Buy or Sell: Andre Ellington

Cardinals fans clamored all season last year for Andre Ellington to replace the nondescript Rashard Mendenhall. Ellington had many fantastic moments in 2013, but coach Bruce Arians stubbornly kept feeding his veteran the majority of the carries.

Ellington will get his chance this year. With Mendenhall mercifully retired, Ellington will take the top job and get a chance to show coaches he can put up similar numbers in a full-tim role. Do you think he’s up to the task?

Andre Ellington
ADP: 48.7
RB: 20

Buy: Anthony

Have you sent Rashard Mendenhall a thank you card yet? If not, and you’re an Andre Ellington dynasty owner, you should get on that. Mendenhall’s surprise retirement this offseason eliminated the only barrier between Ellington and fantasy stardom in 2014.

Now I’ll admit that I was actually beating the Stepfan Taylor drum last preseason, but obviously I picked up the wrong drum. Ellington was pure excitement with the football last season, but only reached the 15-touch threshold twice. I can certainly understand trying to keep your 5-foot-9 rookie back from taking a beating, but Bruce Arians can still protect his spark-plug by keeping him under 20 touches a game and keep EVERYONE happy. More than that could lead to diminishing returns, but 15-plus is plenty of opportunity for a game-breaker like Ellington, who led the league with 5.5 yards per carry last year.

No, this doesn’t make him a good RB1—you want your top guys to be workhorses. But as the 20th running back off the board in current ADP rankings, people are looking too much at the past and not enough at the future. Ellington WILL get more work. He’s too good not to. Very scientific, I know. But he showed the talent last year, and now he’s got the opportunity to pair with it. Don’t want to buy him as high as I do at 15? Fine. But if you let him slip all the way to 20, you deserve the damage he’ll do against you when you face him this season.

Sell: Andy

There’s a lot to like about Andre Ellington. He’s explosive. He’s no longer encumbered by the aforementioned Mendenhall. He was a positive 17.5 percent in something Football Outsiders calls defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) … Andre Ellington’s fantasy value is on fire. And why wouldn’t it be.

Well, let me tell you. Do you remember a guy named Jerious Norwood? Drafted by the Falcons in 2006, Norwood burst onto the scene in his first three seasons averaging 6.4, 6.0 and 5.1 yards per carry in right around 100 carries each of those campaigns. He also caught 76 passes during that stretch. Problem was every time the Falcons tried to increase his workload, Norwood would get less effective or get hurt.

I really like Ellington, I think. But he’s similar in build to Norwood — actually a touch smaller. And for some reason I can’t get past the idea that Ellington is someone who should continue to be an exciting change-of-pace guy — someone whose workload should increase over what he got last year, but who shouldn’t be an every-down, bell cow RB. I worry that too much work is going to equal injuries and minimized effectiveness. I hope he proves me wrong. But you’re talking about a guy who has a fifth round ADP in 10-team leagues and whose steam may push him yet higher before your draft. I may regret this decision, but I’ll probably look elsewhere.

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Next buy or sell: Arian Foster