Unless you’re in a playoff league your fantasy football season ended sometime in the last couple of weeks. Maybe you’re probably a little bit burned out and ready to set the competition aside for a couple weeks. But if you’re like me, you never really stop trying to glean that last piece of knowledge that will give you the edge you need to win your league(s).
So, to start your reading entertainment for the week, we’ve again contacted Ryan Boser, a sports blogger and staff writer for Bruno Boys, for his thoughts on the end of the 2011 fantasy season and on what might happen in the year ahead.
We’re jumping the gun here, without a doubt, since the real playoffs just got underway and the draft and free agency are still several months away. But it’s never too early to start thinking about next year.
Here’s what Ryan had to say:
Zoneblitz: Michael Vick in 2011 became the most recent poster child for chasing one really good season in fantasy drafts. Whose 2011 stat lines will you not be chasing in 2012?
Ryan Boser: After spending his first five-plus years in the league as an injury-prone change-of-pace back, I’m still trying to figure out how Reggie Bush morphed into an every-down superstar in the second half of the season. He deserves plenty of credit, but I’m going to let someone else gamble on a repeat. Also, while I’m a big fan of both Victor Cruz and Jordy Nelson, Cruz’ 108.5 yards per game over the season’s final 14 contests screams “unsustainable.” As for Nelson, his league-leading, jaw-dropping 22% touchdown rate (touchdowns/receptions) is a number that simply can’t be replicated.
Zoneblitz: Who do you see as potential sleepers for the 2012 season?
Boser: This question will largely be shaped by the draft and free agency, but on the surface, one guy who’s due for a major bounce-back is Philip Rivers. He’s too good to have performed so poorly, and I’m convinced that he was playing hurt. He has top-three potential and he’ll come at a greatly reduced rate.
People will also be quick to write off Fred Jackson, as he’s aging and coming off injury (not to mention C.J. Spiller’s late success). However, he’s the engine of the Bills’ offense and should, as usual, be a very nice draft day value.
Other than that, you have to take a look at some of the youngsters who showed promise in limited duty and figure to see their roles increase—guys like Jake Locker, Kyle Rudolph, Kendall Hunter and Jacquizz Rodgers. I’d be intrigued to see what the lighting-fast Taiwan Jones could do if Michael Bush were to move on from Oakland (because it’s only a matter of time before DMC’s next injury). Jared Cook was a major disappointment this season, but we may have just been a year early on him, as he finished very strong. Finally, one of my early favorites is Golden Tate, who should be on everybody’s radar.
Zoneblitz: Tight ends used to be a fantasy football afterthought, but with the way the game is evolving do Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham sneak into the first round of 2012 drafts?
Boser: Without question. We’ve already seen wide receivers trending up in drafts over the last few years, and the drop off in top-level tight end production is much steeper.
Zoneblitz: Once you get past Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady, what do the rest of the quarterback rankings look like at this point?
Boser: For me, Rodgers and Brees are in a league of their own. After that, I think Brady, Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford need to be the next three quarterbacks taken, and each is worthy of the three-spot. You’ll want to be the fifth guy or gal to pluck a quarterback, because in my estimation there’s a bit of a drop-off to the next tier of Eli Manning, Matt Ryan and Tony Romo. After that, you’re looking at the risk/reward wild cards like Philip Rivers, Michael Vick, and depending on about a million different moving pieces, Peyton Manning. We’re really in uncharted territory with Manning, so there’s just no way of projecting him at this point.
Zoneblitz: Rookie quarterbacks often slump a bit heading into their second season. Does Cam Newton duplicate the success he had in 2011 going forward?
Boser: You’ve come to the wrong place if you’re looking for an objective Cam Newton opinion. However, at risk of violating my restraining order, I’ll take a crack. Rushing touchdowns from quarterbacks are typically hard to replicate or project (Michael Vick dropped from nine to one last season), but with Carolina using him as their preferred goal-line back, he could easily push double-digit rushing scores again. Still, while he’s unlikely to break the NFL record (14) two seasons in a row, there’s plenty of room for him to improve as a passer, and he’s shown the determination to take the next step. If offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinksi (who once put Derek Anderson in the Pro Bowl) indeed departs, this topic becomes dicier.
