Buy or Sell: Arian Foster

Arian Foster was off to a solid start in 2013 before injuries took a toll, ending the one-time-top-fantasy-pick-overall’s season.

He’s back and running at full strength – without his one-time backfield mate Ben Tate to steal carries. But there are still plenty of question marks hovering over the head of this aging star. It’s a new era in Houston – new coach, new QB, new blocking scheme. Can Foster rebound?

Arian Foster
ADP: 13
RB: 8

Buy: Tony

I don’t actually have a great reason to be high on Foster, so call this one somewhat of a gut feeling. In the three years before last year’s injury plagued campaign, Foster put up 5,700 yards and 47 touchdowns, while missing only three games due to injury.

Obviously a back injury is always a bit scary, but he has been cleared medically since March, and a 2010 medical study showed that NFL players didn’t suffer any significant decline after having the surgery that Foster had. The Texans lost talented (but also oft-injured) backup Ben Tate, replacing him with less talented but just as oft-injured Andre Brown. Add in a less than ideal QB situation in Houston, and you should see a heavy reliance on the run game and short passing game.

I would have no concerns considering Foster a top six back, and would love to pick him up at the end of the first or top of the second round in those leagues where top QB/WR/TE come off the board early.

Sell: Maggio

I was as high on Arian Foster as anyone last year, and felt OK about it until he got hurt and didn’t touch the football after Week 7. But yards/carry was still a solid 4.5 in his limited duty, and Foster comes back without Ben Tate to steal away carries this season—though also without Gary Kubiak and his zone-blocking scheme.

That said, he’s being drafted just a bit too high for my liking at 12th overall and as the eighth running back off the board. I don’t have much quibble with where he’s being taken among running backs, though I do believe Le’Veon Bell and Montee Ball should be ahead of him. But when you combine that with the other position players going after Foster, you’re looking at a bunch of dinosaurs playing the “must-draft-a-running-back” game. Drew Brees, Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones and Jordy Nelson are ALL non running backs I would absolutely draft before taking on the risk of Foster, and I could easily argue a longer list.

Foster could very easily put up top 10 running back numbers, but age, injury concerns and a questionable offense all provide me enough hesitancy that it’s not worth forcing Foster in the first or second round. If he falls to you in the third and you need to start drafting running backs, great. Go for it. Anything higher, though, and you’re hurting the rest of your roster.

Arian Foster is being drafted 13th overall as the 8th ranked RB. That's:

About right - he's aging but there's still a lot of mileage left on those tires. (88%, 7 Votes)
Great value - he's too good to pass up at that point. (13%, 1 Votes)
Ludicrous. After that back injury? No way I'm touching him there. (0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 8