Bet the Mortgage: Week 6, 2020

Andy started the slow crawl back to mediocrity last week with a .500 performance that left him in the black for the first time in a while. Tony had his toughest week to date in week five.

Andy: Doing this $518 at a time is going to take a while, but at least it’s one more week away from the mythical knuckle-breakers.

$1,000 – Green Bay (-1, -105) at Tampa Bay – This one would have been nice to get at the +3 the Packers opened at, but with Aaron Rodgers on fire, Davante Adams returning and Robert Tonyan emerging as a real option in the passing game, this Green Bay run feels like it’s for real. I’m not 100 percent sold on the Brady Bucs yet. He’s been alright, but nowhere near his elite days.

$1,000 – Minnesota (-4, -110) vs Atlanta – I’ve been fighting this one all week. I don’t believe in the Vikings and I usually try to avoid betting on the home team. But while the Falcons have been horrible, with a bad defense getting worse due to injury, Minnesota has merely been mostly bad. The Vikings desperately need to get themselves a young, star franchise QB, but they’re likely too good to lose this game and that would mean virtually eliminating themselves from the Trevor Lawrence derby.

$800 – Cincinnati at Indianapolis: Over 46 – Baltimore held the Bengals to three points last week. The three previous weeks, Joe Burrow led Cincinnati to 86 points, or just under 29 per week. Conversely, after giving up just 16 points in the opener against the Virtually Homeless Chargers, Cincinnati has given up 110 points, or 27.5 points per game. The Colts have a good defense, but not as good as Baltimore. And Indy will score some points in this game. This total is off. The number gets into the 50s.

$400 – Cincinnati (+320 money line) at Indianapolis – The Colts are a good team with a really solid defense, but Philip Rivers is clearly past his prime. Joe Burrow, on the other hand, usually looks like he’s adapting well to the NFL. This may or may not be the week, but at some point during this season, the Bengals are going to steal one or two games from good teams as part of their maturation process.

Tony: I foolishly put money on the Vikings game without even really thinking about it…realized midway through the 4th quarter that of course the Vikings were going to lose the game AND the bet for me.

$2,000 – Titans (-3.5, -109) over Texans – The Titans came off an unplanned bye, uncertainty about their week 5 game, potential penalties for their COVID mess, and missing a whole lot of practice–and proceeded to put a 42-16 whipping on a team that was 4-0 coming into the game. And the spread has gotten closer on this game, against a 1-4 team that fired their coach/GM, and replaced him with a re-tread coach with a 29-55 lifetime record?

$1,000 – Baltimore (-9.5, -110) over Philadelphia – It frequently amazes me just how spot on Vegas is with lines…and the fact that this line moved 2.5 points (3 points in many books) from opening at -7 really made me want to jump on the Philly side…which is a rarity that I would ever want to put money on the side of a team who’s fans I love to recall like to eat horse $%^ after big wins. But looking at their team…just can’t do it. They’re 1-5 ATS in their last 6, 1-6 ATS at home in their last 7…they’re just not good.

$1,000 – Cleveland at Pittsburgh: Over 51 (-105) – I so wish I had jumped on this at the opening total of 44.5.  This one could STILL hit the over by the 3rd quarter. [NOTE: I almost put this as Falcons/Vikings at the under 53 for two reasons…first, the season opening borefest I witnessed first hand last year, and second it’s the perfect storm for one of my favorite betting theories–two teams with the obvious same strengths (in this case offense) against their opponent’s same weakness (defense)…bet the opposite of what SHOULD happen…a move I played to perfection on 11/18/2007 in Vegas when a terrible Vikings offense met a terrible Raiders offense in a game that most had pegged as 13-10…but alas, won’t do it today because…Vikings]

$600 – Cincinnati (+315 moneyline) at Indianapolis – There are a few moneyline bets I like this week (Jacksonville, Washington, Cleveland), but none are paying out like the Bengals, who are rightfully the underdogs, but have been playing well enough that they could easily beat a suspect Colts team.