Buy or Sell: Calvin Johnson

Calvin Johnson
ADP: 18.5
WR 6

Calvin Johnson has spent much of the past half-decade as the league’s top WR. Over the last couple seasons, however, he’s seen injuries rob him of five games and force him into decoy roles in others. His numbers are still great, but he’s now going in the late second round of the average fantasy draft. Is he still worth taking at that price?

Buy: Tony

I understand the injury concerns with Calvin Johnson, with him missing at least two games each of the last two seasons, and being used as a decoy in a couple others last year. I get that he might be slightly past his prime, and for whatever reason, people suddenly don’t seem to love Matthew Stafford as his quarterback.

But Megatron is still Megatron. In a down year, where he basically was a non-factor for five whole games, he put up 1,077 yards and 8 TDs. And even with that down year, he’s still AVERAGING 1,553 yards and 10+ TDs per season over the last four years. And a lot of that while not having the best weapons around him—i.e., drawing double- and triple-team coverage.

I get the argument that maybe now that the talent (Golden Tate, Joique Bell, etc) is a little better, those options are now better than forcing it to Megatron in triple coverage. But over the course of the season, he will still get his.

I can see the argument for a couple of the guys currently ahead of him on the list—the Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown arguments. I can even listen to the Demaryius Thomas argument. But the potential for a sophomore slump in Odell Beckham Jr.? Jordy Nelson? With Megatron slipping to nearly the bottom of the second round? Sign me up all day long.

Sell: Andy

Calvin Johnson is still a great WR, but his stardom peaked in 2011-2012 and he’s now likely begun the slow decline.

It started in 2013, when he missed two games and played a fairly minor role in a couple others. It became slightly more pronounced in 2014, when he missed three games and was virtually a decoy in two others (three total targets in weeks four and five).

He still put up monstrous numbers, at least by the standards of most receivers in both of these seasons. More than 2,500 yards, 155 receptions and 20 TDs during that stretch is certainly nothing to sneeze at. But most of those numbers paled compared with his two previous seasons, when he put up 218 catches and 3,654 yards. A five TD campaign in 2012 proved to be fluky, and it pulled down his two-season total to a meager 21.

But the point here is after watching the physical pounding he took during the two seasons in which he looked like you might be able to argue he was the best receiver of all time, one can surmise that the beating took quite a bit out of him. He’s now had back-to-back campaigns during which he’s been beaten up. And his targets have dropped from 158 and 204 (!) in 2011 and 2012 to 156 and 128 in 2013 and 2014. The Lions also, finally, have added some talent around him, with Golden Tate serving as a 1A last year and Eric Ebron, theoretically, ready to take on a larger role from the TE position.

Don’t get me wrong – I’d still love to have Johnson on my fantasy teams this season. But I’m not longer considering him in the first couple rounds. There are younger guys – Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, A.J. Green for sure and several others I’d strongly consider – who I would take ahead of Megatron right now.

Previous Buy/Sell: Justin Forsett
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