts predicted a bounce back season for Spiller. His ADP crept into the mid-fourth round, eight picks before Andrew Luck was coming off the board.

He finished as the RB64, outscored by two of his own teammates: Jackson and Boobie Dixon as he limped—quite literally—to just 425 total yards. He managed only two double-digit fantasy weeks during the injury-plagued season.

How does the old saying go again? “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”

Well, are you really going to let Spiller fool you a third time?

Now with the New Orleans Saints, Spiller certainly has some upside. He could be a Darren Sproles-type fantasy back, particularly valuable in PPR leagues.

The problem? He’s not a value pick.

Spiller’s ADP at ESPN puts him in the seventh round. At Fantasy Football Calculator, he is in the fourth round, and he’s starting to go in the third round of some leagues. That’s way too rich for my taste because it leaves very little room for upside.

Spiller will catch passes, especially with Jimmy Graham now in Seattle and Pierre Thomas still unsigned. But Mark Ingram will continue to get the bulk of the work on the ground in New Orleans, which leaves too few opportunities for Spiller to pile up stats.

On top of that, I’m concerned that the Saints offense could continue to regress this season. There were times when Drew Brees showed his age last season.

I’d rather take my chances on a guy like Jonathan Stewart or LeGarrette Blount, who are going in the same range as Spiller and offer significantly more upside.

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