Zoneblitz: Same question for Andy Dalton?
Boser: Dalton has all the makings of a fine NFL quarterback, but his fantasy prospects aren’t as bright. He struggled down the stretch and he plays in a division that sports the top three fantasy pass defenses (Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Baltimore). He’s a middling fantasy QB2.
Zoneblitz: Chris Johnson was one of the biggest disappointments of the 2011 fantasy season. Was this a contract holdout-related aberration or has the wear and tear of his first few seasons made this the new normal for him?
Boser: I’m not worried about the miles at this point, but I think the holdout excuse is going to goad a lot of drafters into elevating him again come next August. Not me. I think the jig is up. He seemed to be a terrible fit for new offensive coordinator Chris Palmer’s zone blocking scheme (Tennessee used to block man-to-man). On several occasions last year, Johnson wasn’t even the best back on his own team. He played like an indecisive pig who didn’t want to grind out the tough yard, and he no longer has money to motivate him. Even at his best, Johnson was a one-trick pony (blazing speed). He never moved the pile, and for a speed guy, he didn’t make a lot of guys miss in space. He simply found the seam and was off to the races. Once that was taken away, he was essentially useless.
Zoneblitz: Injuries have affected both Andre Johnson and Antonio Gates each of the last couple seasons to the point where both are nearing “do not draft” status on my lists. How far do they drop in your rankings?
Boser: They’re two very different guys to me. Johnson still looks the part of a top-tier performer anytime he’s on the field, while Gates runs routes like Delmon Young with a pulled groin. Really, he looks horrible, and he’s never healthy anymore (foot), so he probably falls outside the top-five tight ends for me going forward. Johnson, however, is still a top-five wide receiver in my book.
Zoneblitz: How does Adrian Peterson’s knee injury alter the running back landscape?
Boser: He was one of the five surefire guys (along with Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy and Maurice Jones-Drew). Not anymore. Clearly, we’re in wait and see mode. At this point, I think his best-case (fantasy) scenario would be to rank amongst the second-tier guys like Ryan Mathews, Matt Forte and Marshawn Lynch.
Zoneblitz: As of now how many running backs do you put at the top of your fantasy football rankings and how far do you go into a draft before thinking about “doing the opposite”?
Boser: After Foster, Rice and McCoy, I think it’s time to start looking at Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Calvin Johnson and Rob Gronkowski.
Zoneblitz: Julio Jones or Roddy White and why?
Boser: It’s still Roddy. Julio came into the league with injury and consistency concerns, and despite his freakish athleticism, he did nothing to dispel them. Over the past three seasons, Roddy leads the league in targets (523) and ranks second in receptions (300, behind Wes Welker’s 331). Moreover, he’s never missed a game in his entire seven-year career.
Zoneblitz: Mike Wallace or Antonio Brown and why?
Boser: It’s closer than most think, but I’m sticking with Wallace, who might be the fastest player in the league. While Brown outperformed him in the second half, it was due to defenses selling out to shut down Wallace. This is a league of adjustments, and now that Brown has proven himself a capable complement, I doubt that defenses will continue to let him roam free, so I see the balance of value shifting back to the more talented player (Wallace). While Wallace would be my pick, I definitely think Brown will provide more bang for your auction buck (what I mean is that the gap in their production will likely be smaller than their gap in draft position).
Zoneblitz: I debated the subject of taking defenses with a friend after one draft last fall. What is the earliest you would take a defense?
Boser: Kicker and defense are typically my last two picks. That’s not to say defenses don’t have game-changing value, but they’re completely unpredictable from year-to-year. Case in point: this year the Giants and Steelers fell outside the top ten, and the Eagles and Packers outside the top five. Meanwhile, the 49ers, Lions and Seahawks were all top-five units. I’d rather take a late-round flier on an upside running back and play the weekly matchups with my defenses.
Recent Comments