Bet the Mortgage: Week 4, 2020

Tony said he didn’t want to keep going back and forth between double-digit wins and double-digit losses. He succeeded, bringing on a four-digit loss instead. Andy, on the power of managing to lose a huge figure on the Vikings losing, but not by enough, still managed to have his best week so far this season, keeping his losses in the triple digits. … Take That, Vegas.

Andy – It’s got to turn around, it’s got to turn around …

$1,000 – Chicago (+2.5, -110) vs Indianapolis – Riddle me this. The Colts are favored in Chicago? I don’t get it. Neither of these are great teams, though the Bears are 3-0 so far. And they’ve switched to their semi-competent QB in Nick Foles. So, why is the home team an underdog by about the amount Vegas usually bumps teams as a home-field advantage? I’m sure there’s a reason, but I don’t get it. Oh, yeah, Bears win.

$1,000 – Atlanta at Green Bay: Over 56.5 (-110) – Aaron Rodgers is on fire. The Falcons pants are on fire, but they have been scoring a lot of points. Matt Ryan won’t match Rodgers point for point, but should score enough to keep the pressure on and to make this interesting.

$1,000 – Seattle (-6.5, -110) at Miami – I want to do some research on this, but haven’t yet had time, but the whole “west coast team traveling east” thing doesn’t seem to be having as much impact this season. This is simply a case of two unevenly matched teams. Miami is improving, but is not yet good and the Seahawks are showing themselves a contender, this time with Russell Wilson leading the way instead of riding on the coattails of a great defense.

$300 – L.A. Chargers (+270 money line) at Tampa Bay – I don’t much like this prediction. None of the upsets really does much for me this week. But the Chargers, going back in time as far as I can remember without looking things up, have managed to occasionally throw the league a curveball by winning games in which they should have no chance, and vice versa. I doubt it happens here, but our unwritten rules say I have to pick an upset.

Tony – Last week is exactly why I don’t bet on Vikings games in real life–even with a -1.5 spread, they manage to lose the game AND the bet for me.

$2,000 – Green Bay (-7.5, +100) vs Atlanta – Another week, another big bet on a seemingly impossible game to lose. If the Pack want to be like my Vikings, they’ll win by four to prevent me from winning the bet, but still winning the game.

$1,000 – Kansas City (-7, +100) vs New England – If memory serves, the Chiefs pretty much dismantled Cam Newton Version 2.0 last week–and he had a defense and supposedly three pretty good running backs with him. I read somewhere this week that Bill Belichick is the master at taking away what your quarterback does best–but what if he just is the best?

$1,000 – Green Bay vs Atlanta: Over 56.05 (-110) – I’m going to go for the rare (for me) double dip on this one, because it worked for me last week–two teams who are great at putting up points, just less great at stopping others from doing so. Can’t figure out why the total has moved down a point since it opened–and this guarantees a Packer 17-14 victory, to cost me both bets.

$500 – Washington (+700) over Baltimore – Do I think this is going to happen? No. But is there a scenario where it could?  Sure…both teams could lose their starting quarterback’s early…