Bet the Mortgage: Week 8, 2019

As mentioned on this site a number of times in the past, it’s not so much getting all your picks right – it’s getting the right ones correct. Andy and Tony both went 2-2 last week, but Tony gained a chunk and Andy lost a chunk (f#$%& rain storm in Washington).

That leaves us here:

And here are the bets for week eight:

Tony – Disappointing week in my eyes–should have caught up to Andy for the season. Back with another big one this week.

$2,500 – Los Angeles Rams (-12.5, -105) over Cincinnati – As terrible as Miami is, I’m not touching a 2-4 team at -14, so have to look at the next worst team–and the Bengals fit that bill perfectly. Add in going on the road and facing a team that is still looking to get things back on track…just what the doctor ordered.

$1,000 – San Francisco (-5.5, -110) over Carolina – I’m not as big of a believer in the 49ers as some on this site, but I do think their defense may be the one to finally give Kyle Allen fits, the way they’re playing–especially with them heading across the country.

$1,000 – Denver at Indianapolis: Over 41.5 (-110) – This is the week the Broncos finally break out…and score at least 17 points…to only lose by 10.

$1,000 – Kansas City (+170 moneyline) vs Green Bay – There’s talk that Patrick Mahomes might play–which doesn’t shock me, having seen a couple guys I know recover from the same injury over 20 years ago–and even if he doesn’t, Kansas City won’t be an easy game for the Pack. This game opened with KC as the favorite and has completely flipped–but Vegas doesn’t often get one that wrong.  Probably should take the points, but what the hell.

Andy – I was stupid close to a stupid good week. Stupid rain in Stupid Washington and Stupid Giants and Cardinals not being stupid able to add one more friggin’ field goal to their total. Oh well. Still up for the year. That’s still gotta be a first.

$1,500 – Seattle (-7, -105) at Atlanta – Hmm. The Falcons are bad. They can’t stop anyone. QB Matt Ryan is likely to miss this game. And management sent the team a message that the season is basically over this week by trading WR Mohamed Sanu. Seattle is one of the few road favorites this week and with good reason. They win in a walk.

$1,000 – New England (-13, -109) vs Cleveland – Jarvis Landry might think the Browns are winning this game. I’m not sure they score. The Patriots’ defense is holding teams to minuscule points on the season. And Baker Mayfield is attempting to break the NFL interception record for QBs. Unless the Patriots come out flat, they’re going to obliterate the Browns, who keep looking, suspiciously, like the same old Browns.

$800 – Seattle at Atlanta: Under 53 – I’m usually not a big fan of betting unders, but I like this one. The Falcons are likely using a backup QB on an offense breaking in an inexperienced WR following the Sanu trade. I see them scoring less than normal. The Seahawks, given their choice, would run more than pass. I think this week they can exercise that choice. That will result in a shorter, lower-scoring-than-expected game.

$500 – New York Giants (+245 money line) at Detroit – Though they started the season with an ugly come-from-ahead tie against Arizona, the Lions were off to a solid-looking 2-0-1 start this season before Detroit started to Detroit. Now they’ve lost three straight. And this week, the team’s best cornerback, Darius Slay, says he no longer cares if he stays in Detroit after the trade deadline because the team traded teammate Quandre Diggs. The Lions should beat the Giants. And I should go on a diet. Is either going to happen?