We don’t claim to be Vegas insiders, but here are some of our takes on the lines for week 1 of the 2011 season (using lines from Vegas locks):

Andy

New Orleans at Green Bay: Over 47 – Green Bay has all the weapons it used to beat Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl and then some, as several starters including Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley return from injured reserve. New Orleans, likewise, returns all of its wide receivers, a solid tight end in Jimmy Graham and a new running back in Mark Ingram. Expect these teams to be among the top offenses in the NFC all season long and for the score to get into the low-to-mid 50s at least.

San Diego (-8.5) vs. Minnesota – Minnesota debuts a new quarterback, a new coach, a new left tackle and a new system while missing Kevin Williams off of a defense that is going through adjustments and trying to find itself in the secondary. San Diego is still stinging from a season in which it had the top offense and defense in the NFL but still managed to miss the playoffs. The team breaks its string of slow starts with a comfortable win over the Vikings.

New England (-4) at Miami – The Patriots went 14-2 in the regular season last year scoring more than 500 points again. During the offseason they improved their pass rush and overall defense by adding Albert Haynesworth and gave Tom Brady another weapon in Chad Ochocinco. The Pats also just added Brian Watters to the offensive line. Miami, on the other hand, lost both its starting running backs and did not upgrade from Chad Henne at quarterback.

Upset of the week:

Pittsburgh (+3) at Baltimore – It’s always a dogfight when these teams meet. I expect another low-scoring game with heavy emphasis on the run game. I don’t have a great reason for picking the Steelers to win this game. I don’t expect a lot of upsets this week and this one I’ll call a bit of a gut feeling.

Tony

Atlanta (-3) at Chicago – I believe this is one game where the Falcons approach of simply trying to outscore their opponents will work—the Bears defense is ok, but not good enough to stop the Falcons all day long, while I think that the Bears offense will continue to do an effective job of stopping themselves enough to give the Falcons more than a 3-point edge.

Cincinnati at Cleveland: Over 35.5 – While it is one of our Games of the Weak, I’m not convinced that either defense will be able to stop the other offense often enough to make this the lowest scoring game of the week.

Seattle at San Francisco: Under 38 – I think San Francisco can put up some points, with Frank Gore and Vernon Davis. I’m not convinced they can put up 39, which is probably the only way this game hits the over.

Upset of the week:

Minnesota (+8.5) at San Diego – Andy brings up some good points about this game. But he fails to look at the fact that the Chargers failed to address their biggest weak spot in the off-season, which will have them starting slow again. I’m not saying the Vikings pull off the upset victory—but with Adrian Peterson (who torched the Chargers for 296 yards in their last meeting, a game that Andy was at—until he left early), they can keep it closer than 8.5 points.