Buy or Sell: Andre Johnson

Andre Johnson has played with some mediocre QBs, from David Carr to Case Keenum, throughout his 11-year career and all he has done was put up numbers. But as he enters year 12, it appears as though he’s tiring of that situation – he spent much of the offseason publicly pondering life away from the Texans.

The aging vet has still put up 3,005 receiving yards the past two seasons combined. Does he have another season of consistency and production in him? Or is this the year that fantasy drafters regret taking the Texans wideout?

Andre Johnson
ADP: 34.9
WR: 11

Buy: Tony

Several people I know have been down on Andre Johnson in fantasy circles for several seasons, citing his advancing age, his missing of 9 games in 2011 (and 3 in 2010), and lack of double digit touchdown seasons. And you can’t deny any of those factors. Hell, this year you can add in DeAndre Hopkins being in his second season, and playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick to the mix.

But 35th overall, and the 11th WR off the board seem a little low for me—and I’ve seen him go as late as the 5th round in mock drafts. It’s not a terrible injustice, especially for a guy who is also unhappy playing on a rebuilding team (did I forget to mention that part?). What did Johnson do last year on a 2-14 team, catching passes from noodle armed Matt Schaub and Case Keenum? Put up 109-1,407-5. The year before it was 112-1,598-4. His 2011 definitely sucked, but from 2007-2010, he averaged 8 TDs a year (even missing 10 games to injury), and the only year he didn’t put up 1,200 yards was when he missed 7 games in 1007 (he still put up 60 catches and 851 yards).

You want Antonio Brown, who has had one good fantasy season and appears to have even less help this year than last in drawing coverage away? No problem. You want to roll the dice on Randall Cobb, who has missed as many games as he’s started (12) in three years, has had zero 1,000 yard seasons, and reached 80 receptions once? OK. You want to snag Rob Gronkowski? I guess if you scoring system awards points for injuries and porn star tweets.

Me? I’ll grab the consistent Johnson (possibly as my 3rd WR, depending on the draft) and put him down for at least 95-1,200-6.

Sell: Maggio

Maybe I’m wrong, and Ryan Fitzpatrick will know where his bread is buttered the way Case Keenum did in 2013. Keenum wasn’t good by any measure, but he heaved the rock to Andre Johnson whenever he could, and Johnson turned in his seemingly-typical 100-plus catch season while clearing 1,000 yards before the calendar turned to December.

But with another new quarterback and no longer in Gary Kubiak’s offense and coming off a balky hamstring early in training camp, I just can’t bring myself to pay full price for Johnson. To be fair, I punished him too much in my rankings, dropping him as low as 24th at one point. That was overkill. But still, there’s too much to like elsewhere at the position to make Johnson the 11th receiver off the board.

I could hedge even more and say Johnson is just as good as the handful of guys I have in front of him—like Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, and Wes Welker—but even then, why risk it? Houston’s looking like a dog again in 2014, and while that doesn’t mean fantasy production will be nil, it does put another check in the “bummer” column on Johnson’s docket. So even if you think he’s just as good as the guys I mentioned and some of the others near him on my cheat sheet, let someone else take the risk that high and fill another position. One of those other guys may get back to you, or heck, maybe even Johnson will slip in your draft. At that point, go for it. But at 11, don’t go grabbing your Johnson.

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