Buy or Sell: Alshon Jeffery

Alshon Jeffery
ADP: 26.5
WR: 10

After a slow rookie season, Alshon Jeffery exploded into fantasy relevance with an 89 catch, seven TD season in 2013 as Brandon Marshall‘s sidekick. He put up fewer yards (1,133 compared with 1,421) and catches (85 vs 89) in 2014, but boosted his TD output to 10 as he took over as the number one guy with Brandon Marshall hurt most of the season.

Marshall is gone and so is the Marc Trestman-led team that Jeffery grew up in.

Can Jeffery have the same kind of relevance as the true number one in the new offense installed by offensive coordinator Adam Gase and head coach John Fox?

Buy: Vomhof

Alshon Jeffery has been a low-end fantasy WR1 in back-to-back seasons, and he shouldn’t have any trouble reaching that status again in 2015 with Brandon Marshall now with the New York Jets.

Jeffery finished with 89 catches for 1,421 yards and seven touchdowns in 2013, then followed that up with a stat line of 85-1,133-10 in 2014. He was the No. 9 fantasy wideout in 2013 and No. 12 in 2014.

Now, Jeffery is going off the board as the No. 10 wide receiver. Seems fair to me.

The only knock on Jeffery last year was that his yards-per-reception average fell, resulting in fewer total yards on the season. But he partially offset that decline by scoring more TDs.

In fact, Jeffery was a TD machine down the stretch, reaching pay dirt in six straight games from Week 11 through Week 16. He was fantasy’s No. 2 WR over that period, trailing only Odell Beckham Jr.

And Jeffery was incredibly consistent, recording 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 12 of 16 games. He reached double-digit fantasy points 10 times.

Now the clear No. 1 receiver in Chicago, Jeffery should be a target magnet this season. He has tallied at least 145 targets in each of the past two seasons, and he shouldn’t have any trouble reaching that mark again—especially when you consider that new offensive coordinator Adam Gase peppered Demaryius Thomas with targets in Denver.

At 6-foot-3 and 216 pounds, Jeffery has been a popular target in the red zone, too. He drew roughly the same number of red zone looks as Marshall over the past couple of seasons.

Jeffery is still only 25 years old, and he’s entering the final year of his rookie contract. He may not be a steal, but he’s appropriately valued in the late second or, ideally, early third.

Sell: Andy

Alshon Jeffery is supposedly slated to play the “Demaryius Thomas” role in the new offense being installed in Chicago by Adam Gase. Martellus Bennett, of course, is slated for the “Julius Thomas” role with either rookie Kevin White or, if White can’t get healthy, Donald Royal pegged for the Emmanuel Sanders slot.

A couple big questions come to mind: Who is going to play the Peyton Manning role and has Jeffery proven he is truly a No. 1 receiver?

The answer to the first question is Jay Cutler – but Cutler is a far cry from Manning, even as the latter’s career winds down. Sure, Cutler will probably end up somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 TDs – maybe more in this new system, though it is important to note that before 2014, Cutler hadn’t reached even 20 since 2010. Maybe Trestman really is the QB Whisperer.

The bigger concern, as I see it, is you’re looking at a guy who is big and strong, but not that fast and not that shifty. His yards-per-catch average decreased by almost three yards in 2014, as he was shouldering the lion’s share of the WR1 role. At 13.3 ypc, that put him 40th in the league for qualified WR, behind speed-burners like Rob Gronkowski, Delanie Walker, Kelvin Benjamin and the elderly Marques Colston.

If I want a guy who is going to catch 100 passes for 950 yards, I can take Jarvis Landry in the ninth round…

Okay, that’s a stretch, I admit. But the truth is, I like Jeffery more as a second WR on a good team. He excelled when Marshall was on the other side of the field sucking up coverage. I’m not sure I see Jeffery as an ideal WR1 and that means I don’t think I see him as a third round pick – and thus, he probably won’t be on any of my teams this season.

Jeffery might play the Demaryius Thomas in Gase’s new offense, but count me as one who will be hugely surprised if Jeffery’s numbers end up looking anything like the Broncos’ star’s have in recent years.

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