Buy or Sell: Brandin Cooks

Brandin Cooks
ADP: 34.1
WR: 13

The New Orleans Saints drafted Brandin Cooks in the first round of the 2014 draft and immediately plugged him into a significant role in the offense.

Cooks snagged 53 passes and three TDs in 10 games before an injury ended his season. The Saints have significantly changed their offense and Cooks stands to be the biggest beneficiary, if he can handle the role, through the air.

Will he take his game up a level? Or will the pressure of the number one WR role and the likelihood of a more balanced pass/run ratio scuttle his climb to the top of fantasy rankings?

Buy: Andy

New Orleans traded Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills this offseason, replacing them with … pretty much nobody. Sure, there are guys on the roster who will fill the holes made by Graham and Stills – there are a lot of names on paper. But the most significant offensive addition to the Saints’ roster came not at WR or TE, but at RB with C.J. Spiller.

This is indicative that the team probably will run the ball more, with Spiller and Mark Ingram taking the lead role in those areas. But make no mistake – Drew Brees will still throw the football. And Cooks will be there to catch it.

Let’s look at the math. Cooks caught 53 passes in 10 games, or 5.3 per game, which pro-rates to 85 catches for a full season. Furthermore, he was targeted 69 times – or 110 times for a hypothetical 16 game season. Those numbers are not going to go down, folks. He is the number one receiver on a team with an aging-but-still-good QB in Drew Brees and a bad defense, meaning no matter how much they want to run more they’ll still have to pass often late.

There will be plenty of opportunities for Cooks to expand on the solid start he got off to in 2014. If I have a shot at him in the fourth, or even in some cases the third, I have no problem pulling the trigger.

Sell: Vomhof

Brandin Cooks is a dynamic playmaker with a clear path to a heavy workload, so what’s not to like? For starters, his ADP.

Cooks is currently going off the board 34^th overall. As the WR13, he’s being drafted ahead of high-upside fantasy wide receivers like DeAndre Hopkins and Jordan Mathews. That’s way too rich for my taste.

He had 53 catches for 550 yards, with four all-purpose touchdowns, in 2014 before missing the final six games for thumb surgery. That’s an 85-880-7 pace—solid, but certainly not jaw-dropping.

The door is wide open for Cooks to take a leap this year with Jimmy Graham in Seattle and Kenny Stills in Miami. I could certainly see Cooks exceeding last year’s pass; 90 or even 100 catches aren’t out of the question.

Cooks will almost certainly be Drew Brees’ top target this year, but it’s also possible that the Saints will spread things around more even more than they have in recent years. C.J. Spiller may well be the biggest beneficiary of Graham’s departure, and Josh Hill, Ben Watson and Brandon Coleman all might be more involved this year. (Plus, the Saints do seem more committed than ever to running the ball.)

So therein lies the problem: Even if Cooks takes a big step forward, his upside may very well be the low-end range for guys like Hopkins and Mathews.

Cooks will be a solid fantasy contributor this year, but aim higher with your third-round pick.

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