Way back in 2006, a young sports reporter walked into the doors of Fanball world headquarters wearing a freshly dry-cleaned suit looking for a full-time gig in fantasy sports. After getting a lot of weird looks from the staff for overdressing, I met with the publisher, Bo Mitchell, who after several bribes finally relented and offered me a job. These days, Bo is vice president of content at SportsData, so he’s still kind of a big deal. He also was a guest co-host with me for one glorious Sunday on ESPN 1500’s Fantasy Football Sunday last season.
At any rate, Bo’s a guy whose brain is ripe for picking. And with mock draft season here, I figured it’s time to touch base with Mr. Mitchell to talk shop. So, Bo, my first question: Assuming your top three running backs are AP, Charles and McCoy, in some order, who is fourth, why is he fourth, and would you draft him over Jimmy Graham, Peyton Manning and Calvin Johnson?
Bo:
That day in 2006 was the last time I’ve seen you over-dressed, Magsh.
Bo Mitchell
As for your question, you’ve astutely identified what seems to be the consensus top tier in this year’s drafts. From there, owners need to consider the three players you listed (Manning, Johnson, Graham) as well as a few other running backs, including Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, Eddie Lacy and probably even Montee Ball.
Typically at this point of a draft I would rather take the top player at another position rather than the fourth-best running back. I acknowledge that the “safe” running backs dry up in a hurry this year and I’d forfeit any chance of having a top-10 runner by passing on one with the fourth pick. However, “top-10” running backs go bust in fantasy football terms more than any other position. Even those top three aren’t immune.
Therefore, I’d likely lean toward Calvin Johnson. Manning’s numbers are going to regress somewhat and the quarterback position is loaded. I like Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees just as much as Peyton. All three are very safe. Graham is tempting and he’s a differentiator given the gap between him and the next-ranked tight end on most owners’ cheat sheets. But I’m not sure that gap is as canyon-esque as some folks think. For instance, if (and it’s a sizeable if) Rob Gronkowski stays healthy, he’ll post similar numbers at a fraction of the price. That’s the thing: you can get tight ends that really should put up good numbers (e.g. Julius Thomas, Vernon Davis, Jordan Cameron and Kyle Rudolph) several rounds later.
I’m torn, but if I drafted today I’d select Megatron by a hair over Graham and Forte.
Andy:
Megatron might be my favorite fantasy player in the game right now. But a couple of your former radio and Fanball colleagues have started leaning toward him not even being the top-rated WR in the game right now. Is there anyone that can even hold Johnson’s jockstrap as the top fantasy wideout?
Bo:
Yes there is. His name is Josh Gordon, but … well, we all know what happened there.
I think there’s sometimes a tendency in this industry to be different for the sake of being different with rankings. Doing the same thing as everyone else is boring and doesn’t stand out. Coming up with outside-the-box rankings gets noticed and makes for good conversation.
However, when it comes right down to it on draft day, sometimes the answer is the same as last year regardless of what compelling case can be made for taking someone “new” at the top. For me, it’s the same answer this year as it was last year and the year before that.
Who’s the best and safest wide receiver to draft? Calvin Johnson. Who’s the best and safest running back to draft? Adrian Peterson.
Nice cases can be made for Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall or maybe AJ Green as the No. 1 wideout. That’s nice. I’ll take Johnson.
Magsh:
Bo, right now I’m so under-dressed that I’m not even wearing pants.
Next question: You touched on that next tier of running backs that seems to go through Ball in terms of industry consensus. That’s seven runners, including Montee. As I’m building my cheat sheet—to be posted in the coming days on Zoneblitz.com—I’m looking at that third group and thinking that pretty much any of the next 10 or so guys could easily wind up being a top 10 runner, but has enough question marks that they could almost as easily go bust. Arian Foster, Doug Martin, Giovani Bernard, Zac Stacy—guys like that. It’s to the point where if I were drafting today, I’d consider skipping that group entirely and taking shots in the 15-25 ranked range at the position and stocking up on the high-end QBs, TEs, and WRs rather than take the risk. What’s your take on that third running back tier entering training camp?
Bo:
Coincidentally, I’m sans pants as well.
I’m with you to a certain extent on the running backs, but if I take Johnson or Graham or Manning or someone like that in the first round and then wait another round or two to take a running back, the picking is going to be very slim.
Assuming I don’t get a running back in the top two tiers, I’d probably hold my nose and grab one of those third-tier guys instead of waiting any longer. My favorite as of right now in the group you just mentioned is Arian Foster. His value has justifiably taken a nosedive because of injuries, but he’s still a touchdown machine when he’s on the field.
Andy:
The idea that I am the only one of us wearing pants makes me a bit … jealous?
At any rate, speaking of running backs, there are a few situations that are up in the air this season. Any thoughts on who wins between Gio, BenJarvus or Jeremy Hill in Cincy? Bryce Brown, CJ Spiller or Fred Jackson in Buffalo? Tre Mason or Zac Stacy in St. Louis? Frank Gore or the collection of young bucks chasing him in San Francisco? Darren McF … well, who cares about the one in Oakland. But those other ones … any surprises in store?
And are there any that I missed?
Bo:
I slipped on a nice pair of slacks in order to answer this question.
Gio wins the feature-back battle in Cincy and, frankly, Green-Ellis might not make the team. In Buffalo, I like Spiller to win the job and be more productive than last year… until he gets injured again. He’s a game-breaker, but as someone who had Spiller last season I will likely avoid the Bills running backs. Stacy is the primary running back for the Rams, and anything else you hear emanating from St. Louis at this time of year is coach speak. The 49ers backfield frightens and confuses most fantasy owners in the wake of their last few drafts. Gore’s gas tank has to be getting low and they have a number of other options, but my guess is that his perceived stock will dip so low that he becomes a good value – unless you’re in a league with some blissfully unaware fantasy owners who still draft him high because of name recognition.
You didn’t mention them, but the Jets have a bit of a wacky backfield heading into preseason. There’s a lot of committee talk, but I’ll be the guy taking Chris Johnson at his lowest value maybe ever. He’s low-risk with occasional big-reward at this point.
Magsh:
Several years back, the (only occasionally correct) adage was that you wanted to look for third-year wide receivers as your prime breakout candidates. But frankly, I’m seeing a lot of rookies ranked as sleeper fantasy contributors this year, headlined by Mike Evans and Sammy Watkins. In general, what’s your stance on rookie wideouts, and what’s your take on this year’s crop and its chances of producing multiple fantasy assets in 2014?
Bo:
I attempted to help dispel the “magical third-year wide receiver” adage several years ago. I shouted it from a mountaintop and published words about it on the interwebs. In fact, wide receivers are more likely to bust out in their second season if they are ever going to bust out. And to your point, we’ve seen quite a few quality rookie receivers in recent seasons as well. It’s fair to say, though, that if a wide receiver doesn’t become a good-to-great fantasy option by the end of his third season, he likely never will. The data bears it out.
Therefore, I’m all in favor of grabbing a rookie wide receiver in the draft. Don’t over-do it and grab three of them, but guys like Evans and Watkins look like they’ll contribute a lot right away. The guy I can’t wait to see is Brandin Cooks of the Saints. Drew Brees has a shiny, new toy.
Magsh:
OK Bo, one last question. Let’s say you’re someone who, oh, I don’t know, likes fantasy football. And let’s also say that you’re interested in supporting good causes, and that you’ll also happen to be in the Twin Cities on Saturday, August 23rd, with nothing pressing on your schedule that afternoon. What might you say to someone like that?
Bo:
You caught me totally off-guard with this last question, Magsh. I’m really not prepared to answer, but here goes…
If by chance you are not in favor of people having breast cancer and, if you are also looking for an opportunity to compete against Anthony Maggio, yours truly, and many others in a fantasy football league, then I have the prescription. 
It’s called the Breast Cancer Fantasy Football League. I created it this year to raise money for Minnesota 501(c)3 organizations in the fight against breast cancer. The entry fee is $100 and all of it… ALL of it… goes directly to the beneficiaries of The Breast Cancer Ride. The BCR is a one-day charity bike ride in the Twin Cities that has raised over $1.2 million to fight breast cancer in its first six years. We simply want to help them raise more by playing fantasy football. It’s a win-win.
For more information and to register for the league go to:
http://www.CharityEventsOfMinnesota.org/fantasyfootball
Draft day is August 23 at the Poor Richards Common House in Bloomington, MN. We’ll start at noon, but get there early for beer. Did I mention we bought two kegs and will need your help drinking it? I didn’t? Oh, well I should have probably told you that first. We hope you like beer because you can buy a $10 wristband and help us fry a few kegs while you draft your teams.
To sum up, if you are like me and have a personal reason to hate breast cancer and also happen to love playing fantasy football, this is your league. If you think you can beat Magsh and I in fantasy football and want to win a really cool trophy from Titlecraft to prove it, then immediately stop reading this and go sign up. If you enjoy beer, again you have no reason to still be reading this. Go here: http://www.CharityEventsOfMinnesota.org/fantasyfootball
Thanks, everyone. I hope to see you on August 23.
Loading ...
Recent Comments